--- title: "Last Bet case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Last Bet ($213.18) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 9 items with odds, observed 143.96% over 60 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet rendered: 2026-11-11T22:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Last Bet](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Last Bet A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet?window=all) Price · $213.18 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $190.79 from 9 items Observed RTP, 30d · 143.96% · 60 openings, odds method Variance · 7.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 25 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 60 openings · below min 30 days · 60 openings · below min since tracking started · 60 openings · below min 76.0% 144.0% 212.0% **Small sample.** 60 openings and 2.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet?window=7d) | 60 | 143.96% ±67.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet) | 60 | 143.96% ±67.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/last-bet?window=all) | 60 | 143.96% ±67.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 60 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casino-slot-machine-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-66ctw) | 1 in 50 | $3,108 | 32.6% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.83× | | [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) | 1 in 50 | $2,400 | 25.2% | 5 | 1.2 | 4.17× | | [Supreme x Louis Vuitton City Mask SP Sunglasses Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-x-louis-vuitton-city-mask-sp-sunglasses-black) | 1 in 50 | $1,282 | 13.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [Supreme Patchwork Leather Duffel Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-patchwork-leather-duffel-bag-black) | 1 in 50 | $792 | 8.3% | 2 | 1.2 | 1.67× | | [Clay Poker Chips Set - 500 Piece other](https://gambatracker.com/items/clay-poker-chips-set-500-piece) | 1 in 50 | $180 | 1.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [SKG Smart Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/skg-smart-watch) | 15.0% | $125 | 9.8% | 6 | 9.0 | 0.67× | | [Bearbrick Bicycle Playing Cards Poker Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-bicycle-playing-cards-poker-set) | 15.0% | $62.00 | 4.9% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.89× | | [Packers Tabletop Stackers Block Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/packers-tabletop-stackers-block-game) | 30.0% | $24.00 | 3.8% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.06× | | [Tissue Paper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissue-paper) | 30.0% | $1.00 | 0.2% | 19 | 18.0 | 1.06× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [CASINO SLOT MACHINE DIAMOND PENDANT 14K SOLID GOLD 0.66CTW other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casino-slot-machine-diamond-pendant-14k-solid-gold-0-66ctw) Hidden $213 $3,108 14.58x 2026-11-05 13:34 UTC [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) Hidden $213 $2,400 11.26x 2026-11-06 10:38 UTC [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) Hidden $213 $2,400 11.26x 2026-11-06 06:53 UTC [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) [Zmann777](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Zmann777) $213 $2,400 11.26x 2026-11-06 06:42 UTC [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) Hidden $213 $2,400 11.26x 2026-11-06 06:40 UTC [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) [Zmann777](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Zmann777) $213 $2,400 11.26x 2026-11-06 06:37 UTC [Supreme Patchwork Leather Duffel Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-patchwork-leather-duffel-bag-black) Hidden $213 $792 3.72x 2026-11-06 06:53 UTC [Supreme Patchwork Leather Duffel Bag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-patchwork-leather-duffel-bag-black) Hidden $213 $792 3.72x 2026-11-06 06:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=last-bet) [Tissue Paper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissue-paper) Hidden $213 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:55 UTC [Packers Tabletop Stackers Block Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/packers-tabletop-stackers-block-game) Hidden $213 $24.00 0.11x 2026-11-09 19:55 UTC [Tissue Paper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissue-paper) Hidden $213 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:55 UTC [Bearbrick Bicycle Playing Cards Poker Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-bicycle-playing-cards-poker-set) Hidden $213 $62.00 0.29x 2026-11-09 19:55 UTC [Packers Tabletop Stackers Block Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/packers-tabletop-stackers-block-game) Hidden $213 $24.00 0.11x 2026-11-09 19:55 UTC [SKG Smart Watch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/skg-smart-watch) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $213 $125 0.59x 2026-11-09 19:55 UTC [Bearbrick Bicycle Playing Cards Poker Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-bicycle-playing-cards-poker-set) Hidden $213 $62.00 0.29x 2026-11-06 10:38 UTC [Pappy Van Winkle's Family Reserve 15-Year-Old Bourbon (750ml) (Fake) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pappy-van-winkles-family-reserve-15-year-old-bourbon-750ml-fake) Hidden $213 $2,400 11.26x 2026-11-06 10:38 UTC [Tissue Paper other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tissue-paper) Hidden $213 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-06 10:38 UTC [Bearbrick Bicycle Playing Cards Poker Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-bicycle-playing-cards-poker-set) Hidden $213 $62.00 0.29x 2026-11-06 10:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $213 | 89.50% | 9 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,108 (14.58x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt