--- title: "Midnight Sleigh Drop case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Midnight Sleigh Drop ($0.25) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 88.24% from 6 items with odds, observed 87.82% over 53.9K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop rendered: 2026-11-11T21:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Midnight Sleigh Drop](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Midnight Sleigh Drop A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop?window=all) Price · $0.25 Advertised RTP · 88.24% · EV $0.22 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 87.82% · 53.9K openings, odds method Variance · 29.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 100 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.21% ±17.55 3,720 openings 7 days · 86.72% ±5.59 36.7K openings 30 days · 87.82% ±4.61 53.9K openings since tracking started · 87.82% ±4.61 53.9K openings 73.0% 91.3% 109.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop?window=24h) | 3,720 | 91.21% ±17.6 | +0.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop?window=7d) | 36.7K | 86.72% ±5.59 | −0.5σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop) | 53.9K | 87.82% ±4.61 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/midnight-sleigh-drop?window=all) | 53.9K | 87.82% ±4.61 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 53.9K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) | 1 in 500 | $25.00 | 22.7% | 103 | 107.9 | 0.95× | | [FIFA Water Bottle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fifa-water-bottle) | 1 in 333 | $12.00 | 16.3% | 175 | 161.8 | 1.08× | | [Prada Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/prada-pin) | 1 in 200 | $5.00 | 11.3% | 260 | 269.7 | 0.96× | | [Stress Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stress-ball) | 1 in 200 | $2.30 | 5.2% | 266 | 269.7 | 0.99× | | [AirTag Holder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/airtag-holder) | 1 in 13 | $1.00 | 36.3% | 4,277 | 4314.6 | 0.99× | | [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) | 90.5% | $0.02 | 8.2% | 48,851 | 48808.5 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) [GaNg3r](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/GaNg3r) $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) Hidden $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-11 09:27 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) Hidden $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-11 07:04 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) Hidden $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-11 00:18 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) [V\*\*\*x](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/V***x-8065205) $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-10 22:45 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) [KAMOTE](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KAMOTE) $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-10 22:33 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) [Vxpiix](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vxpiix) $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-10 22:22 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) [Vxpiix](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Vxpiix) $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-10 20:32 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) Hidden $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-10 19:41 UTC [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) Hidden $0.25 $25.00 100.0x 2026-11-10 18:04 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=midnight-sleigh-drop) [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) [wor\*\*\*dad](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/wor***dad-8456285) $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:37 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [AirTag Holder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/airtag-holder) [Sleepy Pumpkin](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Sleepy%20Pumpkin) $0.25 $1.00 4.00x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC [Tea Bag other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tea-bag) Hidden $0.25 $0.02 0.08x 2026-11-11 20:31 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.25 | 88.24% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $25.00 (100.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.24 on average: an expected loss of $11.76 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt