--- title: "Mystic Mana case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Mystic Mana ($10.04) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.43% from 18 items with odds, observed 76.22% over 1,017 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana rendered: 2026-11-12T04:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Mystic Mana](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Mystic Mana A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana?window=all) Price · $10.04 Advertised RTP · 89.43% · EV $8.98 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 76.22% · 1,017 openings, odds method Variance · 20.3× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 90.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 175 openings · below min 7 days · 89.47% ±31.23 798 openings 30 days · 76.22% ±27.67 1,017 openings since tracking started · 76.22% ±27.67 1,017 openings 20.5% 87.8% 155.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana?window=24h) | 175 | 87.68% ±66.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana?window=7d) | 798 | 89.47% ±31.2 | +0.0σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana) | 1,017 | 76.22% ±27.7 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/mystic-mana?window=all) | 1,017 | 76.22% ±27.7 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,017 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Zendikar Rising Collector Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zendikar-rising-collector-booster-box) | 1 in 100 | $400 | 44.5% | 10 | 10.2 | 0.98× | | [Ravnica Remastered Draft Booster Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ravnica-remastered-draft-booster-box) | 1 in 100 | $220 | 24.5% | 4 | 10.2 | 0.39× | | [Command Tower other](https://gambatracker.com/items/command-tower) | 1 in 40 | $28.00 | 7.8% | 33 | 25.4 | 1.30× | | [Arcane Signet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/arcane-signet) | 1 in 40 | $18.00 | 5.0% | 22 | 25.4 | 0.87× | | [Counterspell (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/counterspell-v-1) | 1 in 40 | $16.30 | 4.5% | 20 | 25.4 | 0.79× | | [Oboro, Palace in the Clouds other](https://gambatracker.com/items/oboro-palace-in-the-clouds) | 1 in 33 | $10.00 | 3.3% | 33 | 30.5 | 1.08× | | [Shardless Agent other](https://gambatracker.com/items/shardless-agent) | 1 in 20 | $3.70 | 2.1% | 56 | 50.9 | 1.10× | | [Dark Ritual other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-ritual) | 1 in 20 | $3.50 | 1.9% | 48 | 50.9 | 0.94× | | [Lightning Bolt (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lightning-bolt-v-1) | 1 in 20 | $2.48 | 1.4% | 50 | 50.9 | 0.98× | | [Evolving Wilds (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/evolving-wilds-v-1) | 1 in 20 | $2.25 | 1.3% | 42 | 50.9 | 0.83× | | [Knight of Autumn other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knight-of-autumn) | 1 in 13 | $1.25 | 1.0% | 72 | 76.3 | 0.94× | | [Rampant Growth (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rampant-growth-v-2) | 1 in 13 | $1.04 | 0.9% | 81 | 76.3 | 1.06× | | [Swords to Plowshares other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swords-to-plowshares) | 1 in 13 | $0.49 | 0.4% | 76 | 76.3 | 1.00× | | [Arcane Signet (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/arcane-signet-v-1) | 1 in 13 | $0.44 | 0.4% | 71 | 76.3 | 0.93× | | [Art Series: Command Tower (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/art-series-command-tower-v-2) | 1 in 13 | $0.42 | 0.4% | 82 | 76.3 | 1.08× | | [Icy Manalith Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/icy-manalith-token) | 10.0% | $0.19 | 0.2% | 117 | 101.7 | 1.15× | | [Boros Guildgate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/boros-guildgate) | 10.0% | $0.18 | 0.2% | 103 | 101.7 | 1.01× | | [Opal Palace other](https://gambatracker.com/items/opal-palace) | 10.0% | $0.15 | 0.2% | 97 | 101.7 | 0.95× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=mystic-mana) [Art Series: Command Tower (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/art-series-command-tower-v-2) Hidden $10.04 $0.42 0.04x 2026-11-12 04:22 UTC [Knight of Autumn other](https://gambatracker.com/items/knight-of-autumn) [WILLOSTIRATO1](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/WILLOSTIRATO1) $10.04 $1.25 0.12x 2026-11-12 04:22 UTC [Dark Ritual other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dark-ritual) Hidden $10.04 $3.50 0.35x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [Swords to Plowshares other](https://gambatracker.com/items/swords-to-plowshares) Hidden $10.04 $0.49 0.05x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [Rampant Growth (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rampant-growth-v-2) Hidden $10.04 $1.04 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [Rampant Growth (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rampant-growth-v-2) Hidden $10.04 $1.04 0.10x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [Art Series: Command Tower (V.2) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/art-series-command-tower-v-2) Hidden $10.04 $0.42 0.04x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [Arcane Signet (V.1) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/arcane-signet-v-1) [JoshuaCR](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/JoshuaCR) $10.04 $0.44 0.04x 2026-11-12 03:56 UTC [Boros Guildgate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/boros-guildgate) Hidden $10.04 $0.18 0.02x 2026-11-12 03:50 UTC [Icy Manalith Token other](https://gambatracker.com/items/icy-manalith-token) Hidden $10.04 $0.19 0.02x 2026-11-12 03:50 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $10.04 | 89.43% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.43 on average: an expected loss of $10.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt