--- title: "Marketplace GTI case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Marketplace GTI ($580.18) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 13 items with odds, observed 234.31% over 46 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti rendered: 2026-11-12T09:36Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Marketplace GTI](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Marketplace GTI A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti?window=all) Price · $580.18 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $519.26 from 13 items Observed RTP, 30d · 234.31% · 46 openings, odds method Variance · 48.4× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 7 days · 34 openings · below min 30 days · 46 openings · below min since tracking started · 46 openings · below min -0.5% 217.8% 436.0% **Small sample.** 46 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti?window=7d) | 34 | 99.79% ±233.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti) | 46 | 234.31% ±201.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/marketplace-gti?window=all) | 46 | 234.31% ±201.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 13 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 46 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2024 Volkswagen Golf R 4Motion other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-volkswagen-golf-r-4motion) | 1 in 500 | $58.9K | 22.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Volkswagen Golf GTI 380 S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-volkswagen-golf-gti-380-s) | 1 in 333 | $42.4K | 24.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [2017 Volkswagen Golf GTI S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2017-volkswagen-golf-gti-s) | 1 in 200 | $22.7K | 21.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [2017 Volkswagen Golf TSI SE other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2017-volkswagen-golf-tsi-se) | 1 in 200 | $17.8K | 17.1% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [2007 Volkswagen Sharan other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2007-volkswagen-sharan) | 1 in 200 | $2,750 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [2003 Volkswagen Beetle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2003-volkswagen-beetle) | 1 in 200 | $2,000 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [2002 Volkswagen Passat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2002-volkswagen-passat) | 1 in 200 | $1,200 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [2000 Volkswagen Golf MK4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2000-volkswagen-golf-mk4) | 1 in 100 | $800 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [Callaway Golf Men’s Strata Complete Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/callaway-golf-mens-strata-complete-set) | 1 in 100 | $480 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Volkswagen GTI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-gti-badge) | 10.0% | $80.00 | 1.5% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.09× | | [Gran Turismo 7 (PS5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gran-turismo-7-ps5) | 10.0% | $59.00 | 1.1% | 7 | 4.6 | 1.52× | | [Carbon Fiber Volkswagen Emblem other](https://gambatracker.com/items/carbon-fiber-volkswagen-emblem) | 20.0% | $37.50 | 1.4% | 12 | 9.2 | 1.30× | | [Volkswagen TDI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-tdi-badge) | 55.0% | $14.20 | 1.5% | 19 | 25.3 | 0.75× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [2024 Volkswagen Golf GTI 380 S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-volkswagen-golf-gti-380-s) Hidden $580 $42.4K 73.08x 2026-11-04 20:38 UTC [2017 Volkswagen Golf TSI SE other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2017-volkswagen-golf-tsi-se) Hidden $580 $17.8K 30.68x 2026-11-05 14:15 UTC [2000 Volkswagen Golf MK4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2000-volkswagen-golf-mk4) Hidden $580 $800 1.38x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=marketplace-gti) [Volkswagen GTI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-gti-badge) Hidden $580 $80.00 0.14x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC [Volkswagen TDI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-tdi-badge) Hidden $580 $14.20 0.02x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC [Gran Turismo 7 (PS5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gran-turismo-7-ps5) Hidden $580 $59.00 0.10x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC [2000 Volkswagen Golf MK4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2000-volkswagen-golf-mk4) Hidden $580 $800 1.38x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC [Volkswagen TDI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-tdi-badge) Hidden $580 $14.20 0.02x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC [Carbon Fiber Volkswagen Emblem other](https://gambatracker.com/items/carbon-fiber-volkswagen-emblem) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $580 $37.50 0.06x 2026-11-08 11:46 UTC [Carbon Fiber Volkswagen Emblem other](https://gambatracker.com/items/carbon-fiber-volkswagen-emblem) Hidden $580 $37.50 0.06x 2026-11-06 10:29 UTC [Volkswagen TDI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-tdi-badge) Hidden $580 $14.20 0.02x 2026-11-06 10:29 UTC [Volkswagen GTI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-gti-badge) Hidden $580 $80.00 0.14x 2026-11-06 10:29 UTC [Volkswagen TDI Badge other](https://gambatracker.com/items/volkswagen-tdi-badge) [compgreenzzz](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/compgreenzzz) $580 $14.20 0.02x 2026-11-06 10:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $580 | 89.50% | 13 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $42.4K (73.08x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt