--- title: "Jingle Box case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jingle Box ($5.43) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.43% from 18 items with odds, observed 93.03% over 927 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box rendered: 2026-11-11T19:23Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Jingle Box](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Jingle Box A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box?window=all) Price · $5.43 Advertised RTP · 89.43% · EV $4.86 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 93.03% · 927 openings, odds method Variance · 2.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 10.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 57 openings · below min 7 days · 96.23% ±11.59 827 openings 30 days · 93.03% ±10.94 927 openings since tracking started · 93.03% ±10.94 927 openings 81.5% 129.8% 178.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box?window=24h) | 57 | 133.23% ±44.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box?window=7d) | 827 | 96.23% ±11.6 | +1.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box) | 927 | 93.03% ±10.9 | +0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jingle-box?window=all) | 927 | 93.03% ±10.9 | +0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 927 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Kurt Adler Kringle Klaus Santa Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kurt-adler-kringle-klaus-santa-figure) | 1 in 100 | $78.00 | 16.1% | 16 | 9.3 | 1.73× | | [Warm White Christmas Tree Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/warm-white-christmas-tree-lights) | 1 in 50 | $30.00 | 12.4% | 8 | 18.5 | 0.43× | | [Gingerbread Cookie Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gingerbread-cookie-kit) | 1 in 50 | $20.00 | 8.2% | 18 | 18.5 | 0.97× | | [OREO Fudge Covered Chocolate Cookies other](https://gambatracker.com/items/oreo-fudge-covered-chocolate-cookies) | 1 in 40 | $15.00 | 7.7% | 25 | 23.2 | 1.08× | | [Bright Multi-Colored Christmas Mini String Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bright-multi-colored-christmas-mini-string-lights) | 1 in 40 | $12.00 | 6.2% | 27 | 23.2 | 1.17× | | [Large Santa Christmas Mug other](https://gambatracker.com/items/large-santa-christmas-mug) | 1 in 33 | $8.00 | 4.9% | 33 | 27.8 | 1.19× | | [Hot Chocolate Bombs other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hot-chocolate-bombs) | 1 in 25 | $7.40 | 6.1% | 33 | 37.1 | 0.89× | | [Christmas Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-socks) | 1 in 25 | $7.00 | 5.8% | 34 | 37.1 | 0.92× | | [COTTON CRAFT Christmas Red Napkins other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cotton-craft-christmas-red-napkins) | 1 in 20 | $6.75 | 7.0% | 41 | 46.4 | 0.88× | | [Christmas Puzzle Mania other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-puzzle-mania) | 1 in 20 | $6.00 | 6.2% | 41 | 46.4 | 0.88× | | [DIY Christmas Tree Decorations other](https://gambatracker.com/items/diy-christmas-tree-decorations) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 5.1% | 40 | 46.4 | 0.86× | | [Travel Tin Candle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travel-tin-candle) | 1 in 15 | $3.00 | 4.0% | 59 | 60.3 | 0.98× | | [Christmas Santa Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-santa-hat) | 1 in 13 | $2.50 | 3.9% | 71 | 69.5 | 1.02× | | [Reindeer Pens other](https://gambatracker.com/items/reindeer-pens) | 10.0% | $1.25 | 2.6% | 98 | 92.7 | 1.06× | | [100pcs Paper Tags other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100pcs-paper-tags) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 2.1% | 106 | 92.7 | 1.14× | | [Christmas Tree Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-tree-keychain) | 10.0% | $0.50 | 1.0% | 99 | 92.7 | 1.07× | | [Festive Cupcake Liners other](https://gambatracker.com/items/festive-cupcake-liners) | 10.0% | $0.30 | 0.6% | 82 | 92.7 | 0.88× | | [Christmas Sticker Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-sticker-pack) | 10.0% | $0.10 | 0.2% | 96 | 92.7 | 1.04× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=jingle-box) [Christmas Santa Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-santa-hat) Hidden $5.43 $2.50 0.46x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [Large Santa Christmas Mug other](https://gambatracker.com/items/large-santa-christmas-mug) Hidden $5.43 $8.00 1.47x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [OREO Fudge Covered Chocolate Cookies other](https://gambatracker.com/items/oreo-fudge-covered-chocolate-cookies) Hidden $5.43 $15.00 2.76x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [Christmas Tree Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-tree-keychain) Hidden $5.43 $0.50 0.09x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [Christmas Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-socks) Hidden $5.43 $7.00 1.29x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [Reindeer Pens other](https://gambatracker.com/items/reindeer-pens) [Gentle Dragon](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Gentle%20Dragon) $5.43 $1.25 0.23x 2026-11-11 18:54 UTC [Christmas Tree Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-tree-keychain) Hidden $5.43 $0.50 0.09x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Christmas Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-socks) Hidden $5.43 $7.00 1.29x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [100pcs Paper Tags other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100pcs-paper-tags) Hidden $5.43 $1.00 0.18x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC [Travel Tin Candle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travel-tin-candle) Hidden $5.43 $3.00 0.55x 2026-11-11 17:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $5.43 | 89.43% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.43 on average: an expected loss of $10.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt