--- title: "Leafy Treasure case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Leafy Treasure ($8.95) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.36% over 941 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure rendered: 2026-11-11T19:22Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Leafy Treasure](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Leafy Treasure A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure?window=all) Price · $8.95 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $8.01 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.36% · 941 openings, odds method Variance · 2.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 52 openings · below min 7 days · 89.53% ±9.88 884 openings 30 days · 88.36% ±9.58 941 openings since tracking started · 88.36% ±9.58 941 openings 43.5% 85.0% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure?window=24h) | 52 | 85.04% ±40.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure?window=7d) | 884 | 89.53% ±9.88 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure) | 941 | 88.36% ±9.58 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/leafy-treasure?window=all) | 941 | 88.36% ±9.58 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 941 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Bulbasaur (pcgL 001B) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-pcgl-001b) | 1 in 50 | $60.00 | 15.0% | 20 | 18.8 | 1.06× | | [Pokemon Bulbasaur Sleeping Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-bulbasaur-sleeping-plush) | 1 in 50 | $45.00 | 11.2% | 16 | 18.8 | 0.85× | | [Bulbasaur (EC1 S01) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-ec1-s01) | 1 in 50 | $35.00 | 8.7% | 14 | 18.8 | 0.74× | | [Bulbasaur (SWSH 303) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-swsh-303) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 | 11.2% | 36 | 28.2 | 1.28× | | [Bulbasaur (MEW 166) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-mew-166) | 1 in 33 | $30.00 | 11.2% | 36 | 28.2 | 1.28× | | [Bulbasaur (MCDP 001) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-mcdp-001) | 1 in 33 | $27.00 | 10.1% | 20 | 28.2 | 0.71× | | [Bulbasaur (SCR 143) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-scr-143) | 1 in 33 | $20.00 | 7.5% | 23 | 28.2 | 0.81× | | [Bulbasaur (svG 050) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-svg-050) | 1 in 33 | $17.00 | 6.4% | 22 | 28.2 | 0.78× | | [Funko Pop! Games: Pokemon - Bulbasaur (Soft Color) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-games-pokemon-bulbasaur-soft-color) | 1 in 33 | $15.00 | 5.6% | 32 | 28.2 | 1.13× | | [My First Battle: Bulbasaur & Pikachu other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-battle-bulbasaur-and-pikachu) | 1 in 20 | $6.20 | 3.9% | 40 | 47.1 | 0.85× | | [Bulbasaur (BS 44) (V2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-bs-44-v2) | 1 in 20 | $4.15 | 2.6% | 67 | 47.1 | 1.42× | | [Bulbasaur (sv2a 166) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-sv2a-166) | 1 in 20 | $3.25 | 2.0% | 46 | 47.1 | 0.98× | | [Bulbasaur (SM 198) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-sm-198) | 1 in 13 | $2.00 | 1.9% | 75 | 70.6 | 1.06× | | [Bulbasaur (SV-P 059) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-sv-p-059) | 10.0% | $0.95 | 1.2% | 88 | 94.1 | 0.94× | | [Bulbasaur (MFB) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-mfb) | 10.0% | $0.90 | 1.1% | 96 | 94.1 | 1.02× | | [Bulbasaur (MCD19F 1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-mcd19f-1) | 10.0% | $0.20 | 0.2% | 90 | 94.1 | 0.96× | | [Bulbasaur (MEW 001) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-mew-001) | 10.0% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 91 | 94.1 | 0.97× | | [Bulbasaur (BS 44) (V1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-bs-44-v1) | 13.5% | $0.02 | 0.0% | 129 | 127.0 | 1.02× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=leafy-treasure) [Bulbasaur (MCD19F 1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-mcd19f-1) Hidden $8.95 $0.20 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Bulbasaur (EC1 S01) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-ec1-s01) Hidden $8.95 $35.00 3.91x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Bulbasaur (SV-P 059) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-sv-p-059) Hidden $8.95 $0.95 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [My First Battle: Bulbasaur & Pikachu other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-battle-bulbasaur-and-pikachu) [Unique Skunk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Unique%20Skunk) $8.95 $6.20 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:34 UTC [Bulbasaur (SM 198) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-sm-198) Hidden $8.95 $2.00 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [My First Battle: Bulbasaur & Pikachu other](https://gambatracker.com/items/my-first-battle-bulbasaur-and-pikachu) Hidden $8.95 $6.20 0.69x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [Bulbasaur (sv2a 166) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-sv2a-166) Hidden $8.95 $3.25 0.36x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [Bulbasaur (SWSH 303) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-swsh-303) [Unique Skunk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Unique%20Skunk) $8.95 $30.00 3.35x 2026-11-11 15:33 UTC [Bulbasaur (BS 44) (V2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-bs-44-v2) Hidden $8.95 $4.15 0.46x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC [Bulbasaur (BS 44) (V2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bulbasaur-bs-44-v2) Hidden $8.95 $4.15 0.46x 2026-11-11 08:12 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.95 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt