---
title: "Morning Routine case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Morning Routine ($186.11) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 14 items with odds, observed 132.88% over 109 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:52Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Morning Routine](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Morning Routine

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine?window=all)

Price · $186.11

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $166.56 from 14 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 132.88% · 109 openings, odds method

Variance · 24.9× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 57 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 94.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 97 openings · below min

30 days · 109 openings · below min

since tracking started · 109 openings · below min

-0.5% 211.5% 423.5%

**Small sample.** 109 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine?window=24h) | 6 | 23.25% ±399.7 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine?window=7d) | 97 | 147.88% ±99.4 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine) | 109 | 132.88% ±93.8 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/morning-routine?window=all) | 109 | 132.88% ±93.8 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 109 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [ROLEX DATEJUST 36MM 18K YELLOW GOLD & STEEL (16233) - 1.00CTW DIAMOND BEZEL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-datejust-36mm-18k-yellow-gold-and-steel-16233-1-00ctw-diamond-bezel) | 1 in 400 | $11.8K | 17.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra 5 Motif Bracelet Onyx 18K Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-vintage-alhambra-5-motif-bracelet-onyx-18k-yellow-gold) | 1 in 200 | $7,500 | 22.5% | 2 | 0.5 | — |
| [2.5MM MIAMI CUBAN 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2-5mm-miami-cuban-14k-solid-gold-chain) | 1 in 100 | $4,000 | 24.0% | 2 | 1.1 | 1.83× |
| [T1 Ring in Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/t1-ring-in-yellow-gold) | 1 in 133 | $3,600 | 16.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Apple AirPods 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-4) | 1 in 33 | $240 | 4.3% | 4 | 3.3 | 1.22× |
| [Conditioning Chest Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/conditioning-chest-pack) | 1 in 33 | $160 | 2.9% | 3 | 3.3 | 0.92× |
| [Montblanc Sketch Book other](https://gambatracker.com/items/montblanc-sketch-book) | 1 in 33 | $130 | 2.3% | 6 | 3.3 | 1.83× |
| [Brooks Hyperion Tempo Road Running Shoes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/brooks-hyperion-tempo-road-running-shoes) | 1 in 20 | $90.00 | 2.7% | 5 | 5.5 | 0.92× |
| [SAXX Underwear Co. Men's Soft Boxer Brief Pack of 3 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saxx-underwear-co-mens-soft-boxer-brief-pack-of-3) | 1 in 12 | $65.00 | 3.3% | 9 | 9.3 | 0.97× |
| [Mouth Hostage Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mouth-hostage-tape) | 10.0% | $25.00 | 1.5% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [Nose Hostage Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nose-hostage-tape) | 10.0% | $20.00 | 1.2% | 8 | 10.9 | 0.73× |
| [Compression Calf Sleeves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/compression-calf-sleeves) | 10.0% | $16.00 | 1.0% | 12 | 10.9 | 1.10× |
| [Saratoga Natural Spring Water other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saratoga-natural-spring-water) | 20.0% | $1.50 | 0.2% | 20 | 21.8 | 0.92× |
| [Bananas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bananas) | 25.0% | $0.70 | 0.1% | 26 | 27.3 | 0.95× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra 5 Motif Bracelet Onyx 18K Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-vintage-alhambra-5-motif-bracelet-onyx-18k-yellow-gold) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $186 $7,500 40.30x 2026-11-05 15:19 UTC

[Van Cleef & Arpels Vintage Alhambra 5 Motif Bracelet Onyx 18K Yellow Gold other](https://gambatracker.com/items/van-cleef-and-arpels-vintage-alhambra-5-motif-bracelet-onyx-18k-yellow-gold) Hidden $186 $7,500 40.30x 2026-11-05 15:17 UTC

[2.5MM MIAMI CUBAN 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2-5mm-miami-cuban-14k-solid-gold-chain) Hidden $186 $4,000 21.49x 2026-11-06 06:36 UTC

[2.5MM MIAMI CUBAN 14K SOLID GOLD CHAIN other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2-5mm-miami-cuban-14k-solid-gold-chain) Hidden $186 $4,000 21.49x 2026-11-05 13:26 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=morning-routine)

[Apple AirPods 4 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-4) Hidden $186 $240 1.29x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Bananas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bananas) Hidden $186 $0.70 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Saratoga Natural Spring Water other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saratoga-natural-spring-water) Hidden $186 $1.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Bananas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bananas) Hidden $186 $0.70 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Compression Calf Sleeves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/compression-calf-sleeves) Hidden $186 $16.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Bananas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bananas) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $186 $0.70 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC

[Nose Hostage Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nose-hostage-tape) Hidden $186 $20.00 0.11x 2026-11-10 03:44 UTC

[Brooks Hyperion Tempo Road Running Shoes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/brooks-hyperion-tempo-road-running-shoes) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $186 $90.00 0.48x 2026-11-10 03:44 UTC

[Nose Hostage Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nose-hostage-tape) Hidden $186 $20.00 0.11x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC

[Compression Calf Sleeves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/compression-calf-sleeves) [Chode Muncher 🍆](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Chode%20Muncher%20%F0%9F%8D%86) $186 $16.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 03:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $186 | 89.50% | 14 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $7,500 (40.30x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt