--- title: "Jumpman Mystery case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Jumpman Mystery ($38.96) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 21 items with odds, observed 24.31% over 607 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery rendered: 2026-11-12T04:30Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Jumpman Mystery](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Jumpman Mystery A box on Cases.gg (Nike), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery?window=all) Price · $38.96 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $34.87 from 21 items Observed RTP, 30d · 24.31% · 607 openings, odds method Variance · 130.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.9% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 80 openings · below min 7 days · 470 openings · below min 30 days · 607 openings · below min since tracking started · 607 openings · below min -0.5% 150.8% 302.0% **Small sample.** 607 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery?window=24h) | 80 | 51.14% ±250.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery?window=7d) | 470 | 26.67% ±103.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery) | 607 | 24.31% ±90.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/jumpman-mystery?window=all) | 607 | 24.31% ±90.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 21 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 607 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Jordan 1 Retro High Dior (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-dior-us-8) | 1 in 1,429 | $10.2K | 20.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Jordan 5 Retro Tokyo T23 (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-5-retro-tokyo-t23-us-12) | 1 in 2,000 | $9,300 | 13.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 3 Retro Oregon Ducks Pit Crew White (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-3-retro-oregon-ducks-pit-crew-white-us-11) | 1 in 1,250 | $9,185 | 21.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sp-fragment-x-travis-scott-us-7) | 1 in 1,111 | $2,400 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Travis Scott Mocha (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sp-travis-scott-mocha-us-7) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,390 | 4.0% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Black (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-black-us-9) | 1 in 769 | $1,305 | 4.9% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP Travis Scott Black Phantom (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-travis-scott-black-phantom-us-11) | 1 in 909 | $1,150 | 3.6% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Sail (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sail-us-7) | 1 in 625 | $891 | 4.1% | 0 | 1.0 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro University Blue (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-university-blue-us-9) | 1 in 500 | $630 | 3.6% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.65× | | [Jordan 4 Retro SEBlack Canvas (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-seblack-canvas-us-7) | 1 in 476 | $556 | 3.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Jordan 4 Retro SBPine Green (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-sbpine-green-us-7) | 1 in 500 | $500 | 2.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Jordan 4 RetroThunder (2023) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrothunder-2023-us-7) | 1 in 455 | $389 | 2.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× | | [Jordan 4 RetroMilitary Blue (2024) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retromilitary-blue-2024-us-10) | 1 in 455 | $240 | 1.5% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.50× | | [Jordan 1 Low Black University Blue (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-low-black-university-blue-us-7) | 1 in 400 | $170 | 1.2% | 4 | 1.5 | 2.64× | | [Jordan 1 Mid University Blue Black (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-mid-university-blue-black-us-7) | 1 in 435 | $160 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Mauve (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-mauve-us-10) | 1 in 385 | $99.00 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG University Red (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-university-red-us-8) | 1 in 357 | $91.00 | 0.7% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [Jordan 1 Low OG Metallic Silver (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-low-og-metallic-silver-us-9) | 1 in 357 | $80.00 | 0.6% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.59× | | [Jordan Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-keychain) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 0.7% | 33 | 30.4 | 1.09× | | [Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-sticker) | 25.4% | $2.00 | 1.5% | 167 | 153.9 | 1.09× | | [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) | 66.5% | $1.00 | 1.9% | 393 | 403.7 | 0.97× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Travis Scott Mocha (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sp-travis-scott-mocha-us-7) Hidden $38.96 $1,390 35.68x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [Jordan 4 Retro University Blue (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-university-blue-us-9) Hidden $38.96 $630 16.17x 2026-11-08 22:27 UTC [Jordan 4 Retro University Blue (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-university-blue-us-9) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $38.96 $630 16.17x 2026-11-06 16:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=jumpman-mystery) [Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-sticker) Hidden $38.96 $2.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $38.96 $1.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-sticker) Hidden $38.96 $2.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-sticker) [APHRO](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/APHRO) $38.96 $2.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $38.96 $1.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $38.96 $1.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $38.96 $1.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-sticker) [APHRO](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/APHRO) $38.96 $2.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [$1 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-voucher) Hidden $38.96 $1.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC [Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-sticker) Hidden $38.96 $2.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 17:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $38.96 | 89.49% | 21 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,390 (35.68x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt