--- title: "iPhone case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "iPhone ($62.45) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 24 items with odds, observed 97.67% over 385 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone rendered: 2026-11-11T16:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [iPhone](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · iPhone A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone?window=all) Price · $62.45 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $55.89 from 24 items Observed RTP, 30d · 97.67% · 385 openings, odds method Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 32 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 95.02% ±34.98 341 openings 30 days · 97.67% ±32.92 385 openings since tracking started · 97.67% ±32.92 385 openings -0.5% 136.0% 272.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone?window=24h) | 6 | 8.01% ±263.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone?window=7d) | 341 | 95.02% ±35.0 | +0.3σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone) | 385 | 97.67% ±32.9 | +0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/iphone?window=all) | 385 | 97.67% ±32.9 | +0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 24 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 385 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Black Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-black-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,500 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro Max, Black Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-black-titanium-256-gb) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,440 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro Max, Desert Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-desert-titanium-256-gb) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,440 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro Max, Natural Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-natural-titanium-256-gb) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,440 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro Max, White Titanium, 256 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-max-white-titanium-256-gb) | 1 in 2,000 | $1,440 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-natural-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,200 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Desert Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-desert-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,200 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-natural-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,200 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [iPhone 16 Plus, Pink, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-pink-128-gb) | 1 in 500 | $1,080 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [iPhone 16 Plus, Ultramarine, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-ultramarine-128-gb) | 1 in 500 | $1,000 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [iPhone 16 Plus, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-teal-128-gb) | 1 in 500 | $1,000 | 3.6% | 2 | 0.8 | — | | [iPhone 16 Plus, White, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-white-128-gb) | 1 in 500 | $1,000 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [iPhone 16 Plus, Black, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-black-128-gb) | 1 in 500 | $1,000 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-teal-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $900 | 8.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [iPhone 16, Ultramarine, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-ultramarine-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $900 | 8.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× | | [iPhone 16, Pink, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pink-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $900 | 8.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [iPhone 16, White, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-white-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $900 | 8.1% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.04× | | [iPhone 16, Black, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-black-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $900 | 8.1% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× | | [AirPods Max, Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/airpods-max-blue) | 1 in 133 | $660 | 8.9% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.39× | | [Apple AirPods 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-4) | 1 in 133 | $240 | 3.2% | 5 | 2.9 | 1.73× | | [Apple AirTag 4 Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airtag-4-pack) | 1 in 50 | $140 | 5.0% | 6 | 7.7 | 0.78× | | [Apple Gift Card - $50 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-gift-card-50) | 1 in 42 | $50.00 | 2.1% | 8 | 9.2 | 0.87× | | [Apple USB-C to 3.5 mm Headphone Jack Adapter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-usb-c-to-3-5-mm-headphone-jack-adapter) | 30.0% | $9.00 | 4.8% | 115 | 115.5 | 1.00× | | [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) | 60.0% | $3.00 | 3.2% | 229 | 231.0 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [iPhone 16 Plus, Pink, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-pink-128-gb) [Oli](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oli) $62.45 $1,080 17.29x 2026-11-05 18:22 UTC [iPhone 16 Plus, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-teal-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $1,000 16.01x 2026-11-09 05:53 UTC [iPhone 16 Plus, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-teal-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $1,000 16.01x 2026-11-05 19:44 UTC [iPhone 16 Plus, Black, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-plus-black-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $1,000 16.01x 2026-11-05 19:44 UTC [iPhone 16, Ultramarine, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-ultramarine-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $900 14.41x 2026-11-09 06:14 UTC [iPhone 16, White, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-white-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $900 14.41x 2026-11-09 05:38 UTC [iPhone 16, Ultramarine, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-ultramarine-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $900 14.41x 2026-11-07 18:45 UTC [iPhone 16, Pink, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pink-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $900 14.41x 2026-11-07 11:28 UTC [iPhone 16, White, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-white-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $900 14.41x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC [iPhone 16, Teal, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-teal-128-gb) Hidden $62.45 $900 14.41x 2026-11-06 07:48 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=iphone) [Apple USB-C to 3.5 mm Headphone Jack Adapter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-usb-c-to-3-5-mm-headphone-jack-adapter) Hidden $62.45 $9.00 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) Hidden $62.45 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) Hidden $62.45 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Apple USB-C to 3.5 mm Headphone Jack Adapter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-usb-c-to-3-5-mm-headphone-jack-adapter) Hidden $62.45 $9.00 0.14x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) Hidden $62.45 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $62.45 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 08:50 UTC [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) Hidden $62.45 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC [Apple Gift Card - $50 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-gift-card-50) Hidden $62.45 $50.00 0.80x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC [Glass Screen Protector for iPhone 16 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/glass-screen-protector-for-iphone-16) Hidden $62.45 $3.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC [Apple USB-C to 3.5 mm Headphone Jack Adapter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-usb-c-to-3-5-mm-headphone-jack-adapter) Hidden $62.45 $9.00 0.14x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $62.45 | 89.50% | 24 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,080 (17.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt