--- title: "Holiday Cheer case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Holiday Cheer ($1.03) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.30% from 18 items with odds, observed 77.52% over 2,760 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer rendered: 2026-11-11T20:34Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Holiday Cheer](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Holiday Cheer A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer?window=all) Price · $1.03 Advertised RTP · 89.30% · EV $0.92 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 77.52% · 2,760 openings, odds method Variance · 7.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69.11% ±34.19 230 openings 7 days · 79.26% ±10.74 2,332 openings 30 days · 77.52% ±9.87 2,760 openings since tracking started · 77.52% ±9.87 2,760 openings 34.5% 69.3% 104.0% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 89.30% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (67.65% – 87.39%, 2,760 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer?window=24h) | 230 | 69.11% ±34.2 | −1.2σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer?window=7d) | 2,332 | 79.26% ±10.7 | −1.8σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer) | 2,760 | 77.52% ±9.87 | −2.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/holiday-cheer?window=all) | 2,760 | 77.52% ±9.87 | −2.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,760 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Womens Christmas Pajamas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/womens-christmas-pajamas) | 1 in 200 | $24.00 | 13.0% | 7 | 13.8 | 0.51× | | [DIY Ornament Crafting Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diy-ornament-crafting-kit) | 1 in 200 | $20.00 | 10.9% | 10 | 13.8 | 0.72× | | [Premium Red Wrapping Paper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/premium-red-wrapping-paper) | 1 in 125 | $9.20 | 8.0% | 20 | 22.1 | 0.91× | | [Christmas Teddy Bear Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-teddy-bear-plush) | 1 in 100 | $8.50 | 9.2% | 26 | 27.6 | 0.94× | | [Reindeer Antlers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/reindeer-antlers) | 1 in 100 | $8.00 | 8.7% | 21 | 27.6 | 0.76× | | [Reindeer Slippers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/reindeer-slippers) | 1 in 83 | $6.00 | 7.8% | 37 | 33.1 | 1.12× | | [Miniature Decorative Christmas Stockings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/miniature-decorative-christmas-stockings) | 1 in 80 | $5.00 | 6.8% | 32 | 34.5 | 0.93× | | [Christmas Themed Washi Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-themed-washi-tape) | 1 in 67 | $3.60 | 5.9% | 34 | 41.4 | 0.82× | | [Christmas Reusable Straws other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-reusable-straws) | 1 in 57 | $3.00 | 5.7% | 43 | 48.3 | 0.89× | | [Christmas Confetti other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-confetti) | 1 in 50 | $2.50 | 5.4% | 55 | 55.2 | 1.00× | | [Cadbury Hot Chocolate Drink Powder Mix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cadbury-hot-chocolate-drink-powder-mix) | 1 in 29 | $1.50 | 5.7% | 97 | 96.6 | 1.00× | | [Red Christmas Gift Bow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/red-christmas-gift-bow) | 1 in 29 | $1.00 | 3.8% | 116 | 96.6 | 1.20× | | [Festive Cupcake Liners other](https://gambatracker.com/items/festive-cupcake-liners) | 1 in 13 | $0.30 | 2.4% | 218 | 207.0 | 1.05× | | [Red Christmas Ornament other](https://gambatracker.com/items/red-christmas-ornament) | 1 in 13 | $0.25 | 2.0% | 205 | 207.0 | 0.99× | | [Christmas Sticker Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-sticker-pack) | 12.5% | $0.10 | 1.4% | 346 | 345.0 | 1.00× | | [Christmas Tree Eraser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-tree-eraser) | 12.5% | $0.10 | 1.4% | 330 | 345.0 | 0.96× | | [Gingerbread Man Cookie Cutter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gingerbread-man-cookie-cutter) | 20.0% | $0.05 | 1.1% | 563 | 552.0 | 1.02× | | [Sour Cherry Candy Cane other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sour-cherry-candy-cane) | 21.5% | $0.03 | 0.7% | 600 | 593.4 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=holiday-cheer) [Christmas Sticker Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-sticker-pack) Hidden $1.03 $0.10 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Gingerbread Man Cookie Cutter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gingerbread-man-cookie-cutter) Hidden $1.03 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Gingerbread Man Cookie Cutter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gingerbread-man-cookie-cutter) Hidden $1.03 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Sour Cherry Candy Cane other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sour-cherry-candy-cane) Hidden $1.03 $0.03 0.03x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Gingerbread Man Cookie Cutter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gingerbread-man-cookie-cutter) Hidden $1.03 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Christmas Tree Eraser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-tree-eraser) [lala](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/lala) $1.03 $0.10 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:33 UTC [Christmas Sticker Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-sticker-pack) Hidden $1.03 $0.10 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC [Festive Cupcake Liners other](https://gambatracker.com/items/festive-cupcake-liners) Hidden $1.03 $0.30 0.29x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC [Christmas Sticker Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-sticker-pack) Hidden $1.03 $0.10 0.10x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC [Gingerbread Man Cookie Cutter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gingerbread-man-cookie-cutter) Hidden $1.03 $0.05 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:32 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.03 | 89.30% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.30 on average: an expected loss of $10.70 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt