--- title: "Hinata’s Spike case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hinata’s Spike ($20.04) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.47% from 18 items with odds, observed 114.07% over 300 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike rendered: 2026-11-11T23:08Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Hinata’s Spike](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Hinata’s Spike A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike?window=all) Price · $20.04 Advertised RTP · 89.47% · EV $17.93 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 114.07% · 300 openings, odds method Variance · 8.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 19 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 86.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 112.65% ±36.98 228 openings 30 days · 114.07% ±32.24 300 openings since tracking started · 114.07% ±32.24 300 openings 75.0% 177.3% 279.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike?window=24h) | 36 | 185.71% ±93.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike?window=7d) | 228 | 112.65% ±37.0 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike) | 300 | 114.07% ±32.2 | +1.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hinatas-spike?window=all) | 300 | 114.07% ±32.2 | +1.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 306 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Haikyuu × MIKASA Limited Collaboration Volleyball Karasuno Nekoma Model Set of 2 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyuu-mikasa-limited-collaboration-volleyball-karasuno-nekoma-model-set-of-2) | 1 in 400 | $880 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Haikyu!! - Tobio Kageyama ARTFX J 1/8 Scale Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-tobio-kageyama-artfx-j-1-8-scale-figure) | 1 in 100 | $225 | 12.5% | 7 | 3.1 | 2.29× | | [Haikyu!! Season 4 To the Top Premium Box Set Blu-ray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-season-4-to-the-top-premium-box-set-blu-ray) | 1 in 100 | $225 | 12.5% | 8 | 3.1 | 2.61× | | [Haikyu!! - Kenma Kozume 1/8 Scale ARTFX J Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-kenma-kozume-1-8-scale-artfx-j-figure) | 1 in 100 | $193 | 10.8% | 4 | 3.1 | 1.31× | | [Haikyu!! Season 4 To the Top Blu-ray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-season-4-to-the-top-blu-ray) | 1 in 50 | $69.00 | 7.7% | 7 | 6.1 | 1.14× | | [Haikyuu!! Volleyball Court Displate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyuu-volleyball-court-displate) | 1 in 50 | $58.00 | 6.5% | 2 | 6.1 | 0.33× | | [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Fight Framed Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-fight-framed-print) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 | 5.0% | 15 | 9.2 | 1.63× | | [Haikyu!! - Figural Bag Clip Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-figural-bag-clip-set) | 1 in 33 | $25.00 | 4.2% | 9 | 9.2 | 0.98× | | [Funko Pop! Animation: Haikyu! - Shoyo Hinata other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-haikyu-shoyo-hinata) | 1 in 33 | $19.00 | 3.2% | 10 | 9.2 | 1.09× | | [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Team T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-team-t-shirt) | 1 in 20 | $16.00 | 4.5% | 21 | 15.3 | 1.37× | | [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Team Mouse Pad other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-team-mouse-pad) | 1 in 20 | $15.00 | 4.2% | 9 | 15.3 | 0.59× | | [Haikyu!! - Iwaizumi 6 Inch Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-iwaizumi-6-inch-plush) | 1 in 20 | $11.00 | 3.1% | 11 | 15.3 | 0.72× | | [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Group Mug other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-group-mug) | 1 in 13 | $8.00 | 3.3% | 23 | 22.9 | 1.00× | | [Haikyu!! - Shoyo Hinata Crow 5 Inch Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-shoyo-hinata-crow-5-inch-plush) | 1 in 13 | $6.00 | 2.5% | 17 | 22.9 | 0.74× | | [Haikyu!! - Koshi Sugawara Nendoroid Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-koshi-sugawara-nendoroid-pin) | 10.0% | $3.60 | 2.0% | 37 | 30.6 | 1.21× | | [Haikyuu Sticker Pack of 50 Stickers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyuu-sticker-pack-of-50-stickers) | 12.5% | $3.00 | 2.1% | 38 | 38.3 | 0.99× | | [Haikyu!! - Kozume Cat Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-kozume-cat-keychain) | 15.0% | $2.20 | 1.8% | 39 | 45.9 | 0.85× | | [Haikyu!! Lanyard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-lanyard) | 16.3% | $2.00 | 1.8% | 49 | 49.7 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=hinatas-spike) [Haikyu!! - Koshi Sugawara Nendoroid Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-koshi-sugawara-nendoroid-pin) Hidden $20.04 $3.60 0.18x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Team T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-team-t-shirt) Hidden $20.04 $16.00 0.80x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [Haikyu!! - Kozume Cat Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-kozume-cat-keychain) Hidden $20.04 $2.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Fight Framed Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-fight-framed-print) Hidden $20.04 $30.00 1.50x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Group Mug other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-group-mug) Hidden $20.04 $8.00 0.40x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [Haikyu!! - Kozume Cat Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-kozume-cat-keychain) [PedoPolle](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/PedoPolle) $20.04 $2.20 0.11x 2026-11-11 23:08 UTC [Haikyu!! - Tobio Kageyama ARTFX J 1/8 Scale Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-tobio-kageyama-artfx-j-1-8-scale-figure) Hidden $20.04 $225 11.23x 2026-11-11 23:07 UTC [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Team T-Shirt other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-team-t-shirt) Hidden $20.04 $16.00 0.80x 2026-11-11 23:07 UTC [Haikyu!! - Koshi Sugawara Nendoroid Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-koshi-sugawara-nendoroid-pin) Hidden $20.04 $3.60 0.18x 2026-11-11 23:07 UTC [Haikyu!! - Karasuno Fight Framed Print other](https://gambatracker.com/items/haikyu-karasuno-fight-framed-print) Hidden $20.04 $30.00 1.50x 2026-11-11 23:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.04 | 89.47% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.47 on average: an expected loss of $10.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt