--- title: "Mad Inventor case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mad Inventor ($4.70) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 18 items with odds, observed 96.18% over 1,018 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor rendered: 2026-11-12T05:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Mad Inventor](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Mad Inventor A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor?window=all) Price · $4.70 Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $4.20 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.18% · 1,018 openings, odds method Variance · 3.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 73.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 77.86% ±27.56 158 openings 7 days · 93.35% ±11.97 838 openings 30 days · 96.18% ±10.86 1,018 openings since tracking started · 96.18% ±10.86 1,018 openings 49.5% 78.5% 107.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor?window=24h) | 158 | 77.86% ±27.6 | −0.8σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor?window=7d) | 838 | 93.35% ±12.0 | +0.6σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor) | 1,018 | 96.18% ±10.9 | +1.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mad-inventor?window=all) | 1,018 | 96.18% ±10.9 | +1.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,018 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Niv-Mizzet, Visionary (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-visionary-v-2) | 1 in 400 | $92.50 | 5.5% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.36× | | [Pioneer Challenger Decks 2022: Izzet Phoenix other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pioneer-challenger-decks-2022-izzet-phoenix) | 1 in 133 | $43.94 | 7.8% | 9 | 7.6 | 1.18× | | [Niv-Mizzet, the Firemind other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-the-firemind) | 1 in 133 | $39.50 | 7.0% | 5 | 7.6 | 0.65× | | [Duel Decks: Izzet vs. Golgari: Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/duel-decks-izzet-vs-golgari-full-set) | 1 in 133 | $32.95 | 5.9% | 6 | 7.6 | 0.79× | | [Murders at Karlov Manor: "Niv-Mizzet, Guildpact" Playmat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/murders-at-karlov-manor-niv-mizzet-guildpact-playmat) | 1 in 100 | $20.00 | 4.8% | 13 | 10.2 | 1.28× | | [Niv-Mizzet Reborn (V.3) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-reborn-v-3) | 1 in 100 | $16.10 | 3.8% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.18× | | [Sliv-Mizzet, Hivemind (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sliv-mizzet-hivemind-v-1) | 1 in 40 | $15.00 | 8.9% | 23 | 25.5 | 0.90× | | [Duel Decks: Izzet vs. Golgari Dual Deck Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/duel-decks-izzet-vs-golgari-dual-deck-box) | 1 in 40 | $12.00 | 7.1% | 23 | 25.5 | 0.90× | | [Guilds of Ravnica: Izzet League Sleeves (UP) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/guilds-of-ravnica-izzet-league-sleeves-up) | 1 in 40 | $11.95 | 7.1% | 29 | 25.5 | 1.14× | | [Guildpact: Izzet Gizmometry Theme Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/guildpact-izzet-gizmometry-theme-deck) | 1 in 20 | $9.90 | 11.8% | 56 | 50.9 | 1.10× | | [Niv-Mizzet, Visionary (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-visionary-v-1) | 1 in 20 | $8.00 | 9.5% | 54 | 50.9 | 1.06× | | [Niv-Mizzet, Visionary (V.3) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-visionary-v-3) | 1 in 20 | $6.30 | 7.5% | 49 | 50.9 | 0.96× | | [Guilds of Ravnica Theme Booster (Izzet) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/guilds-of-ravnica-theme-booster-izzet) | 1 in 20 | $4.35 | 5.2% | 54 | 50.9 | 1.06× | | [Niv-Mizzet, Parun (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-parun-v-2) | 10.0% | $2.30 | 5.5% | 85 | 101.8 | 0.83× | | [Niv-Mizzet, Supreme (V.3) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-supreme-v-3) | 10.0% | $0.45 | 1.1% | 104 | 101.8 | 1.02× | | [Niv-Mizzet, Parun other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-parun) | 10.0% | $0.30 | 0.7% | 94 | 101.8 | 0.92× | | [Izzet Signet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/izzet-signet) | 15.0% | $0.19 | 0.7% | 158 | 152.7 | 1.03× | | [Izzet Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/izzet-charm) | 23.0% | $0.02 | 0.1% | 238 | 234.1 | 1.02× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mad-inventor) [Niv-Mizzet, Parun other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-parun) Hidden $4.70 $0.30 0.06x 2026-11-12 04:41 UTC [Niv-Mizzet, Parun other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-parun) Hidden $4.70 $0.30 0.06x 2026-11-12 04:41 UTC [Niv-Mizzet, Visionary (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-visionary-v-1) Hidden $4.70 $8.00 1.70x 2026-11-12 04:41 UTC [Izzet Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/izzet-charm) Hidden $4.70 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:41 UTC [Izzet Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/izzet-charm) Hidden $4.70 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:41 UTC [Niv-Mizzet, Parun (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-parun-v-2) [dm](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/dm) $4.70 $2.30 0.49x 2026-11-12 04:41 UTC [Izzet Charm other](https://gambatracker.com/items/izzet-charm) Hidden $4.70 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-12 04:39 UTC [Niv-Mizzet, Supreme (V.3) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-supreme-v-3) Hidden $4.70 $0.45 0.10x 2026-11-12 04:39 UTC [Guilds of Ravnica Theme Booster (Izzet) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/guilds-of-ravnica-theme-booster-izzet) Hidden $4.70 $4.35 0.93x 2026-11-12 04:39 UTC [Niv-Mizzet, Visionary (V.3) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/niv-mizzet-visionary-v-3) Hidden $4.70 $6.30 1.34x 2026-11-12 04:39 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.70 | 89.46% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt