---
title: "Merry Moments case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Merry Moments ($42.83) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 71.21% over 78 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments
rendered: 2026-11-12T00:54Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Merry Moments](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Merry Moments

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments?window=all)

Price · $42.83

Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $38.33 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 71.21% · 78 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 11.1% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 83.4% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 3 openings · below min

7 days · 77 openings · below min

30 days · 78 openings · below min

since tracking started · 78 openings · below min

-0.5% 88.8% 178.0%

**Small sample.** 78 openings and 8.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments?window=24h) | 3 | 24.52% ±152.9 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments?window=7d) | 77 | 71.83% ±30.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments) | 78 | 71.21% ±30.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/merry-moments?window=all) | 78 | 71.21% ±30.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 78 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [LEGO Creator Expert Gingerbread House other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lego-creator-expert-gingerbread-house) | 1 in 18 | $260 | 37.6% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [Shatterproof Christmas Ball Ornaments Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/shatterproof-christmas-ball-ornaments-set) | 1 in 18 | $100 | 14.5% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [The Original World's Largest Gummy Bear other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-original-worlds-largest-gummy-bear) | 1 in 18 | $60.00 | 8.7% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [Warm White Christmas Tree Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/warm-white-christmas-tree-lights) | 1 in 18 | $30.00 | 4.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [Tiny Toblerone Advent Calendar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tiny-toblerone-advent-calendar) | 1 in 18 | $30.00 | 4.3% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [Lindt Gourmet Chocolate Truffles Gift Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lindt-gourmet-chocolate-truffles-gift-box) | 1 in 18 | $25.20 | 3.6% | 4 | 4.3 | 0.92× |
| [Wilton Cookie Cutters Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilton-cookie-cutters-set) | 1 in 18 | $25.00 | 3.6% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| [Women's Christmas Kitchen Apron other](https://gambatracker.com/items/womens-christmas-kitchen-apron) | 1 in 18 | $22.00 | 3.2% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [Sherpa Red and Black Buffalo Plaid Christmas Throw Blanket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sherpa-red-and-black-buffalo-plaid-christmas-throw-blanket) | 1 in 18 | $20.00 | 2.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| [Taylors of Harrogate Assorted Specialty Teas Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/taylors-of-harrogate-assorted-specialty-teas-box) | 1 in 18 | $20.00 | 2.9% | 8 | 4.3 | 1.85× |
| [Christmas Santa Claus & Snowman Snow Globes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-santa-claus-and-snowman-snow-globes) | 1 in 18 | $17.00 | 2.5% | 7 | 4.3 | 1.62× |
| [Tealight Candle Holders for Christmas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tealight-candle-holders-for-christmas) | 1 in 18 | $16.75 | 2.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [Bright 36 Gift Bows other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bright-36-gift-bows) | 1 in 18 | $14.00 | 2.0% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [Home For The Holidays Coloring Book other](https://gambatracker.com/items/home-for-the-holidays-coloring-book) | 1 in 18 | $12.00 | 1.7% | 6 | 4.3 | 1.39× |
| [Jumbo Christmas Stocking other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jumbo-christmas-stocking) | 1 in 18 | $11.00 | 1.6% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× |
| [Merry Christmas Rectangle Pillow Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/merry-christmas-rectangle-pillow-cover) | 1 in 18 | $10.00 | 1.4% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.16× |
| [Christmas Elf Knitted Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-elf-knitted-beanie) | 1 in 18 | $9.50 | 1.4% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× |
| [Santa Claus Charades other](https://gambatracker.com/items/santa-claus-charades) | 1 in 18 | $8.00 | 1.2% | 3 | 4.4 | 0.68× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=merry-moments)

[Bright 36 Gift Bows other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bright-36-gift-bows) Hidden $42.83 $14.00 0.33x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC

[Christmas Elf Knitted Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-elf-knitted-beanie) Hidden $42.83 $9.50 0.22x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC

[Santa Claus Charades other](https://gambatracker.com/items/santa-claus-charades) [Vaniooo](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vaniooo) $42.83 $8.00 0.19x 2026-11-11 08:27 UTC

[The Original World's Largest Gummy Bear other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-original-worlds-largest-gummy-bear) Hidden $42.83 $60.00 1.40x 2026-11-10 21:06 UTC

[Warm White Christmas Tree Lights other](https://gambatracker.com/items/warm-white-christmas-tree-lights) Hidden $42.83 $30.00 0.70x 2026-11-10 21:06 UTC

[Home For The Holidays Coloring Book other](https://gambatracker.com/items/home-for-the-holidays-coloring-book) Hidden $42.83 $12.00 0.28x 2026-11-10 21:06 UTC

[The Original World's Largest Gummy Bear other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-original-worlds-largest-gummy-bear) [Clever Slow loris](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Clever%20Slow%20loris) $42.83 $60.00 1.40x 2026-11-10 21:06 UTC

[Sherpa Red and Black Buffalo Plaid Christmas Throw Blanket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sherpa-red-and-black-buffalo-plaid-christmas-throw-blanket) Hidden $42.83 $20.00 0.47x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC

[Christmas Santa Claus & Snowman Snow Globes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/christmas-santa-claus-and-snowman-snow-globes) Hidden $42.83 $17.00 0.40x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC

[Wilton Cookie Cutters Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilton-cookie-cutters-set) [rekack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/rekack) $42.83 $25.00 0.58x 2026-11-10 12:48 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $42.83 | 89.49% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt