---
title: "GOAT Contender case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "GOAT Contender ($499.92) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 117.69% over 202 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [GOAT Contender](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · GOAT Contender

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender?window=all)

Price · $499.92

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $447.42 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 117.69% · 202 openings, odds method

Variance · 193.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 95.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 172 openings · below min

30 days · 202 openings · below min

since tracking started · 202 openings · below min

-0.5% 168.5% 337.5%

**Small sample.** 202 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender?window=7d) | 172 | 129.40% ±207.6 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender) | 202 | 117.69% ±191.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/goat-contender?window=all) | 202 | 117.69% ±191.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 202 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [2017 National Treasures Green Patrick Mahomes II RC PATCH AUTO /15 #161 PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2017-national-treasures-green-patrick-mahomes-ii-rc-patch-auto-15-161-psa-9) | 1 in 10,000 | $360K | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [2000 Playoff Contenders Tom Brady ROOKIE AUTO DNA #144 PSA 9 MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2000-playoff-contenders-tom-brady-rookie-auto-dna-144-psa-9-mint) | 1 in 10,000 | $360K | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [2020 Panini Prizm Red Prizms Tom Brady AUTO DNA 10 1/3 #255 PSA 9 MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2020-panini-prizm-red-prizms-tom-brady-auto-dna-10-1-3-255-psa-9-mint) | 1 in 2,500 | $180K | 16.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [2000 Bowman Chrome Refractor Tom Brady ROOKIE #236 PSA 9 MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2000-bowman-chrome-refractor-tom-brady-rookie-236-psa-9-mint) | 1 in 2,500 | $90K | 8.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [2017 National Treasures NFL Gear Patrick Mahomes II ROOKIE PATCH AUTO /25 PSA 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2017-national-treasures-nfl-gear-patrick-mahomes-ii-rookie-patch-auto-25-psa-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $62.5K | 14.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Tom Brady Signed Expos M & N Jersey w/ inscription - LE 11/12 - Fanatics AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-signed-expos-m-and-n-jersey-w-inscription-le-11-12-fanatics-auth) | 1 in 1,000 | $44.4K | 9.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Joe Montana, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes Autographed Duke Full Color Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/joe-montana-tom-brady-and-patrick-mahomes-autographed-duke-full-color-football) | 1 in 500 | $6,000 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Tom Brady Patriots Autographed Authentic Pro Helmet w/ Multi Inscriptions /112 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-patriots-autographed-authentic-pro-helmet-w-multi-inscriptions-112) | 1 in 500 | $5,160 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Patrick Mahomes & Travis Kelce Autographed Lunar Eclipse Speed Authentic Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-and-travis-kelce-autographed-lunar-eclipse-speed-authentic-helmet) | 1 in 333 | $3,600 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [Tom Brady Montreal Expos Autographed Mitchell & Ness Gray Authentic Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-montreal-expos-autographed-mitchell-and-ness-gray-authentic-jersey) | 1 in 200 | $3,360 | 3.8% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× |
| [Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) | 1 in 100 | $2,880 | 6.4% | 3 | 2.0 | 1.49× |
| [Patrick Mahomes Kansas City Chiefs Autographed Super Bowl LVIII Duke Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-kansas-city-chiefs-autographed-super-bowl-lviii-duke-football) | 1 in 100 | $2,400 | 5.4% | 0 | 2.0 | 0.00× |
| [Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-signed-autographed-red-nike-super-bowl-jersey-jsa-auth) | 1 in 67 | $2,160 | 7.2% | 5 | 3.0 | 1.65× |
| [NFL PRO LINE Women's Patrick Mahomes Red Kansas City Chiefs Team Player Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nfl-pro-line-womens-patrick-mahomes-red-kansas-city-chiefs-team-player-jersey) | 1 in 20 | $156 | 1.7% | 13 | 10.1 | 1.29× |
| [Facsimile Autographed Tom Brady New England Blue Reprint Laser Auto Football Jersey Size Men's XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/facsimile-autographed-tom-brady-new-england-blue-reprint-laser-auto-football-jersey-size-mens-xl) | 1 in 20 | $100 | 1.1% | 15 | 10.1 | 1.49× |
| [POP Football: Patriots - Tom Brady (SB Champions LIII) Funko Vinyl Figure (Bundled with Compatible Box Protector Case) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pop-football-patriots-tom-brady-sb-champions-liii-funko-vinyl-figure-bundled-with-compatible-box-protector-case) | 10.0% | $36.00 | 0.8% | 16 | 20.2 | 0.79× |
| [Funko Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs) NFL Pop! Series 6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-patrick-mahomes-ii-chiefs-nfl-pop-series-6) | 15.0% | $24.00 | 0.8% | 41 | 30.3 | 1.35× |
| [Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-the-inspiring-story-of-one-of-footballs-greatest-quarterbacks-football-biography-books) | 60.0% | $9.00 | 1.2% | 107 | 121.2 | 0.88× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[2000 Bowman Chrome Refractor Tom Brady ROOKIE #236 PSA 9 MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2000-bowman-chrome-refractor-tom-brady-rookie-236-psa-9-mint) Hidden $500 $90K 180.0x 2026-11-06 06:16 UTC

[Tom Brady Montreal Expos Autographed Mitchell & Ness Gray Authentic Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-montreal-expos-autographed-mitchell-and-ness-gray-authentic-jersey) Hidden $500 $3,360 6.72x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) [Code:666 800$ LB FREE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Code%3A666%20800%24%20LB%20FREE) $500 $2,880 5.76x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) Hidden $500 $2,880 5.76x 2026-11-07 22:37 UTC

[Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) [Revolut id @woxpro](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Revolut%20id%20%40woxpro) $500 $2,880 5.76x 2026-11-03 07:14 UTC

[Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-signed-autographed-red-nike-super-bowl-jersey-jsa-auth) [Code:666 800$ LB FREE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Code%3A666%20800%24%20LB%20FREE) $500 $2,160 4.32x 2026-11-07 22:38 UTC

[Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-signed-autographed-red-nike-super-bowl-jersey-jsa-auth) Hidden $500 $2,160 4.32x 2026-11-07 22:36 UTC

[Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-signed-autographed-red-nike-super-bowl-jersey-jsa-auth) [Arrrbaccos](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Arrrbaccos) $500 $2,160 4.32x 2026-11-06 06:24 UTC

[Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-signed-autographed-red-nike-super-bowl-jersey-jsa-auth) Hidden $500 $2,160 4.32x 2026-11-04 14:33 UTC

[Patrick Mahomes Signed Autographed Red Nike Super Bowl Jersey - JSA AUTH other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patrick-mahomes-signed-autographed-red-nike-super-bowl-jersey-jsa-auth) Hidden $500 $2,160 4.32x 2026-11-03 07:13 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=goat-contender)

[Funko Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs) NFL Pop! Series 6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-patrick-mahomes-ii-chiefs-nfl-pop-series-6) Hidden $500 $24.00 0.05x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[Tom Brady Montreal Expos Autographed Mitchell & Ness Gray Authentic Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-montreal-expos-autographed-mitchell-and-ness-gray-authentic-jersey) Hidden $500 $3,360 6.72x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-the-inspiring-story-of-one-of-footballs-greatest-quarterbacks-football-biography-books) Hidden $500 $9.00 0.02x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-the-inspiring-story-of-one-of-footballs-greatest-quarterbacks-football-biography-books) [Code:666 800$ LB FREE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Code%3A666%20800%24%20LB%20FREE) $500 $9.00 0.02x 2026-11-07 22:41 UTC

[NFL PRO LINE Women's Patrick Mahomes Red Kansas City Chiefs Team Player Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nfl-pro-line-womens-patrick-mahomes-red-kansas-city-chiefs-team-player-jersey) Hidden $500 $156 0.31x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-the-inspiring-story-of-one-of-footballs-greatest-quarterbacks-football-biography-books) Hidden $500 $9.00 0.02x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-the-inspiring-story-of-one-of-footballs-greatest-quarterbacks-football-biography-books) Hidden $500 $9.00 0.02x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[Tom Brady New England Patriots Autographed 2022 - Present Nike Limited Jersey other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-new-england-patriots-autographed-2022-present-nike-limited-jersey) [Code:666 800$ LB FREE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Code%3A666%20800%24%20LB%20FREE) $500 $2,880 5.76x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[Funko Patrick Mahomes II (Chiefs) NFL Pop! Series 6 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-patrick-mahomes-ii-chiefs-nfl-pop-series-6) Hidden $500 $24.00 0.05x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

[Tom Brady: The Inspiring Story of One of Football's Greatest Quarterbacks (Football Biography Books) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tom-brady-the-inspiring-story-of-one-of-footballs-greatest-quarterbacks-football-biography-books) Hidden $500 $9.00 0.02x 2026-11-07 22:40 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $500 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $90K (180.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt