---
title: "Masterpiece in Motion case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Masterpiece in Motion ($10.21) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.43% from 18 items with odds, observed 77.28% over 220 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:57Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Masterpiece in Motion](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Masterpiece in Motion

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion?window=all)

Price · $10.21

Advertised RTP · 89.43% · EV $9.13 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 77.28% · 220 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 12.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 26 openings · below min

7 days · 79.53% ±23.55 185 openings

30 days · 77.28% ±21.59 220 openings

since tracking started · 77.28% ±21.59 220 openings

55.0% 120.3% 185.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion?window=24h) | 26 | 122.22% ±62.8 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion?window=7d) | 185 | 79.53% ±23.5 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion) | 220 | 77.28% ±21.6 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/masterpiece-in-motion?window=all) | 220 | 77.28% ±21.6 | −1.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 220 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [LEGO Art Mona Lisa Building Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-art-mona-lisa-building-set) | 1 in 133 | $125 | 10.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.61× |
| [The Last Supper by Leonardo Davinci 24" x 48"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-last-supper-by-leonardo-davinci-24-x-48) | 1 in 133 | $120 | 9.9% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [The Storm on the Sea of Galilee by Rembrandt van Rijn The World Classic Art Reproduction other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-storm-on-the-sea-of-galilee-by-rembrandt-van-rijn-the-world-classic-art-reproduction) | 1 in 100 | $75.00 | 8.2% | 4 | 2.2 | 1.82× |
| [Rotating Paint Brush Holder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rotating-paint-brush-holder) | 1 in 50 | $30.00 | 6.6% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |
| [The Old Guitarist by Pablo Picasso Abstract Canvas Wall Art other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-old-guitarist-by-pablo-picasso-abstract-canvas-wall-art) | 1 in 40 | $22.75 | 6.2% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [Clarkson Potter Show Me The Monet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/clarkson-potter-show-me-the-monet) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 5.5% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [Starry Night by Vincent Van Gogh Jigsaw Puzzle 1000 Piece other](https://gambatracker.com/items/starry-night-by-vincent-van-gogh-jigsaw-puzzle-1000-piece) | 1 in 40 | $18.00 | 4.9% | 2 | 5.5 | 0.36× |
| [Acrylic Paint Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acrylic-paint-set) | 1 in 40 | $16.00 | 4.4% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.09× |
| [Vincent Van Gogh: The Complete Paintings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/vincent-van-gogh-the-complete-paintings) | 1 in 40 | $13.00 | 3.6% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.55× |
| [8 Inch Artists Wooden Manikin other](https://gambatracker.com/items/8-inch-artists-wooden-manikin) | 1 in 20 | $9.00 | 4.9% | 12 | 11.0 | 1.09× |
| [Professional Artist Paint Brush Set of 12 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/professional-artist-paint-brush-set-of-12) | 1 in 20 | $7.00 | 3.8% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [Painting Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/painting-knife) | 1 in 20 | $7.00 | 3.8% | 9 | 11.0 | 0.82× |
| [Multi-Purpose Drawing Parallel Rolling Ruler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/multi-purpose-drawing-parallel-rolling-ruler) | 1 in 13 | $6.00 | 4.9% | 24 | 16.5 | 1.45× |
| [Almost Like Picasso Notebook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/almost-like-picasso-notebook) | 10.0% | $5.70 | 6.2% | 25 | 22.0 | 1.14× |
| [Prismacolor Premier Pencil Sharpener other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prismacolor-premier-pencil-sharpener) | 10.0% | $5.00 | 5.5% | 21 | 22.0 | 0.95× |
| [12 inch Artist Easel Stand other](https://gambatracker.com/items/12-inch-artist-easel-stand) | 12.5% | $4.00 | 5.5% | 32 | 27.5 | 1.16× |
| [Paint Palette other](https://gambatracker.com/items/paint-palette) | 12.5% | $3.00 | 4.1% | 24 | 27.5 | 0.87× |
| [Kneaded Eraser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kneaded-eraser) | 15.5% | $1.00 | 1.7% | 36 | 34.1 | 1.06× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=masterpiece-in-motion)

[Professional Artist Paint Brush Set of 12 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/professional-artist-paint-brush-set-of-12) Hidden $10.21 $7.00 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[Kneaded Eraser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kneaded-eraser) Hidden $10.21 $1.00 0.10x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[Prismacolor Premier Pencil Sharpener other](https://gambatracker.com/items/prismacolor-premier-pencil-sharpener) Hidden $10.21 $5.00 0.49x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[Professional Artist Paint Brush Set of 12 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/professional-artist-paint-brush-set-of-12) Hidden $10.21 $7.00 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[Painting Knife other](https://gambatracker.com/items/painting-knife) Hidden $10.21 $7.00 0.69x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[12 inch Artist Easel Stand other](https://gambatracker.com/items/12-inch-artist-easel-stand) [FallenStar](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/FallenStar) $10.21 $4.00 0.39x 2026-11-11 14:31 UTC

[Clarkson Potter Show Me The Monet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/clarkson-potter-show-me-the-monet) Hidden $10.21 $20.00 1.96x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Acrylic Paint Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/acrylic-paint-set) Hidden $10.21 $16.00 1.57x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Multi-Purpose Drawing Parallel Rolling Ruler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/multi-purpose-drawing-parallel-rolling-ruler) Hidden $10.21 $6.00 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[The Old Guitarist by Pablo Picasso Abstract Canvas Wall Art other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-old-guitarist-by-pablo-picasso-abstract-canvas-wall-art) [Unique Skunk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Unique%20Skunk) $10.21 $22.75 2.23x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.21 | 89.43% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.43 on average: an expected loss of $10.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt