--- title: "Horologist case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Horologist ($193.58) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 76.05% over 247 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist rendered: 2026-11-11T17:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Horologist](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Horologist A box on Cases.gg (Watches), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist?window=all) Price · $193.58 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $173.25 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.05% · 247 openings, odds method Variance · 85.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 286 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 169 openings · below min 30 days · 247 openings · below min since tracking started · 247 openings · below min -0.5% 96.0% 192.5% **Small sample.** 247 openings and 0.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist?window=7d) | 169 | 50.99% ±139.8 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist) | 247 | 76.05% ±115.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/horologist?window=all) | 247 | 76.05% ±115.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 247 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 15510ST other](https://gambatracker.com/items/audemars-piguet-royal-oak-15510st) | 1 in 10,000 | $53.4K | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hublot Big Bang Sang Bleu other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hublot-big-bang-sang-bleu) | 1 in 2,000 | $42.4K | 12.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Daytona Stainless Steel White Dial other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-daytona-stainless-steel-white-dial) | 1 in 2,000 | $40K | 11.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Submariner Date other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date) | 1 in 2,000 | $32K | 9.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II Rose Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-rose-gold) | 1 in 2,000 | $23.2K | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-36) | 1 in 1,429 | $17.3K | 7.0% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [IWC Pilot Chronograph Top Gun other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iwc-pilot-chronograph-top-gun) | 1 in 1,429 | $10.5K | 4.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Omega Seamaster 300 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/omega-seamaster-300) | 1 in 1,250 | $7,260 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Omega Seamaster Aqua Terra other](https://gambatracker.com/items/omega-seamaster-aqua-terra) | 1 in 1,000 | $7,000 | 4.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Omega Seamaster Planet Ocean other](https://gambatracker.com/items/omega-seamaster-planet-ocean) | 1 in 667 | $5,300 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-blue-phoenix) | 1 in 500 | $3,550 | 4.1% | 2 | 0.5 | — | | [TAG Heuer Carrera Calibre 16 CV2014 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-carrera-calibre-16-cv2014) | 1 in 400 | $2,118 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) | 1 in 100 | $1,350 | 7.8% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× | | [Casio G-Shock x One Piece GA-110JOP-1A4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-one-piece-ga-110jop-1a4) | 1 in 200 | $860 | 2.5% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× | | [Seiko Alpinist other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seiko-alpinist) | 1 in 125 | $636 | 2.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [Casio G-Shock x HIDDEN.NY Jewelry Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-hidden-ny-jewelry-case) | 1 in 67 | $600 | 5.2% | 6 | 3.7 | 1.62× | | [Watch Movement Automatic Mechanical Movement Replacement other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-movement-automatic-mechanical-movement-replacement) | 20.1% | $30.00 | 3.5% | 45 | 49.6 | 0.91× | | [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) | 25.0% | $18.99 | 2.7% | 63 | 61.8 | 1.02× | | [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) | 25.0% | $9.99 | 1.4% | 66 | 61.8 | 1.07× | | [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) | 25.0% | $5.50 | 0.8% | 59 | 61.8 | 0.96× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Rolex Oyster Perpetual 36 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-oyster-perpetual-36) Hidden $194 $17.3K 89.37x 2026-11-04 14:24 UTC [Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-blue-phoenix) Hidden $194 $3,550 18.34x 2026-11-10 03:30 UTC [Casio G-Shock Blue Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-blue-phoenix) Hidden $194 $3,550 18.34x 2026-11-08 15:00 UTC [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) Hidden $194 $1,350 6.97x 2026-11-05 15:04 UTC [BAPE Type 9 BAPEX Watch Silver other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-type-9-bapex-watch-silver) Hidden $194 $1,350 6.97x 2026-11-05 13:30 UTC [Casio G-Shock x One Piece GA-110JOP-1A4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-one-piece-ga-110jop-1a4) Hidden $194 $860 4.44x 2026-11-05 15:18 UTC [Seiko Alpinist other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seiko-alpinist) Hidden $194 $636 3.29x 2026-11-05 23:48 UTC [Seiko Alpinist other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seiko-alpinist) Hidden $194 $636 3.29x 2026-11-05 15:18 UTC [Casio G-Shock x HIDDEN.NY Jewelry Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-hidden-ny-jewelry-case) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $194 $600 3.10x 2026-11-10 03:42 UTC [Casio G-Shock x HIDDEN.NY Jewelry Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-hidden-ny-jewelry-case) Hidden $194 $600 3.10x 2026-11-08 15:02 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=horologist) [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $194 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Watch Movement Automatic Mechanical Movement Replacement other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-movement-automatic-mechanical-movement-replacement) Hidden $194 $30.00 0.15x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) Hidden $194 $9.99 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) Hidden $194 $9.99 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) Hidden $194 $9.99 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Single Watch Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/single-watch-case) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $194 $9.99 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Watch Movement Automatic Mechanical Movement Replacement other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-movement-automatic-mechanical-movement-replacement) Hidden $194 $30.00 0.15x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) Hidden $194 $18.99 0.10x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [Silicone Watch Band Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silicone-watch-band-loop) Hidden $194 $5.50 0.03x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC [Watch Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/watch-box) Hidden $194 $18.99 0.10x 2026-11-10 14:18 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $194 | 89.50% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $17.3K (89.37x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt