--- title: "Ibiza case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Ibiza ($179.62) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 73.62% over 159 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza rendered: 2026-11-11T18:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Ibiza](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Ibiza A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza?window=all) Price · $179.62 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $160.75 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.62% · 159 openings, odds method Variance · 13.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 37 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 119 openings · below min 30 days · 159 openings · below min since tracking started · 159 openings · below min 2.0% 68.0% 134.0% **Small sample.** 159 openings and 4.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza?window=7d) | 119 | 68.19% ±65.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza) | 159 | 73.62% ±56.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/ibiza?window=all) | 159 | 73.62% ±56.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 159 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Rolex Datejust 36 126200 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36-126200) | 1 in 667 | $11.7K | 10.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Divas’ Dream Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/divas-dream-necklace) | 1 in 400 | $5,000 | 7.8% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Pearl Lock Bracelet in Silver, Medium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pearl-lock-bracelet-in-silver-medium) | 1 in 222 | $3,300 | 9.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Louis Vuitton 1.1 Millionaires Sunglasses Pale Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-1-1-millionaires-sunglasses-pale-blue) | 1 in 200 | $2,760 | 8.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-red) | 1 in 167 | $2,520 | 9.4% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Balenciaga Hourglass Wallet With Chain Dark Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-hourglass-wallet-with-chain-dark-red) | 1 in 133 | $1,400 | 6.5% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.68× | | [Moncler x Palm Angels Hawaiian Print Short Sleeve Shirt Purple Multi Print EU 52 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/moncler-x-palm-angels-hawaiian-print-short-sleeve-shirt-purple-multi-print-eu-52) | 1 in 133 | $1,340 | 6.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× | | [Balenciaga Cities Paris Explorer Nylon Belt Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-cities-paris-explorer-nylon-belt-bag-black) | 1 in 100 | $942 | 5.9% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.26× | | [Gucci Web Belt Stripe Fanny Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-web-belt-stripe-fanny-pack) | 1 in 80 | $750 | 5.8% | 5 | 2.0 | 2.52× | | [Fendi x Joshua Vides Slide White Womens EU 35 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fendi-x-joshua-vides-slide-white-womens-eu-35) | 1 in 80 | $705 | 5.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× | | [Mugler H&M Knot-Detail One-Shoulder Dress Black US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mugler-h-and-m-knot-detail-one-shoulder-dress-black-us-m) | 1 in 50 | $485 | 6.0% | 4 | 3.2 | 1.26× | | [Burberry Bird Geo Print Short Sleeves Shirt Maroon White Blue US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burberry-bird-geo-print-short-sleeves-shirt-maroon-white-blue-us-s) | 1 in 40 | $365 | 5.7% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [OFF-WHITE Pool Slides Fuchsia Women's EU 37 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-pool-slides-fuchsia-womens-eu-37) | 1 in 31 | $210 | 4.2% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.39× | | [adidas Ivy Park Strappy Dress Glory Blue/Team Royal Blue US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-ivy-park-strappy-dress-glory-blue-team-royal-blue-us-s) | 1 in 25 | $125 | 3.1% | 6 | 6.4 | 0.94× | | [BAPE Stroke Camo Pocket Bucket Hat Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bape-stroke-camo-pocket-bucket-hat-red) | 1 in 25 | $100 | 2.5% | 3 | 6.4 | 0.47× | | [Pink Flamingo Inflatable Pool Float other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pink-flamingo-inflatable-pool-float) | 12.3% | $22.00 | 1.7% | 21 | 19.6 | 1.07× | | [LED Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/led-bracelet) | 20.0% | $2.75 | 0.3% | 32 | 31.8 | 1.01× | | [Pack of Glowsticks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-glowsticks) | 45.0% | $2.00 | 0.6% | 76 | 71.5 | 1.06× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Divas’ Dream Necklace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/divas-dream-necklace) Hidden $180 $5,000 27.84x 2026-11-06 10:29 UTC [Balenciaga Hourglass Wallet With Chain Dark Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-hourglass-wallet-with-chain-dark-red) Hidden $180 $1,400 7.79x 2026-11-05 15:05 UTC [Balenciaga Hourglass Wallet With Chain Dark Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-hourglass-wallet-with-chain-dark-red) [Revolut id @woxpro](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Revolut%20id%20%40woxpro) $180 $1,400 7.79x 2026-11-03 11:45 UTC [Moncler x Palm Angels Hawaiian Print Short Sleeve Shirt Purple Multi Print EU 52 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/moncler-x-palm-angels-hawaiian-print-short-sleeve-shirt-purple-multi-print-eu-52) Hidden $180 $1,340 7.46x 2026-11-03 11:52 UTC [Balenciaga Cities Paris Explorer Nylon Belt Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-cities-paris-explorer-nylon-belt-bag-black) Hidden $180 $942 5.24x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC [Balenciaga Cities Paris Explorer Nylon Belt Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-cities-paris-explorer-nylon-belt-bag-black) [Zmann777](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Zmann777) $180 $942 5.24x 2026-11-06 06:39 UTC [Gucci Web Belt Stripe Fanny Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-web-belt-stripe-fanny-pack) Hidden $180 $750 4.18x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Gucci Web Belt Stripe Fanny Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-web-belt-stripe-fanny-pack) Hidden $180 $750 4.18x 2026-11-06 02:35 UTC [Gucci Web Belt Stripe Fanny Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-web-belt-stripe-fanny-pack) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $180 $750 4.18x 2026-11-03 20:17 UTC [Gucci Web Belt Stripe Fanny Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-web-belt-stripe-fanny-pack) Hidden $180 $750 4.18x 2026-11-03 20:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=ibiza) [Pack of Glowsticks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-glowsticks) Hidden $180 $2.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [adidas Ivy Park Strappy Dress Glory Blue/Team Royal Blue US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-ivy-park-strappy-dress-glory-blue-team-royal-blue-us-s) Hidden $180 $125 0.70x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Pack of Glowsticks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-glowsticks) Hidden $180 $2.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [LED Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/led-bracelet) Hidden $180 $2.75 0.02x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Gucci Web Belt Stripe Fanny Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-web-belt-stripe-fanny-pack) Hidden $180 $750 4.18x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Pack of Glowsticks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-glowsticks) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $180 $2.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:21 UTC [Pack of Glowsticks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-glowsticks) Hidden $180 $2.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 03:45 UTC [Pack of Glowsticks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pack-of-glowsticks) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $180 $2.00 0.01x 2026-11-10 03:45 UTC [Balenciaga Cities Paris Explorer Nylon Belt Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-cities-paris-explorer-nylon-belt-bag-black) Hidden $180 $942 5.24x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC [Pink Flamingo Inflatable Pool Float other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pink-flamingo-inflatable-pool-float) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $180 $22.00 0.12x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $180 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $5,000 (27.84x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt