--- title: "Life Change case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Life Change ($383.62) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 1.31% over 90 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change rendered: 2026-11-11T19:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Life Change](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Life Change A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change?window=all) Price · $383.62 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $343.33 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 1.31% · 90 openings, odds method Variance · 151.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 98.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 84 openings · below min 30 days · 90 openings · below min since tracking started · 90 openings · below min -0.5% 132.3% 265.0% **Small sample.** 90 openings and 0.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change?window=7d) | 84 | 0.88% ±263.3 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change) | 90 | 1.31% ±254.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/life-change?window=all) | 90 | 1.31% ±254.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 90 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tesla Model S Plaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tesla-model-s-plaid) | 1 in 1,000 | $101K | 29.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2019 BMW i8 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2019-bmw-i8) | 1 in 1,000 | $80.4K | 23.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2025 Lexus UX F SPORT Handling other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2025-lexus-ux-f-sport-handling) | 1 in 1,000 | $60K | 17.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Polestar 2 Long Range Dual Motor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-polestar-2-long-range-dual-motor) | 1 in 1,000 | $40.5K | 11.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2019 Ford Fiesta other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2019-ford-fiesta) | 1 in 1,000 | $19.8K | 5.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Ford Fusion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-fusion) | 1 in 1,000 | $10K | 2.9% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [1999 Pokemon Base Set Shadowless 1st Edition Holo Machamp #8 PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1999-pokemon-base-set-shadowless-1st-edition-holo-machamp-8-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 500 | $4,950 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [OFF-WHITE Rimowa See Through 47L Case - White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-rimowa-see-through-47l-case-white) | 1 in 500 | $2,453 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [iPhone 16 Pro, Natural Titanium, 128 GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/iphone-16-pro-natural-titanium-128-gb) | 1 in 200 | $1,200 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [PlayStation®5 Console other](https://gambatracker.com/items/playstation-5-console) | 1 in 200 | $730 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [2002 Yu-Gi-Oh! Legend Of Blue Eyes 1st Edition Polymerization #LOB-059 PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2002-yu-gi-oh-legend-of-blue-eyes-1st-edition-polymerization-lob-059-psa-9) | 1 in 200 | $300 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Funko Pop! Movies 8 Mile B-Rabbit Figure #1052 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-movies-8-mile-b-rabbit-figure-1052) | 1 in 200 | $150 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [MSCHF x 100 Thieves Dino Swords Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-100-thieves-dino-swords-vinyl-figure) | 1 in 100 | $130 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Tactibear Large Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tactibear-large-plush) | 1 in 100 | $72.00 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.9 | — | | [Samsung Type-C™ USB Flash Drive, 256GB other](https://gambatracker.com/items/samsung-type-c-usb-flash-drive-256gb) | 1 in 100 | $39.00 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) | 24.0% | $8.99 | 0.6% | 19 | 21.6 | 0.88× | | [Fidget Cube other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fidget-cube) | 30.0% | $1.55 | 0.1% | 30 | 27.0 | 1.11× | | [Bandaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandaid) | 40.0% | $0.35 | 0.0% | 39 | 36.0 | 1.08× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=life-change) [Bandaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandaid) Hidden $384 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Fidget Cube other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fidget-cube) Hidden $384 $1.55 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Bandaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandaid) Hidden $384 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Bandaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandaid) Hidden $384 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Bandaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandaid) Hidden $384 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Bandaid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandaid) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $384 $0.35 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) Hidden $384 $8.99 0.02x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) Hidden $384 $8.99 0.02x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [Hellcat Toy other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hellcat-toy) Hidden $384 $8.99 0.02x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [Fidget Cube other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fidget-cube) Hidden $384 $1.55 0.00x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $384 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt