--- title: "Hot Wheels case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hot Wheels ($10.88) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 19 items with odds, observed 79.59% over 1,793 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac rendered: 2026-11-12T00:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Hot Wheels](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Hot Wheels A box on Cases.gg (Hot wheels), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac?window=all) Price · $10.88 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $9.74 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.59% · 1,793 openings, odds method Variance · 17.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 43 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 201 openings · below min 7 days · 75.54% ±22.29 1,362 openings 30 days · 79.59% ±19.43 1,793 openings since tracking started · 79.59% ±19.43 1,793 openings -0.5% 52.8% 106.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac?window=24h) | 201 | 47.30% ±58.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac?window=7d) | 1,362 | 75.54% ±22.3 | −1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac) | 1,793 | 79.59% ±19.4 | −1.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hot-wheels-maniac?window=all) | 1,793 | 79.59% ±19.4 | −1.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,793 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Hot Wheels RLC RWB Porsche 930 Spectraflame other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-rlc-rwb-porsche-930-spectraflame) | 1 in 1,000 | $865 | 8.9% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.12× | | [Hot Wheels 99 Honda Civic Type R (EK9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-99-honda-civic-type-r-ek9) | 1 in 667 | $450 | 6.9% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Hot Wheels Nissan Skyline GT-R (R34) Spectraflame other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-nissan-skyline-gt-r-r34-spectraflame) | 1 in 500 | $420 | 8.6% | 1 | 3.6 | 0.28× | | [Hot Wheels 2020 Porsche 918 Spyder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-2020-porsche-918-spyder) | 1 in 250 | $180 | 7.4% | 6 | 7.2 | 0.84× | | [Hot Wheels Super Treasure Hunt 2023 Mighty K other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-super-treasure-hunt-2023-mighty-k) | 1 in 200 | $180 | 9.2% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× | | [Hot Wheels x Tesla Cybertruck 1:10 Scale RC Car (2021 Version w/ Cyberquad) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-x-tesla-cybertruck-1-10-scale-rc-car-2021-version-w-cyberquad) | 1 in 200 | $165 | 8.5% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× | | [Hot Wheels Fast & Furious Premium 5 Pack Silvia Maxima 2023 PSL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-fast-and-furious-premium-5-pack-silvia-maxima-2023-psl) | 1 in 200 | $154 | 7.9% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× | | [Hot Wheels x Daniel Arsham Porsche 356 Bonsai Speedster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-x-daniel-arsham-porsche-356-bonsai-speedster) | 1 in 200 | $130 | 6.7% | 13 | 9.0 | 1.45× | | [Hot Wheels 1995 Honda Integra Type R other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-1995-honda-integra-type-r) | 1 in 200 | $84.65 | 4.3% | 4 | 9.0 | 0.45× | | [Hot Wheels Toy Trucks & Cars 50-Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-toy-trucks-and-cars-50-pack) | 1 in 200 | $80.00 | 4.1% | 14 | 9.0 | 1.56× | | [Hot Wheels RLC Exclusive 1991 BMW M3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-rlc-exclusive-1991-bmw-m3) | 1 in 200 | $72.72 | 3.7% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.12× | | [Hot Wheels Lamborghini Aventador Coupe / Huracan LP610-4 2 Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-lamborghini-aventador-coupe-huracan-lp610-4-2-pack) | 1 in 200 | $58.42 | 3.0% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× | | [Hot Wheels Pop Culture Barbie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-pop-culture-barbie) | 1 in 200 | $48.88 | 2.5% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× | | [Hot Wheels Elite 64 Series Mercedes-Benz 300 SL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-elite-64-series-mercedes-benz-300-sl) | 1 in 200 | $44.11 | 2.3% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.12× | | [Hot Wheels Bugatti Bolide other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-bugatti-bolide) | 1 in 200 | $17.49 | 0.9% | 7 | 9.0 | 0.78× | | [Hot Wheels Dodge Charger Hellcat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-dodge-charger-hellcat) | 1 in 20 | $9.95 | 5.1% | 97 | 89.7 | 1.08× | | [Hot Wheels Pagani Zonda R other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-pagani-zonda-r) | 1 in 20 | $7.47 | 3.8% | 114 | 89.7 | 1.27× | | [Hot Wheels Super Speed Coloring Book other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-super-speed-coloring-book) | 14.6% | $3.79 | 5.7% | 270 | 262.7 | 1.03× | | [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) | 69.0% | $0.05 | 0.4% | 1,210 | 1237.2 | 0.98× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Hot Wheels RLC RWB Porsche 930 Spectraflame other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-rlc-rwb-porsche-930-spectraflame) Hidden $10.88 $865 79.50x 2026-11-06 17:55 UTC [Hot Wheels RLC RWB Porsche 930 Spectraflame other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-rlc-rwb-porsche-930-spectraflame) [code kujtaa 200$gw+200$lb](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/code%20kujtaa%20200%24gw%2B200%24lb) $10.88 $865 79.50x 2026-11-04 23:31 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=hot-wheels-maniac) [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) Hidden $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) Hidden $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Hot Wheels Super Speed Coloring Book other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-super-speed-coloring-book) Hidden $10.88 $3.79 0.35x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) Hidden $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) Hidden $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) [jmL](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jmL) $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:11 UTC [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) Hidden $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Hot Wheels Dodge Charger Hellcat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-dodge-charger-hellcat) Hidden $10.88 $9.95 0.91x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Hot Wheels Dodge Charger Hellcat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-dodge-charger-hellcat) Hidden $10.88 $9.95 0.91x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Hot Wheels Track other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-wheels-track) Hidden $10.88 $0.05 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.88 | 89.50% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $865 (79.50x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt