--- title: "Jordan 4 case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Jordan 4 ($183.67) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 23 items with odds, observed 60.39% over 12 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4 rendered: 2026-11-11T19:17Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Jordan 4](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Jordan 4 A box on Cases.gg (Nike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4?window=all) Price · $183.67 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $164.38 from 23 items Observed RTP, 30d · 60.39% · 12 openings, odds method Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 14.8% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 70.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min -0.5% 67.8% 136.0% **Small sample.** 12 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4) | 12 | 60.39% ±74.9 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jordan-4?window=all) | 12 | 60.39% ±74.9 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 23 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 12 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Jordan 4 Retro Travis Scott Cactus Jack (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-travis-scott-cactus-jack-us-8) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,806 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Guava Ice (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-guava-ice-us-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,233 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Off Noir (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-off-noir-us-8) | 1 in 333 | $920 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroMetallic Red (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrometallic-red-us-11) | 1 in 167 | $900 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro University Blue (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-university-blue-us-11) | 1 in 80 | $810 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroMetallic Red (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrometallic-red-us-9) | 1 in 200 | $795 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroPSG Paris Saint-Germain (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retropsg-paris-saint-germain-us-8) | 1 in 167 | $789 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Off Noir (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-off-noir-us-7) | 1 in 1,000 | $725 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroWhite Cement (2012) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrowhite-cement-2012-us-10) | 1 in 500 | $690 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroPSG Paris Saint-Germain (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retropsg-paris-saint-germain-us-7) | 1 in 100 | $680 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroRed Thunder (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrored-thunder-us-9) | 1 in 125 | $639 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroLightning (2021) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrolightning-2021-us-7) | 1 in 67 | $530 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroLightning (2021) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrolightning-2021-us-10) | 1 in 40 | $500 | 7.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro SEBlack Canvas (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-seblack-canvas-us-8) | 1 in 50 | $490 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroFIBA (2019) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrofiba-2019-us-10) | 1 in 67 | $486 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro SEBlack Canvas (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-seblack-canvas-us-9) | 1 in 57 | $480 | 5.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro SEBlack Canvas (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-seblack-canvas-us-10) | 1 in 45 | $480 | 6.4% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro SBPine Green (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-sbpine-green-us-8) | 1 in 48 | $444 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroA Ma Maniére Violet Ore (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retroa-ma-maniere-violet-ore-us-8) | 1 in 43 | $432 | 6.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroRed Cement (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrored-cement-us-8) | 1 in 31 | $412 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroLightning (2021) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrolightning-2021-us-11) | 1 in 42 | $410 | 6.0% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroMilitary Blue (2024) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retromilitary-blue-2024-us-7) | 1 in 33 | $345 | 6.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Mini Shoes Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mini-shoes-keychain) | 70.0% | $16.00 | 6.8% | 9 | 8.4 | 1.07× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=jordan-4) **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $184 | 89.50% | 23 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt