--- title: "Mischievous case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mischievous ($108.96) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 65.99% over 160 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous rendered: 2026-11-11T22:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Mischievous](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Mischievous A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous?window=all) Price · $108.96 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $97.51 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 65.99% · 160 openings, odds method Variance · 10.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 40 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 127 openings · below min 30 days · 160 openings · below min since tracking started · 160 openings · below min -0.5% 139.3% 279.0% **Small sample.** 160 openings and 4.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous?window=24h) | 6 | 13.45% ±264.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous?window=7d) | 127 | 76.17% ±57.5 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous) | 160 | 65.99% ±51.3 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mischievous?window=all) | 160 | 65.99% ±51.3 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 160 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [MSCHF BWD Shoe (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-bwd-shoe-us-mens-10) | 1 in 500 | $4,320 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [MSCHF & Tiffany & Co. The Ultimate Participation Trophy (Edition of 100) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-and-tiffany-and-co-the-ultimate-participation-trophy-edition-of-100) | 1 in 333 | $2,450 | 7.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [MSCHF Global Supply Chain Telephone Handbag Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-global-supply-chain-telephone-handbag-orange) | 1 in 200 | $2,090 | 10.7% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [MSCHF Global Supply Chain Telephone Handbag Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-global-supply-chain-telephone-handbag-blue) | 1 in 200 | $1,860 | 9.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [MSCHF x Umbro Wavy Soccer Ball Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-umbro-wavy-soccer-ball-multicolor) | 1 in 100 | $1,400 | 14.4% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [MSCHF Global Supply Chain Telephone Handbag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-global-supply-chain-telephone-handbag-black) | 1 in 100 | $1,020 | 10.5% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [MSCHF AC1 Grey (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-ac1-grey-us-mens-10) | 1 in 100 | $850 | 8.7% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [MSCHF Super Normal Friends and Family Deer Hunter (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-super-normal-friends-and-family-deer-hunter-us-mens-10) | 1 in 200 | $600 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [MSCHF x Crocs Big Red Boot (Yellow) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-crocs-big-red-boot-yellow-us-10) | 1 in 100 | $452 | 4.6% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [MSCHF Big Red Boot (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-big-red-boot-us-mens-10) | 1 in 100 | $275 | 2.8% | 2 | 1.6 | 1.25× | | [MSCHF Boosted Packs V1 Individual Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-boosted-packs-v1-individual-pack) | 1 in 40 | $245 | 6.3% | 4 | 4.0 | 1.00× | | [MSCHF x Highsnobiety Blur €50 Euro Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-highsnobiety-blur-50-euro-figure) | 1 in 100 | $225 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× | | [MSCHF Nothing Is Sacred Cap Donut other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-nothing-is-sacred-cap-donut) | 1 in 100 | $206 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [MSCHF x 100 Thieves Dino Swords Vinyl Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-100-thieves-dino-swords-vinyl-figure) | 1 in 100 | $130 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.63× | | [MSCHF Blur ¥100 Yuan Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-blur-100-yuan-figure) | 1 in 40 | $88.00 | 2.3% | 2 | 4.0 | 0.50× | | [MSCHF x Hot Wheels "Not Wheels™"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-hot-wheels-not-wheels) | 1 in 40 | $83.00 | 2.1% | 5 | 4.0 | 1.25× | | [MSCHF Nothing Is Sacred Poster Burger other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-nothing-is-sacred-poster-burger) | 1 in 40 | $80.00 | 2.1% | 1 | 4.0 | 0.25× | | [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) | 80.0% | $0.99 | 0.8% | 136 | 128.0 | 1.06× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MSCHF Global Supply Chain Telephone Handbag Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-global-supply-chain-telephone-handbag-orange) Hidden $109 $2,090 19.18x 2026-11-08 15:05 UTC [MSCHF x Umbro Wavy Soccer Ball Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-umbro-wavy-soccer-ball-multicolor) Hidden $109 $1,400 12.85x 2026-11-07 11:36 UTC [MSCHF x Umbro Wavy Soccer Ball Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-umbro-wavy-soccer-ball-multicolor) [Trecky](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Trecky) $109 $1,400 12.85x 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC [MSCHF Global Supply Chain Telephone Handbag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-global-supply-chain-telephone-handbag-black) Hidden $109 $1,020 9.36x 2026-11-10 03:32 UTC [MSCHF Global Supply Chain Telephone Handbag Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-global-supply-chain-telephone-handbag-black) Hidden $109 $1,020 9.36x 2026-11-07 13:32 UTC [MSCHF AC1 Grey (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-ac1-grey-us-mens-10) Hidden $109 $850 7.80x 2026-11-09 17:01 UTC [MSCHF Super Normal Friends and Family Deer Hunter (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-super-normal-friends-and-family-deer-hunter-us-mens-10) Hidden $109 $600 5.51x 2026-11-03 11:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mischievous) [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [MSCHF x Hot Wheels "Not Wheels™"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mschf-x-hot-wheels-not-wheels) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $109 $83.00 0.76x 2026-11-11 09:02 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC [Misdreavus #63 Pokemon Silver Tempest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/misdreavus-63-pokemon-silver-tempest) Hidden $109 $0.99 0.01x 2026-11-10 14:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $109 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,090 (19.18x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt