--- title: "Mystery Kicks case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystery Kicks ($1.16) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 26 items with odds, observed 293.67% over 7,146 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks rendered: 2026-11-11T23:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Mystery Kicks](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Mystery Kicks A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks?window=all) Price · $1.16 Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $1.04 from 26 items Observed RTP, 30d · 293.67% · 7,146 openings, odds method Variance · 5937.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12,500 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 658 openings · below min 7 days · 5,382 openings · below min 30 days · 7,146 openings · below min since tracking started · 7,146 openings · below min -0.5% 312.8% 626.0% **Small sample.** 7,146 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks?window=24h) | 658 | 36.41% ±588.8 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks?window=7d) | 5,382 | 66.47% ±205.9 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks) | 7,146 | 293.67% ±178.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-kicks?window=all) | 7,146 | 293.67% ±178.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 26 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,146 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Jordan 1 Retro High Fragment (Friends and Family) (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-fragment-friends-and-family-us-12) | 1 in 50,000 | $19.2K | 37.0% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Kyrie 3 Sneaker Room Mom PE (Gold) (US 8.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kyrie-3-sneaker-room-mom-pe-gold-us-8-5) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,465 | 6.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White MCA University Blue (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-mca-university-blue-us-7) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,240 | 6.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Nike Air Max 90 Off-White Desert Ore (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-off-white-desert-ore-us-9) | 1 in 50,000 | $899 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350Turtledove (2022) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350turtledove-2022-us-10) | 1 in 50,000 | $740 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Converse Chuck Taylor All Star 70 Hi Off-White (US 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/converse-chuck-taylor-all-star-70-hi-off-white-us-11-5) | 1 in 50,000 | $694 | 1.3% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Glow (US 14) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2-glow-us-14) | 1 in 50,000 | $576 | 1.1% | 2 | 0.1 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Core Black White (2016/2022) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2core-black-white-2016-2022-us-11) | 1 in 33,333 | $550 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Jordan 11 Retro Cool Grey (2021) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-11-retro-cool-grey-2021-us-11) | 1 in 25,000 | $460 | 1.8% | 2 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG University Blue (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-university-blue-us-10) | 1 in 20,000 | $444 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low Chlorophyll (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-chlorophyll-us-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $430 | 4.1% | 1 | 0.7 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Layers of Love (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-layers-of-love-us-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $400 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro High OG True Blue (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-og-true-blue-us-7) | 1 in 14,286 | $395 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Flyleather Ruohan Wang (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-flyleather-ruohan-wang-us-11) | 1 in 33,333 | $392 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Slate (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2slate-us-7) | 1 in 25,000 | $388 | 1.5% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan 1 Retro Low OG Atmosphere Grey (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-low-og-atmosphere-grey-us-7) | 1 in 16,667 | $380 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Triple Red (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-triple-red-us-8) | 1 in 11,111 | $375 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Mid Off-White Pine Green (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-mid-off-white-pine-green-us-7) | 1 in 11,111 | $260 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Boost 350Pirate Black (2023) (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350pirate-black-2023-us-7) | 1 in 12,500 | $200 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low White Hyper Royal (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-white-hyper-royal-us-11) | 1 in 7,143 | $160 | 2.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | | [Nike Dunk Low Athletic Department University Blue (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-athletic-department-university-blue-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $130 | 1.3% | 2 | 0.7 | — | | [adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-us-12) | 1 in 8,333 | $125 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.9 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low Dark Team Red Black (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-dark-team-red-black-us-10) | 1 in 7,143 | $91.00 | 1.2% | 2 | 1.0 | 2.00× | | [Nike Dunk Low Team Gold (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-team-gold-us-8) | 1 in 2,000 | $70.00 | 3.4% | 4 | 3.6 | 1.12× | | [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) | 44.8% | $0.10 | 4.3% | 3,226 | 3202.0 | 1.01× | | [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) | 55.0% | $0.05 | 2.7% | 3,902 | 3930.3 | 0.99× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Jordan 1 Retro High Fragment (Friends and Family) (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-1-retro-high-fragment-friends-and-family-us-12) Hidden $1.16 $19.2K 16,552x 2026-11-04 21:23 UTC [Converse Chuck Taylor All Star 70 Hi Off-White (US 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/converse-chuck-taylor-all-star-70-hi-off-white-us-11-5) Hidden $1.16 $694 598.3x 2026-11-09 20:02 UTC [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Glow (US 14) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2-glow-us-14) Hidden $1.16 $576 496.6x 2026-11-08 20:04 UTC [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2 Glow (US 14) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2-glow-us-14) Hidden $1.16 $576 496.6x 2026-11-03 13:51 UTC [Jordan 11 Retro Cool Grey (2021) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-11-retro-cool-grey-2021-us-11) Hidden $1.16 $460 396.6x 2026-11-09 20:06 UTC [Jordan 11 Retro Cool Grey (2021) (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-11-retro-cool-grey-2021-us-11) Hidden $1.16 $460 396.6x 2026-11-09 09:37 UTC [Nike Dunk Low Chlorophyll (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-chlorophyll-us-7) Hidden $1.16 $430 370.7x 2026-11-07 14:24 UTC [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Slate (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2slate-us-7) Hidden $1.16 $388 334.5x 2026-11-05 00:52 UTC [Nike Dunk Low White Hyper Royal (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-white-hyper-royal-us-11) [jza](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jza) $1.16 $160 137.9x 2026-11-11 20:06 UTC [Nike Dunk Low White Hyper Royal (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-white-hyper-royal-us-11) Hidden $1.16 $160 137.9x 2026-11-06 20:43 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mystery-kicks) [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.05 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) [Friendly Camel](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Friendly%20Camel) $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 23:13 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.05 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [Retro Off White Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/retro-off-white-sticker) Hidden $1.16 $0.05 0.04x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC [Air Jordan Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/air-jordan-sticker) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $1.16 $0.10 0.09x 2026-11-11 22:42 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.16 | 89.46% | 26 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $19.2K (16,552x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt