--- title: "MJ's Secret Stash case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "MJ's Secret Stash ($859.29) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 20 items with odds, observed 118.02% over 6 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash rendered: 2026-11-12T11:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [MJ's Secret Stash](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · MJ's Secret Stash A box on Cases.gg (Shoes), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash?window=all) Price · $859.29 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $769.06 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 118.02% · 6 openings, odds method Variance · 2.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 11 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 80.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 6 openings · below min since tracking started · 6 openings · below min -0.5% 122.0% 244.5% **Small sample.** 6 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash?window=24h) | 6 | 118.02% ±126.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash?window=7d) | 6 | 118.02% ±126.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash) | 6 | 118.02% ±126.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mjs-secret-stash?window=all) | 6 | 118.02% ±126.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White Chicago (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-off-white-chicago-us-7) | 1 in 100 | $7,900 | 10.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG SP Fragment x Travis Scott (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sp-fragment-x-travis-scott-us-9) | 1 in 80 | $6,360 | 10.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro Travis Scott Cactus Jack (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-travis-scott-cactus-jack-us-7) | 1 in 50 | $4,800 | 12.5% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 11 Retro Pantone (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-11-retro-pantone-us-7) | 1 in 31 | $3,880 | 16.4% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High Off-White University Blue (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-off-white-university-blue-us-11) | 1 in 67 | $2,200 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Black (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-black-us-11) | 1 in 44 | $1,462 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroMetallic Red (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrometallic-red-us-7) | 1 in 40 | $1,440 | 4.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Guava Ice (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-guava-ice-us-11) | 1 in 37 | $1,233 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Sail (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-sail-us-7) | 1 in 29 | $891 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 11 Retro Playoffs CDP (2008) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-11-retro-playoffs-cdp-2008-us-7) | 1 in 25 | $744 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Off Noir (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-off-noir-us-7) | 1 in 35 | $725 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 4 RetroRed Thunder (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrored-thunder-us-7) | 1 in 24 | $692 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan Jumpman Jack TR Travis Scott University Red (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-jumpman-jack-tr-travis-scott-university-red-us-7) | 1 in 33 | $680 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG University Blue (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-university-blue-us-8) | 1 in 22 | $450 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 4 Retro Red Cement (US 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-red-cement-us-13) | 1 in 20 | $340 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Lucky Green (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-lucky-green-us-7) | 1 in 19 | $245 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Light Fusion Red (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-light-fusion-red-us-7) | 1 in 17 | $225 | 1.8% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP SoleFly (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-solefly-us-11) | 1 in 18 | $185 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Yellow Ochre (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-yellow-ochre-us-8) | 29.8% | $125 | 4.8% | 3 | 1.8 | 1.68× | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Dark Marina Blue (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-dark-marina-blue-us-8) | 10.0% | $110 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 09:09 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Jordan 4 Retro Travis Scott Cactus Jack (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-travis-scott-cactus-jack-us-7) Hidden $859 $4,800 5.59x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Off Noir (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-off-noir-us-7) Hidden $859 $725 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mjs-secret-stash) [Jordan 4 Retro Travis Scott Cactus Jack (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retro-travis-scott-cactus-jack-us-7) Hidden $859 $4,800 5.59x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Jordan 4 RetroUnion Off Noir (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-4-retrounion-off-noir-us-7) Hidden $859 $725 0.84x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Yellow Ochre (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-yellow-ochre-us-8) Hidden $859 $125 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG SP SoleFly (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-sp-solefly-us-11) Hidden $859 $185 0.22x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Yellow Ochre (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-yellow-ochre-us-8) Hidden $859 $125 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Jordan 1 Retro High OG Yellow Ochre (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-yellow-ochre-us-8) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $859 $125 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $859 | 89.50% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $4,800 (5.59x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt