--- title: "Monaco Case case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Monaco Case ($1,374.58) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 156.17% over 18 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case rendered: 2026-11-11T16:52Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Monaco Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Monaco Case A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case?window=all) Price · $1,374.58 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $1,230.24 from 11 items Observed RTP, 30d · 156.17% · 18 openings, odds method Variance · 28.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 49 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.7% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 12 openings · below min 7 days · 18 openings · below min 30 days · 18 openings · below min since tracking started · 18 openings · below min -0.5% 204.5% 409.5% **Small sample.** 18 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case?window=24h) | 12 | 105.95% ±302.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case?window=7d) | 18 | 156.17% ±247.1 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case) | 18 | 156.17% ±247.1 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/monaco-case?window=all) | 18 | 156.17% ±247.1 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Patek Philippe 5811/1G Nautilus other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-5811-1g-nautilus) | 1 in 2,000 | $215K | 8.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Patek Philippe 5711/1A-011 Nautilus 5711 Stainless Steel (Silver Dial) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/patek-philippe-5711-1a-011-nautilus-5711-stainless-steel-silver-dial) | 1 in 1,000 | $138K | 11.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [2023 Chevrolet Silverado 2500HD LTZ other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2023-chevrolet-silverado-2500hd-ltz) | 1 in 667 | $67.1K | 8.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [LEON MARTENS BRACELET 1111019513 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leon-martens-bracelet-1111019513) | 1 in 400 | $23.7K | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Eternal Gold Snake Bracelet In Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/eternal-gold-snake-bracelet-in-yellow-gold) | 1 in 200 | $19K | 7.7% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Milgauss other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-milgauss) | 1 in 200 | $16K | 6.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Speedy P9 Bandoulière 40 Monogram Leather Brown Monogram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-speedy-p9-bandouliere-40-monogram-leather-brown-monogram) | 1 in 200 | $12.6K | 5.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [3.00CTW FLOWER STUD DIAMOND EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-00ctw-flower-stud-diamond-earrings-14k-solid-gold) | 1 in 133 | $9,000 | 5.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra 5 Motif Bracelet Onyx 18K Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-vintage-alhambra-5-motif-bracelet-onyx-18k-yellow-gold) | 1 in 133 | $7,500 | 4.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [1.00CTW SOLITAIRE DIAMOND STUD EARRINGS 14K SOLID GOLD other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1-00ctw-solitaire-diamond-stud-earrings-14k-solid-gold) | 1 in 133 | $5,500 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) | 95.7% | $441 | 34.3% | 16 | 17.2 | 0.93× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Eternal Gold Snake Bracelet In Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/eternal-gold-snake-bracelet-in-yellow-gold) Hidden $1,375 $19K 13.79x 2026-11-09 16:21 UTC [Louis Vuitton Speedy P9 Bandoulière 40 Monogram Leather Brown Monogram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-speedy-p9-bandouliere-40-monogram-leather-brown-monogram) Hidden $1,375 $12.6K 9.18x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=monaco-case) [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC [Louis Vuitton Speedy P9 Bandoulière 40 Monogram Leather Brown Monogram other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-speedy-p9-bandouliere-40-monogram-leather-brown-monogram) Hidden $1,375 $12.6K 9.18x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC [Louis Vuitton Neo Card Holder (2 Card Slot)Damier Graphite other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-neo-card-holder-2-card-slot-damier-graphite) Hidden $1,375 $441 0.32x 2026-11-11 00:14 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1,375 | 89.50% | 11 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $19K (13.79x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt