--- title: "Hype Surprise case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Hype Surprise ($14.36) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 19 items with odds, observed 83.46% over 398 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise rendered: 2026-11-11T20:35Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Hype Surprise](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Hype Surprise A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise?window=all) Price · $14.36 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $12.85 from 19 items Observed RTP, 30d · 83.46% · 398 openings, odds method Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 33.2% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 70 openings · below min 7 days · 82.55% ±15.23 376 openings 30 days · 83.46% ±14.80 398 openings since tracking started · 83.46% ±14.80 398 openings 51.5% 87.3% 123.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise?window=24h) | 70 | 87.22% ±35.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise?window=7d) | 376 | 82.55% ±15.2 | −0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise) | 398 | 83.46% ±14.8 | −0.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/hype-surprise?window=all) | 398 | 83.46% ±14.8 | −0.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 19 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 398 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Balenciaga Triple S Logotype Trainers (EU 36) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-triple-s-logotype-trainers-eu-36) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,750 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Tissot Seastar 1000 Chronograph other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissot-seastar-1000-chronograph) | 1 in 5,000 | $660 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Yeezy Calabasas Socks (3 Pack) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-calabasas-socks-3-pack) | 1 in 1,000 | $155 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Casio G-Shock MTP-1302D-7A1V other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-mtp-1302d-7a1v) | 1 in 500 | $72.00 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [BAPE ABC Camo Beach Ball Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-abc-camo-beach-ball-blue) | 1 in 333 | $69.00 | 1.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× | | [Supreme Leaktite 5-Gallon Bucket White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-leaktite-5-gallon-bucket-white) | 1 in 250 | $61.00 | 1.9% | 3 | 1.6 | 1.88× | | [OFF-WHITE Arrows Face Mask Black/White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-arrows-face-mask-black-white) | 1 in 200 | $56.00 | 2.2% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.50× | | [Supreme Hav-A-Hank Bandanas (3 Pack) Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-hav-a-hank-bandanas-3-pack-multicolor) | 1 in 143 | $44.55 | 2.4% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [100 Thieves x Jujutsu Kaisen Mirror Snapback Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-jujutsu-kaisen-mirror-snapback-hat) | 1 in 100 | $33.00 | 2.6% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [BAPE Beach Japan 2022 Exclusive Pack Towel White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-beach-japan-2022-exclusive-pack-towel-white) | 1 in 67 | $28.00 | 3.3% | 4 | 6.0 | 0.67× | | [HyperX Fury S - Pro Gaming Mouse Pad other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hyperx-fury-s-pro-gaming-mouse-pad) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 3.9% | 4 | 10.0 | 0.40× | | [Mercedes G63 Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mercedes-g63-toy) | 1 in 33 | $19.00 | 4.4% | 9 | 11.9 | 0.75× | | [Mini Shoes Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-shoes-keychain) | 1 in 25 | $16.00 | 5.0% | 22 | 15.9 | 1.38× | | [Casio MQ24 Series other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-mq24-series) | 1 in 20 | $14.99 | 5.8% | 23 | 19.9 | 1.16× | | [Funko Pop! Animation: Jujutsu Kaisen - Gojo, Multicolor, 61357 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-jujutsu-kaisen-gojo-multicolor-61357) | 1 in 14 | $14.47 | 7.9% | 31 | 27.9 | 1.11× | | [Sony Playstation Embroidered Logo Patch Gaming Icons Youth Flat Bill Hat Multicolored other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sony-playstation-embroidered-logo-patch-gaming-icons-youth-flat-bill-hat-multicolored) | 1 in 14 | $12.95 | 7.1% | 23 | 27.9 | 0.83× | | [Astroworld Flag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/astroworld-flag-black) | 1 in 14 | $10.00 | 5.4% | 22 | 27.9 | 0.79× | | [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) | 30.0% | $8.99 | 21.0% | 125 | 119.4 | 1.05× | | [Yeezy Box Airpod Case Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-box-airpod-case-cover) | 29.8% | $8.99 | 20.8% | 126 | 118.5 | 1.06× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=hype-surprise) [Yeezy Box Airpod Case Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-box-airpod-case-cover) Hidden $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) Hidden $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [Yeezy Box Airpod Case Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-box-airpod-case-cover) Hidden $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [Yeezy Box Airpod Case Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-box-airpod-case-cover) [Sharkinz](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sharkinz) $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:38 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) Hidden $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Mini Shoes Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-shoes-keychain) Hidden $14.36 $16.00 1.11x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) Hidden $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) [Sharkinz](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sharkinz) $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Yeezy Box Airpod Case Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/yeezy-box-airpod-case-cover) Hidden $14.36 $8.99 0.63x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC [Funko Pop! Animation: Jujutsu Kaisen - Gojo, Multicolor, 61357 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-jujutsu-kaisen-gojo-multicolor-61357) Hidden $14.36 $14.47 1.01x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $14.36 | 89.49% | 19 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt