---
title: "MTG Fanatic case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "MTG Fanatic ($131.50) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 32.90% over 28 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic
rendered: 2026-11-11T20:36Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [MTG Fanatic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · MTG Fanatic

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic?window=all)

Price · $131.50

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $117.69 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 32.90% · 28 openings, odds method

Variance · 24.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 80.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 22 openings · below min

30 days · 28 openings · below min

since tracking started · 28 openings · below min

-0.5% 122.8% 246.0%

**Small sample.** 28 openings and 1.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic?window=7d) | 22 | 39.32% ±205.9 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic) | 28 | 32.90% ±182.5 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mtg-fanatic?window=all) | 28 | 32.90% ±182.5 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 28 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [1993 Magic The Gathering MTG Arabian Nights Bazaar Of Baghdad U3 L PSA 10 GEM other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1993-magic-the-gathering-mtg-arabian-nights-bazaar-of-baghdad-u3-l-psa-10-gem) | 1 in 2,000 | $24K | 10.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [1994 Magic The Gathering MTG Antiquities Mishra's Workshop PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1994-magic-the-gathering-mtg-antiquities-mishras-workshop-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 10,000 | $15K | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [1993 Magic The Gathering MTG Arabian Nights Booster Pack PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1993-magic-the-gathering-mtg-arabian-nights-booster-pack-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 10,000 | $12K | 1.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [1993 Magic The Gathering MTG Alpha Tranquility C G PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1993-magic-the-gathering-mtg-alpha-tranquility-c-g-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 333 | $3,955 | 10.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [1998 Magic The Gathering MTG Urza's Saga Sealed Foil Pack PSA 10 GEM MINT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/1998-magic-the-gathering-mtg-urzas-saga-sealed-foil-pack-psa-10-gem-mint) | 1 in 200 | $2,400 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Foreign Limited: Starter Deck other](https://gambatracker.com/items/foreign-limited-starter-deck) | 1 in 100 | $1,200 | 10.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Portal Second Age Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/portal-second-age-full-set) | 1 in 40 | $540 | 11.5% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Zendikar Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zendikar-full-set) | 1 in 40 | $389 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Legends Italian Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/legends-italian-booster) | 1 in 33 | $330 | 8.4% | 1 | 0.8 | — |
| [Torment Full Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/torment-full-set) | 1 in 20 | $220 | 9.3% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [Dominaria United Set Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dominaria-united-set-booster-box) | 1 in 20 | $175 | 7.4% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.43× |
| [Exodus Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/exodus-booster) | 1 in 13 | $65.00 | 4.1% | 2 | 2.1 | 0.95× |
| [Mercadian Masques Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mercadian-masques-booster) | 1 in 13 | $42.00 | 2.7% | 5 | 2.1 | 2.38× |
| [Magic: The Gathering Foundations Collector Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-the-gathering-foundations-collector-booster) | 10.0% | $23.00 | 2.0% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.07× |
| [Universes Beyond: Assassin's Creed: Starter Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/universes-beyond-assassins-creed-starter-kit) | 10.1% | $12.00 | 1.0% | 6 | 2.8 | 2.12× |
| [2023 Starter Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2023-starter-kit) | 12.5% | $10.00 | 1.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Betrayers of Kamigawa Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/betrayers-of-kamigawa-booster) | 12.5% | $5.25 | 0.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× |
| [Modern Horizons 2 Draft Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/modern-horizons-2-draft-booster) | 20.0% | $4.00 | 0.7% | 5 | 5.6 | 0.89× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mtg-fanatic)

[Betrayers of Kamigawa Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/betrayers-of-kamigawa-booster) Hidden $132 $5.25 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:37 UTC

[Mercadian Masques Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mercadian-masques-booster) Hidden $132 $42.00 0.32x 2026-11-10 06:37 UTC

[Betrayers of Kamigawa Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/betrayers-of-kamigawa-booster) Hidden $132 $5.25 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:37 UTC

[Exodus Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/exodus-booster) Hidden $132 $65.00 0.49x 2026-11-10 06:37 UTC

[Exodus Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/exodus-booster) Hidden $132 $65.00 0.49x 2026-11-10 06:37 UTC

[Magic: The Gathering Foundations Collector Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-the-gathering-foundations-collector-booster) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $132 $23.00 0.17x 2026-11-10 06:37 UTC

[Magic: The Gathering Foundations Collector Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/magic-the-gathering-foundations-collector-booster) Hidden $132 $23.00 0.17x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[Mercadian Masques Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mercadian-masques-booster) Hidden $132 $42.00 0.32x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[Universes Beyond: Assassin's Creed: Starter Kit other](https://gambatracker.com/items/universes-beyond-assassins-creed-starter-kit) Hidden $132 $12.00 0.09x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

[Mercadian Masques Booster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mercadian-masques-booster) Hidden $132 $42.00 0.32x 2026-11-10 06:35 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $132 | 89.50% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt