--- title: "Mystery Micro case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystery Micro ($12.91) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 20 items with odds, observed 84.42% over 433 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro rendered: 2026-11-11T20:07Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Mystery Micro](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Mystery Micro A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro?window=all) Price · $12.91 Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $11.55 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 84.42% · 433 openings, odds method Variance · 4.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 24.0% · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 76.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 36 openings · below min 7 days · 82.01% ±21.74 377 openings 30 days · 84.42% ±20.28 433 openings since tracking started · 84.42% ±20.28 433 openings -0.5% 69.5% 139.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro?window=24h) | 36 | 68.59% ±70.3 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro?window=7d) | 377 | 82.01% ±21.7 | −0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro) | 433 | 84.42% ±20.3 | −0.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystery-micro?window=all) | 433 | 84.42% ±20.3 | −0.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 433 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [DJI Mini 2 – Ultralight and Foldable Drone Quadcopter other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dji-mini-2-ultralight-and-foldable-drone-quadcopter) | 1 in 1,667 | $780 | 4.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [PlayStation®5 Digital Edition (Slim) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/playstation-5-digital-edition-slim) | 1 in 2,000 | $730 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Apple AirPods Pro (2nd Generation) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/apple-airpods-pro-2nd-generation) | 1 in 1,429 | $345 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [14-inch Stanley Cup Champions Trophy Replica other](https://gambatracker.com/items/14-inch-stanley-cup-champions-trophy-replica) | 1 in 1,250 | $130 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Jordan x Travis Scott T-shirt Brown (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-x-travis-scott-t-shirt-brown-us-m) | 1 in 1,111 | $81.00 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Crocs Classic Clog Minecraft Grass Block (US Men's 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-minecraft-grass-block-us-mens-9) | 1 in 1,000 | $67.00 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.4 | — | | [Dog Bed other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dog-bed) | 1 in 400 | $62.00 | 1.3% | 1 | 1.1 | 0.92× | | [Captain America's Shield other](https://gambatracker.com/items/captain-americas-shield) | 1 in 200 | $44.00 | 1.9% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [PowerA Advantage Wired Controller for Xbox Series X\|S with Lumectra other](https://gambatracker.com/items/powera-advantage-wired-controller-for-xbox-series-x-s-with-lumectra) | 1 in 125 | $37.28 | 2.6% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.58× | | [Naruto Shippuden Ichiraku Ramen Bowl other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-shippuden-ichiraku-ramen-bowl) | 1 in 100 | $28.00 | 2.4% | 3 | 4.3 | 0.69× | | [Screaming Goat Button other](https://gambatracker.com/items/screaming-goat-button) | 1 in 33 | $25.00 | 6.5% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [Amazon Basics Computer Speakers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-computer-speakers) | 1 in 33 | $24.00 | 6.2% | 14 | 13.0 | 1.08× | | [Bathroom Scale other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bathroom-scale) | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 8.7% | 26 | 21.7 | 1.20× | | [Garden Shovel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garden-shovel) | 10.0% | $18.32 | 15.9% | 48 | 43.3 | 1.11× | | [PopSockets Translucent Phone Grip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/popsockets-translucent-phone-grip) | 10.0% | $11.99 | 10.4% | 50 | 43.3 | 1.15× | | [Sony ZX Series Wired On-Ear Headphones, Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sony-zx-series-wired-on-ear-headphones-black) | 10.0% | $9.99 | 8.6% | 52 | 43.3 | 1.20× | | [DC Batman Logo Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/dc-batman-logo-pin) | 10.0% | $6.99 | 6.1% | 43 | 43.3 | 0.99× | | [Resistance Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/resistance-band) | 10.0% | $6.99 | 6.1% | 42 | 43.3 | 0.97× | | [Cucumber Doll other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cucumber-doll) | 15.0% | $5.00 | 6.5% | 60 | 65.0 | 0.92× | | [Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/keychain) | 21.0% | $3.00 | 5.5% | 78 | 90.9 | 0.86× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mystery-micro) [PopSockets Translucent Phone Grip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/popsockets-translucent-phone-grip) Hidden $12.91 $11.99 0.93x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [Garden Shovel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garden-shovel) Hidden $12.91 $18.32 1.42x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [PopSockets Translucent Phone Grip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/popsockets-translucent-phone-grip) Hidden $12.91 $11.99 0.93x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [Cucumber Doll other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cucumber-doll) Hidden $12.91 $5.00 0.39x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [Amazon Basics Computer Speakers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/amazon-basics-computer-speakers) Hidden $12.91 $24.00 1.86x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [DC Batman Logo Pin pin](https://gambatracker.com/items/dc-batman-logo-pin) [Majestic Unicorn](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Majestic%20Unicorn) $12.91 $6.99 0.54x 2026-11-11 09:57 UTC [Resistance Band other](https://gambatracker.com/items/resistance-band) Hidden $12.91 $6.99 0.54x 2026-11-11 08:17 UTC [Cucumber Doll other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cucumber-doll) Hidden $12.91 $5.00 0.39x 2026-11-11 08:17 UTC [Sony ZX Series Wired On-Ear Headphones, Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sony-zx-series-wired-on-ear-headphones-black) Hidden $12.91 $9.99 0.77x 2026-11-11 08:17 UTC [Garden Shovel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/garden-shovel) Hidden $12.91 $18.32 1.42x 2026-11-11 08:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.91 | 89.46% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt