--- title: "House Warming case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "House Warming ($53.15) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 103.78% over 348 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming rendered: 2026-11-11T13:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [House Warming](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · House Warming A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming?window=all) Price · $53.15 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $47.57 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 103.78% · 348 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 75.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 103.32% ±16.05 324 openings 30 days · 103.78% ±15.49 348 openings since tracking started · 103.78% ±15.49 348 openings 2.0% 120.5% 239.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming?window=24h) | 6 | 120.66% ±117.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming?window=7d) | 324 | 103.32% ±16.0 | +1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming) | 348 | 103.78% ±15.5 | +1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/house-warming?window=all) | 348 | 103.78% ±15.5 | +1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 348 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Novogratz Brittany Sofa Futon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/novogratz-brittany-sofa-futon) | 1 in 50 | $372 | 15.6% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× | | [Smart Humidifier for Home other](https://gambatracker.com/items/smart-humidifier-for-home) | 1 in 33 | $260 | 16.4% | 18 | 10.4 | 1.72× | | [Weber Original Kettle 22-Inch Charcoal Grill other](https://gambatracker.com/items/weber-original-kettle-22-inch-charcoal-grill) | 1 in 20 | $195 | 20.5% | 27 | 17.4 | 1.55× | | [Silonn Ice Maker Countertop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silonn-ice-maker-countertop) | 1 in 20 | $145 | 15.2% | 15 | 17.4 | 0.86× | | [BELLA XL Electric Ceramic Titanium Griddle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bella-xl-electric-ceramic-titanium-griddle) | 10.0% | $64.00 | 13.5% | 35 | 34.8 | 1.01× | | [Johnnie Walker Black Label 12-Year-Old (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/johnnie-walker-black-label-12-year-old-750ml-fake) | 10.0% | $38.00 | 8.0% | 27 | 34.8 | 0.78× | | [Wooden Wall Art Decor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-wall-art-decor) | 10.0% | $24.00 | 5.0% | 40 | 34.8 | 1.15× | | [Bedroom Blackout Curtains other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bedroom-blackout-curtains) | 10.0% | $18.60 | 3.9% | 37 | 34.8 | 1.06× | | [Bonsenkitchen Powerful Milk Frother for Coffee other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bonsenkitchen-powerful-milk-frother-for-coffee) | 10.0% | $7.00 | 1.5% | 36 | 34.8 | 1.03× | | [Wall-Mounted Kitchen Garbage Bag Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wall-mounted-kitchen-garbage-bag-organizer) | 15.0% | $1.10 | 0.3% | 43 | 52.2 | 0.82× | | [Wine Cork other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wine-cork) | 20.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 65 | 69.6 | 0.93× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=house-warming) [Silonn Ice Maker Countertop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silonn-ice-maker-countertop) Hidden $53.15 $145 2.73x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [Wall-Mounted Kitchen Garbage Bag Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wall-mounted-kitchen-garbage-bag-organizer) Hidden $53.15 $1.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [Weber Original Kettle 22-Inch Charcoal Grill other](https://gambatracker.com/items/weber-original-kettle-22-inch-charcoal-grill) Hidden $53.15 $195 3.67x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [Wooden Wall Art Decor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wooden-wall-art-decor) Hidden $53.15 $24.00 0.45x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [Wall-Mounted Kitchen Garbage Bag Organizer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wall-mounted-kitchen-garbage-bag-organizer) Hidden $53.15 $1.10 0.02x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [Bedroom Blackout Curtains other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bedroom-blackout-curtains) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $53.15 $18.60 0.35x 2026-11-11 08:30 UTC [BELLA XL Electric Ceramic Titanium Griddle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bella-xl-electric-ceramic-titanium-griddle) Hidden $53.15 $64.00 1.20x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [BELLA XL Electric Ceramic Titanium Griddle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bella-xl-electric-ceramic-titanium-griddle) Hidden $53.15 $64.00 1.20x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [Johnnie Walker Black Label 12-Year-Old (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/johnnie-walker-black-label-12-year-old-750ml-fake) Hidden $53.15 $38.00 0.71x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC [Weber Original Kettle 22-Inch Charcoal Grill other](https://gambatracker.com/items/weber-original-kettle-22-inch-charcoal-grill) Hidden $53.15 $195 3.67x 2026-11-10 06:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $53.15 | 89.50% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt