---
title: "Hero case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Hero ($48.74) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 85.00% over 801 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:50Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Hero](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Hero

A box on Cases.gg (Collectibles ), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero?window=all)

Price · $48.74

Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $43.62 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.00% · 801 openings, odds method

Variance · 16.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 90.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 122 openings · below min

7 days · 87.36% ±30.37 667 openings

30 days · 85.00% ±27.71 801 openings

since tracking started · 85.00% ±27.71 801 openings

-0.5% 64.0% 128.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero?window=24h) | 122 | 56.83% ±71.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero?window=7d) | 667 | 87.36% ±30.4 | −0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero) | 801 | 85.00% ±27.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hero?window=all) | 801 | 85.00% ±27.7 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 801 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Medicom x Hajime Sorayama x Marvel Iron Man Metropolis Variant Ver Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/medicom-x-hajime-sorayama-x-marvel-iron-man-metropolis-variant-ver-figure) | 1 in 1,000 | $3,500 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Hot Toys Marvel Avengers Age of Ultron Iron Man Hulkbuster Collectible Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-toys-marvel-avengers-age-of-ultron-iron-man-hulkbuster-collectible-figure) | 1 in 500 | $1,600 | 7.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.62× |
| [Bearbrick Marvel Spider-Man No Way Home The Amazing Spider-Man 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-marvel-spider-man-no-way-home-the-amazing-spider-man-1000) | 1 in 500 | $1,280 | 5.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [Bearbrick x Marvel Iron Man Mark 85 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-marvel-iron-man-mark-85-1000) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,240 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [A Bathing Ape Bape Sta Marvel Comics Thor (2022) (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-bathing-ape-bape-sta-marvel-comics-thor-2022-us-mens-12) | 1 in 250 | $1,178 | 10.8% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| [Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) | 1 in 200 | $900 | 10.3% | 8 | 4.0 | 2.00× |
| [Hot Toys Marvel Avengers Endgame Nano Gauntlet (Hulk Version) Full Scale Light-Up Replica Statue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-toys-marvel-avengers-endgame-nano-gauntlet-hulk-version-full-scale-light-up-replica-statue) | 1 in 200 | $629 | 7.2% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× |
| [Funko Pop! Marvel Avengers End Game Iron Man 18 Inch Funko Shop Exclusive Figure #02 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-marvel-avengers-end-game-iron-man-18-inch-funko-shop-exclusive-figure-02) | 1 in 200 | $600 | 6.9% | 6 | 4.0 | 1.50× |
| [A Bathing Ape Bape Sta Marvel Comics Dr. Strange (US Men's 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-bathing-ape-bape-sta-marvel-comics-dr-strange-us-mens-9) | 1 in 200 | $540 | 6.2% | 3 | 4.0 | 0.75× |
| [Jason Freeny XXRAY DC Comics 4D Batman 10 Inch Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jason-freeny-xxray-dc-comics-4d-batman-10-inch-figure) | 1 in 100 | $360 | 8.3% | 3 | 8.0 | 0.37× |
| [LEGO DC Comics Super Heroes Batmobile and the Two-Face Chase Set 6864 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-dc-comics-super-heroes-batmobile-and-the-two-face-chase-set-6864) | 1 in 50 | $250 | 11.5% | 20 | 16.0 | 1.25× |
| [LEGO Marvel Infinity Gauntlet Set 76191 Collectible Thanos Glove with Infinity Stones other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-marvel-infinity-gauntlet-set-76191-collectible-thanos-glove-with-infinity-stones) | 1 in 50 | $99.00 | 4.5% | 25 | 16.0 | 1.56× |
| [LEGO Brick Headz DC Comics The Joker Set 41588 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-brick-headz-dc-comics-the-joker-set-41588) | 1 in 50 | $78.00 | 3.6% | 14 | 16.0 | 0.87× |
| [Captain America's Shield other](https://gambatracker.com/items/captain-americas-shield) | 1 in 50 | $44.00 | 2.0% | 13 | 16.0 | 0.81× |
| [Jason Freeny XXRAY DC Comics The Flash #04 Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jason-freeny-xxray-dc-comics-the-flash-04-figure) | 1 in 50 | $28.00 | 1.3% | 16 | 16.0 | 1.00× |
| [Marvel Thor Battle Hammer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marvel-thor-battle-hammer) | 1 in 50 | $17.00 | 0.8% | 18 | 16.0 | 1.12× |
| [Mattel Games ​UNO Flip! other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mattel-games-uno-flip) | 1 in 25 | $8.49 | 0.8% | 29 | 32.0 | 0.91× |
| [Spider Web other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spider-web) | 80.0% | $1.00 | 1.8% | 636 | 640.8 | 0.99× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Hot Toys Marvel Avengers Age of Ultron Iron Man Hulkbuster Collectible Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-toys-marvel-avengers-age-of-ultron-iron-man-hulkbuster-collectible-figure) Hidden $48.74 $1,600 32.83x 2026-11-05 15:05 UTC

[A Bathing Ape Bape Sta Marvel Comics Thor (2022) (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-bathing-ape-bape-sta-marvel-comics-thor-2022-us-mens-12) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $48.74 $1,178 24.17x 2026-11-09 19:44 UTC

[A Bathing Ape Bape Sta Marvel Comics Thor (2022) (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-bathing-ape-bape-sta-marvel-comics-thor-2022-us-mens-12) Hidden $48.74 $1,178 24.17x 2026-11-06 23:03 UTC

[A Bathing Ape Bape Sta Marvel Comics Thor (2022) (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/a-bathing-ape-bape-sta-marvel-comics-thor-2022-us-mens-12) [Pingvins](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Pingvins) $48.74 $1,178 24.17x 2026-11-03 20:36 UTC

[Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) Hidden $48.74 $900 18.47x 2026-11-09 19:48 UTC

[Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) Hidden $48.74 $900 18.47x 2026-11-09 03:22 UTC

[Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) Hidden $48.74 $900 18.47x 2026-11-07 06:07 UTC

[Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) Hidden $48.74 $900 18.47x 2026-11-06 23:01 UTC

[Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) Hidden $48.74 $900 18.47x 2026-11-06 23:01 UTC

[Kith x Marvel X-Men Retro Comic & Wolverine Skateboard Deck (Set of 2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kith-x-marvel-x-men-retro-comic-and-wolverine-skateboard-deck-set-of-2) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $48.74 $900 18.47x 2026-11-05 15:04 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=hero)

[Spider Web other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spider-web) Hidden $48.74 $1.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Spider Web other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spider-web) Hidden $48.74 $1.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[LEGO Brick Headz DC Comics The Joker Set 41588 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-brick-headz-dc-comics-the-joker-set-41588) [rekack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/rekack) $48.74 $78.00 1.60x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Marvel Thor Battle Hammer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/marvel-thor-battle-hammer) Hidden $48.74 $17.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[LEGO Brick Headz DC Comics The Joker Set 41588 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-brick-headz-dc-comics-the-joker-set-41588) Hidden $48.74 $78.00 1.60x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Spider Web other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spider-web) [rekack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/rekack) $48.74 $1.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Captain America's Shield other](https://gambatracker.com/items/captain-americas-shield) Hidden $48.74 $44.00 0.90x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Mattel Games ​UNO Flip! other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mattel-games-uno-flip) Hidden $48.74 $8.49 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Spider Web other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spider-web) [rekack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/rekack) $48.74 $1.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[Spider Web other](https://gambatracker.com/items/spider-web) Hidden $48.74 $1.00 0.02x 2026-11-11 07:03 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $48.74 | 89.49% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,600 (32.83x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt