--- title: "Home Gym case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Home Gym ($147.61) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 103.88% over 72 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym rendered: 2026-11-12T00:49Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Home Gym](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Home Gym A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym?window=all) Price · $147.61 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $132.10 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 103.88% · 72 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 66 openings · below min 30 days · 72 openings · below min since tracking started · 72 openings · below min 46.5% 108.5% 170.5% **Small sample.** 72 openings and 3.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym?window=7d) | 66 | 110.66% ±59.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym) | 72 | 103.88% ±56.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/home-gym?window=all) | 72 | 103.88% ±56.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 72 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Peloton Tread other](https://gambatracker.com/items/peloton-tread) | 1 in 200 | $3,600 | 13.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Peloton Indoor Exercise Bikes, Original Peloton Bike and Bike+ other](https://gambatracker.com/items/peloton-indoor-exercise-bikes-original-peloton-bike-and-bike) | 1 in 100 | $1,600 | 12.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Elliptical Machine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/elliptical-machine) | 1 in 67 | $1,430 | 16.2% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.85× | | [NordicTrack T Series other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nordictrack-t-series) | 1 in 50 | $965 | 14.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [ProForm 50 Lb. Rapid Strike Dumbbell Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/proform-50-lb-rapid-strike-dumbbell-set) | 1 in 50 | $329 | 5.0% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.69× | | [MERACH Under Desk Elliptical Machine for Home other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merach-under-desk-elliptical-machine-for-home) | 1 in 33 | $240 | 5.5% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× | | [FLYBIRD Weight Bench other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flybird-weight-bench) | 1 in 20 | $196 | 7.4% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× | | [CAP Barbell Dumbbell Rack - 3-Tier for 5-50LB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cap-barbell-dumbbell-rack-3-tier-for-5-50lb) | 1 in 20 | $180 | 6.8% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Barbell Weight Set for Lifting other](https://gambatracker.com/items/barbell-weight-set-for-lifting) | 1 in 20 | $155 | 5.9% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Optimum Nutrition Gold Standard 100% Whey Protein Powder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/optimum-nutrition-gold-standard-100-whey-protein-powder) | 1 in 20 | $95.00 | 3.6% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [CAP Barbell Rubber Olympic Bumper Plate - 55lbs - Single other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cap-barbell-rubber-olympic-bumper-plate-55lbs-single) | 1 in 20 | $80.00 | 3.0% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× | | [CTRL Meal Replacement Shake with Real Cereal Pieces – Cocoa Crunch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ctrl-meal-replacement-shake-with-real-cereal-pieces-cocoa-crunch) | 1 in 20 | $44.00 | 1.7% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Peloton Light Weights \| Set of Two Sweat-Proof Weights - 3lb other](https://gambatracker.com/items/peloton-light-weights-set-of-two-sweat-proof-weights-3lb) | 1 in 20 | $30.00 | 1.1% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.11× | | [Optimum Nutrition Micronized Creatine Monohydrate Powder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/optimum-nutrition-micronized-creatine-monohydrate-powder) | 1 in 20 | $24.94 | 0.9% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [Peloton Glass Water Bottle \| 16 oz. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/peloton-glass-water-bottle-16-oz) | 1 in 20 | $21.00 | 0.8% | 2 | 3.6 | 0.56× | | [CTRL - Trademark Shaker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ctrl-trademark-shaker) | 1 in 20 | $12.94 | 0.5% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [Amazon Basics Jump Rope other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-jump-rope) | 10.0% | $8.79 | 0.7% | 12 | 7.2 | 1.67× | | [Protein Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/protein-bar) | 30.0% | $2.50 | 0.6% | 27 | 21.6 | 1.25× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Peloton Tread other](https://gambatracker.com/items/peloton-tread) Hidden $148 $3,600 24.39x 2026-11-05 03:39 UTC [Elliptical Machine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/elliptical-machine) Hidden $148 $1,430 9.69x 2026-11-08 00:38 UTC [Elliptical Machine other](https://gambatracker.com/items/elliptical-machine) Hidden $148 $1,430 9.69x 2026-11-05 03:40 UTC [NordicTrack T Series other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nordictrack-t-series) Hidden $148 $965 6.54x 2026-11-07 00:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=home-gym) [Amazon Basics Jump Rope other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-jump-rope) Hidden $148 $8.79 0.06x 2026-11-10 06:45 UTC [Amazon Basics Jump Rope other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-jump-rope) Hidden $148 $8.79 0.06x 2026-11-10 06:45 UTC [Optimum Nutrition Micronized Creatine Monohydrate Powder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/optimum-nutrition-micronized-creatine-monohydrate-powder) Hidden $148 $24.94 0.17x 2026-11-10 06:45 UTC [Amazon Basics Jump Rope other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-jump-rope) Hidden $148 $8.79 0.06x 2026-11-10 06:45 UTC [Amazon Basics Jump Rope other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-jump-rope) Hidden $148 $8.79 0.06x 2026-11-10 06:45 UTC [CAP Barbell Rubber Olympic Bumper Plate - 55lbs - Single other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cap-barbell-rubber-olympic-bumper-plate-55lbs-single) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $148 $80.00 0.54x 2026-11-10 06:45 UTC [Protein Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/protein-bar) Hidden $148 $2.50 0.02x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [Amazon Basics Jump Rope other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-jump-rope) Hidden $148 $8.79 0.06x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [Protein Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/protein-bar) Hidden $148 $2.50 0.02x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [Protein Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/protein-bar) Hidden $148 $2.50 0.02x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $148 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,600 (24.39x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt