--- title: "Lake Day case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Lake Day ($79.50) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 26.76% over 229 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day rendered: 2026-11-11T21:03Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Lake Day](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Lake Day A box on Cases.gg (Outdoor), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day?window=all) Price · $79.50 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $71.15 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 26.76% · 229 openings, odds method Variance · 165.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 64 openings · below min 7 days · 187 openings · below min 30 days · 229 openings · below min since tracking started · 229 openings · below min -0.5% 161.5% 323.5% **Small sample.** 229 openings and 2.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day?window=24h) | 64 | 7.95% ±314.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day?window=7d) | 187 | 29.87% ±184.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day) | 229 | 26.76% ±166.4 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/lake-day?window=all) | 229 | 26.76% ±166.4 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 229 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2024 RANGER 1880MS w/ 150 XL Pro XS FourStroke Mercury - A other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ranger-1880ms-w-150-xl-pro-xs-fourstroke-mercury-a) | 1 in 10,000 | $68.2K | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Seadoo RXT-X 325 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/seadoo-rxt-x-325) | 1 in 1,111 | $24.7K | 31.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Laguna 5 Seat Pedal Boat with Canopy - Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/laguna-5-seat-pedal-boat-with-canopy-blue) | 1 in 111 | $1,335 | 16.9% | 0 | 2.1 | 0.00× | | [Garmin RV 1095 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garmin-rv-1095) | 1 in 100 | $1,080 | 15.2% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.87× | | [COSCO Outdoor Living 6 ft. Folding Picnic Table other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cosco-outdoor-living-6-ft-folding-picnic-table) | 1 in 100 | $568 | 8.0% | 0 | 2.3 | 0.00× | | [INTEX Excursion Inflatable Boat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/intex-excursion-inflatable-boat) | 1 in 100 | $265 | 3.7% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.31× | | [Intex 68307EP Explorer K2 Inflatable Kayak other](https://gambatracker.com/items/intex-68307ep-explorer-k2-inflatable-kayak) | 1 in 100 | $200 | 2.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [Weber Original Kettle 22-Inch Charcoal Grill other](https://gambatracker.com/items/weber-original-kettle-22-inch-charcoal-grill) | 1 in 100 | $195 | 2.7% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× | | [INTEX Challenger Inflatable Boat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/intex-challenger-inflatable-boat) | 1 in 50 | $100 | 2.8% | 4 | 4.6 | 0.87× | | [Body GlovePFD Life Vest - S/M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/body-glovepfd-life-vest-s-m) | 1 in 50 | $72.00 | 2.0% | 2 | 4.6 | 0.44× | | [Zebco Roam Spinning Reel and Fishing Rod Combo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zebco-roam-spinning-reel-and-fishing-rod-combo) | 1 in 50 | $68.00 | 1.9% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.53× | | [Cuisinart Portable Charcoal Grill, 14" (Red) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuisinart-portable-charcoal-grill-14-red) | 1 in 50 | $30.83 | 0.9% | 6 | 4.6 | 1.31× | | [INTEX 58330EP Explorer 200 Inflatable Boat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/intex-58330ep-explorer-200-inflatable-boat) | 1 in 50 | $17.79 | 0.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [OCEANBROAD Telescoping Emergency Paddle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/oceanbroad-telescoping-emergency-paddle) | 1 in 33 | $15.99 | 0.7% | 4 | 6.9 | 0.58× | | [Fishing Tackle Tray Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-tackle-tray-box) | 1 in 33 | $4.84 | 0.2% | 6 | 6.9 | 0.87× | | [Bobber other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bobber) | 1 in 17 | $3.00 | 0.3% | 12 | 13.7 | 0.87× | | [Fishing Lure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-lure) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.1% | 21 | 22.9 | 0.92× | | [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) | 62.0% | $0.50 | 0.4% | 155 | 142.0 | 1.09× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Garmin RV 1095 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garmin-rv-1095) Hidden $79.50 $1,080 13.58x 2026-11-10 14:26 UTC [Garmin RV 1095 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garmin-rv-1095) Hidden $79.50 $1,080 13.58x 2026-11-06 07:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=lake-day) [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) Hidden $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) Hidden $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) Hidden $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [Cuisinart Portable Charcoal Grill, 14" (Red) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cuisinart-portable-charcoal-grill-14-red) [Camel No. 9](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Camel%20No.%209) $79.50 $30.83 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) Hidden $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) Hidden $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [Zebco Roam Spinning Reel and Fishing Rod Combo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zebco-roam-spinning-reel-and-fishing-rod-combo) Hidden $79.50 $68.00 0.86x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [Fishing Lure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-lure) Hidden $79.50 $1.00 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) Hidden $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC [Fishing Hook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-hook) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $79.50 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:01 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $79.50 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $1,080 (13.58x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt