--- title: "Green Apple case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Green Apple ($14.88) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.47% from 12 items with odds, observed 89.45% over 776 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple rendered: 2026-11-11T21:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Green Apple](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Green Apple A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple?window=all) Price · $14.88 Advertised RTP · 89.47% · EV $13.31 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 89.45% · 776 openings, odds method Variance · 11.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 48 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 83.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 28 openings · below min 7 days · 90.90% ±26.21 626 openings 30 days · 89.45% ±23.54 776 openings since tracking started · 89.45% ±23.54 776 openings -0.5% 93.3% 187.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple?window=24h) | 28 | 62.26% ±123.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple?window=7d) | 626 | 90.90% ±26.2 | +0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple) | 776 | 89.45% ±23.5 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/green-apple?window=all) | 776 | 89.45% ±23.5 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 776 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Nike Zoom Mercurial Vapor 16 Elite FG Heritage Black Solar Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-zoom-mercurial-vapor-16-elite-fg-heritage-black-solar-red) | 1 in 286 | $390 | 10.3% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.47× | | [IShowSpeed Signed Limited Edition Prime other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ishowspeed-signed-limited-edition-prime) | 1 in 200 | $360 | 13.5% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [CR7 Golden Ball Signed by Cristiano Ronaldo Soccer Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cr7-golden-ball-signed-by-cristiano-ronaldo-soccer-ball) | 1 in 200 | $349 | 13.1% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [IShowSpeed Speed 2025 Topps Now WWE #15SSP Royal Rumble Super Short Print PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ishowspeed-speed-2025-topps-now-wwe-15ssp-royal-rumble-super-short-print-psa-9) | 1 in 133 | $240 | 13.5% | 1 | 5.8 | 0.17× | | [Portugal National Team 2022/23 Stadium Home (Cristiano Ronaldo) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/portugal-national-team-2022-23-stadium-home-cristiano-ronaldo) | 1 in 100 | $156 | 11.7% | 8 | 7.8 | 1.03× | | [Funko Pop! iShowSpeed Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-ishowspeed-figure) | 1 in 50 | $60.00 | 9.0% | 26 | 15.5 | 1.68× | | [CRISTIANO RONALDO LEGACY EAU DE PARFUM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cristiano-ronaldo-legacy-eau-de-parfum) | 1 in 50 | $55.20 | 8.3% | 14 | 15.5 | 0.90× | | [IShowSpeed Warp Black Tee other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ishowspeed-warp-black-tee) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 | 6.8% | 27 | 23.3 | 1.16× | | [IShowSpeed Trading Card Printed Signature other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ishowspeed-trading-card-printed-signature) | 1 in 33 | $24.00 | 5.4% | 18 | 23.3 | 0.77× | | [Hot Chip Challenge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-chip-challenge) | 1 in 33 | $18.00 | 4.1% | 25 | 23.3 | 1.07× | | [Prime Hydration ISHOWSPEED Limited Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prime-hydration-ishowspeed-limited-edition) | 1 in 20 | $8.40 | 3.2% | 34 | 38.8 | 0.88× | | [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) | 78.9% | $0.20 | 1.2% | 611 | 612.3 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=green-apple) [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $14.88 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Prime Hydration ISHOWSPEED Limited Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prime-hydration-ishowspeed-limited-edition) Hidden $14.88 $8.40 0.56x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $14.88 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $14.88 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Hot Chip Challenge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-chip-challenge) Hidden $14.88 $18.00 1.21x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [IShowSpeed Trading Card Printed Signature other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ishowspeed-trading-card-printed-signature) [SnupsBar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SnupsBar) $14.88 $24.00 1.61x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Hot Chip Challenge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-chip-challenge) Hidden $14.88 $18.00 1.21x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $14.88 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Prime Hydration ISHOWSPEED Limited Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prime-hydration-ishowspeed-limited-edition) Hidden $14.88 $8.40 0.56x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) [Nic21](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nic21) $14.88 $0.20 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:16 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.88 | 89.47% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.47 on average: an expected loss of $10.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt