--- title: "Mario vs Sonic case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mario vs Sonic ($69.21) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 12 items with odds, observed 111.53% over 139 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic rendered: 2026-11-11T21:16Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Mario vs Sonic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Mario vs Sonic A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic?window=all) Price · $69.21 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $61.93 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 111.53% · 139 openings, odds method Variance · 50.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 88.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 18 openings · below min 7 days · 93 openings · below min 30 days · 139 openings · below min since tracking started · 139 openings · below min -0.5% 174.3% 349.0% **Small sample.** 139 openings and 1.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic?window=24h) | 18 | 20.15% ±328.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic?window=7d) | 93 | 97.33% ±144.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic) | 139 | 111.53% ±118.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mario-vs-sonic?window=all) | 139 | 111.53% ±118.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 139 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Tag Heuer Formula 1 x Mario Kart other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-formula-1-x-mario-kart) | 1 in 500 | $9,800 | 31.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Tag Heuer Connected x Super Mario other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-connected-x-super-mario) | 1 in 333 | $3,760 | 18.2% | 2 | 0.4 | — | | [Puma RS X3 Sega Sonic the Hedgehog (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/puma-rs-x3-sega-sonic-the-hedgehog-us-mens-11) | 1 in 200 | $795 | 6.4% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Higround x Sonic the Hedgehog Adventure Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-sonic-the-hedgehog-adventure-keyboard) | 1 in 100 | $612 | 9.9% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.72× | | [Higround x Sonic the Hedgehog Green Hill Zone Mousepad other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-sonic-the-hedgehog-green-hill-zone-mousepad) | 1 in 100 | $380 | 6.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Bearbrick x Sonic The Hedgehog 400 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-x-sonic-the-hedgehog-400) | 1 in 100 | $275 | 4.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× | | [Casio G-Shock x Super Mario Bros. other](https://gambatracker.com/items/casio-g-shock-x-super-mario-bros) | 1 in 50 | $250 | 8.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× | | [Nintendo Switch/Lite Super Mario 3D All-Stars Video Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-super-mario-3d-all-stars-video-game) | 1 in 100 | $179 | 2.9% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.16× | | [LEGO Super Mario Piranha Plant 71426 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-super-mario-piranha-plant-71426) | 1 in 20 | $86.00 | 6.9% | 7 | 7.0 | 1.01× | | [Funko Pop! Games Sonic The Hedgehog Tails (Flocked) Target Con Exclusive Figure #641 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-games-sonic-the-hedgehog-tails-flocked-target-con-exclusive-figure-641) | 1 in 33 | $64.00 | 3.1% | 4 | 4.2 | 0.96× | | [Sonic Frontiers - PlayStation 5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sonic-frontiers-playstation-5) | 1 in 20 | $19.99 | 1.6% | 5 | 7.0 | 0.72× | | [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) | 80.0% | $0.50 | 0.6% | 115 | 111.2 | 1.03× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Tag Heuer Connected x Super Mario other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-connected-x-super-mario) Hidden $69.21 $3,760 54.33x 2026-11-08 16:45 UTC [Tag Heuer Connected x Super Mario other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tag-heuer-connected-x-super-mario) Hidden $69.21 $3,760 54.33x 2026-11-03 16:57 UTC [Puma RS X3 Sega Sonic the Hedgehog (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/puma-rs-x3-sega-sonic-the-hedgehog-us-mens-11) Hidden $69.21 $795 11.49x 2026-11-05 16:23 UTC [Higround x Sonic the Hedgehog Adventure Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-sonic-the-hedgehog-adventure-keyboard) Hidden $69.21 $612 8.84x 2026-11-08 16:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mario-vs-sonic) [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:53 UTC [Nintendo Switch/Lite Super Mario 3D All-Stars Video Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-super-mario-3d-all-stars-video-game) Hidden $69.21 $179 2.59x 2026-11-11 03:22 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 03:22 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $69.21 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 03:22 UTC [Funko Pop! Games Sonic The Hedgehog Tails (Flocked) Target Con Exclusive Figure #641 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-games-sonic-the-hedgehog-tails-flocked-target-con-exclusive-figure-641) Hidden $69.21 $64.00 0.92x 2026-11-11 03:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $69.21 | 89.49% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $3,760 (54.33x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. 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