--- title: "Nerf or Nothin case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nerf or Nothin ($34.45) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 12 items with odds, observed 79.62% over 241 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin rendered: 2026-11-11T20:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Nerf or Nothin](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Nerf or Nothin A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin?window=all) Price · $34.45 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $30.83 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 79.62% · 241 openings, odds method Variance · 5.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 25 openings · below min 7 days · 82.98% ±31.48 223 openings 30 days · 79.62% ±30.28 241 openings since tracking started · 79.62% ±30.28 241 openings -0.5% 94.0% 188.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin?window=24h) | 25 | 94.05% ±94.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin?window=7d) | 223 | 82.98% ±31.5 | −0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin) | 241 | 79.62% ±30.3 | −0.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nerf-or-nothin?window=all) | 241 | 79.62% ±30.3 | −0.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 253 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [NERF Lmtd League of Legends Jinx Fishbones Dart Drum Dart Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-lmtd-league-of-legends-jinx-fishbones-dart-drum-dart-blaster) | 1 in 250 | $780 | 10.1% | 1 | 1.0 | 0.99× | | [NERF Aliens M41-A Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-aliens-m41-a-blaster) | 1 in 125 | $522 | 13.5% | 1 | 2.0 | 0.49× | | [NERF Halo Needler Light Up Dart-Firing Blaster Purple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-halo-needler-light-up-dart-firing-blaster-purple) | 1 in 100 | $435 | 14.1% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.79× | | [Nike KD 4 NERF (2024) US M 9.5 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-kd-4-nerf-2024-us-m-9-5) | 1 in 50 | $125 | 8.1% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.79× | | [Crocs Classic Clog NERF Blaster Dart US M 10 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-nerf-blaster-dart-us-m-10) | 1 in 50 | $120 | 7.8% | 5 | 5.1 | 0.99× | | [Travis Scott Cactus Jack Fortnite AR-Goosebumps Nerf Elite Dart Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/travis-scott-cactus-jack-fortnite-ar-goosebumps-nerf-elite-dart-blaster) | 1 in 33 | $99.00 | 9.6% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.32× | | [Supreme Nerf Rival Takedown Blaster Pink other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-nerf-rival-takedown-blaster-pink) | 1 in 29 | $82.00 | 9.3% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.68× | | [NERF N-Strike Elite Retaliator Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-n-strike-elite-retaliator-blaster) | 1 in 13 | $29.00 | 7.1% | 12 | 19.0 | 0.63× | | [Nerf Elite Digital Target Blue/Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-elite-digital-target-blue-orange) | 10.0% | $20.00 | 6.5% | 24 | 25.3 | 0.95× | | [Nerf N-Strike Elite Series Tactical Vest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-n-strike-elite-series-tactical-vest) | 12.5% | $14.00 | 5.7% | 46 | 31.6 | 1.45× | | [Nerf Zipfire Combat Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-zipfire-combat-blaster) | 20.0% | $7.00 | 4.5% | 51 | 50.6 | 1.01× | | [Nerf Vortex Aero Howler Foam Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-vortex-aero-howler-foam-ball) | 37.3% | $3.00 | 3.6% | 91 | 94.4 | 0.96× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [NERF Lmtd League of Legends Jinx Fishbones Dart Drum Dart Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-lmtd-league-of-legends-jinx-fishbones-dart-drum-dart-blaster) [jack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jack) $34.45 $780 22.64x 2026-11-09 02:58 UTC [NERF Aliens M41-A Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-aliens-m41-a-blaster) Hidden $34.45 $522 15.15x 2026-11-06 01:08 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nerf-or-nothin) [Nerf N-Strike Elite Series Tactical Vest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-n-strike-elite-series-tactical-vest) Hidden $34.45 $14.00 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Nerf Zipfire Combat Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-zipfire-combat-blaster) Hidden $34.45 $7.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Nerf N-Strike Elite Series Tactical Vest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-n-strike-elite-series-tactical-vest) Hidden $34.45 $14.00 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Nerf N-Strike Elite Series Tactical Vest other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-n-strike-elite-series-tactical-vest) Hidden $34.45 $14.00 0.41x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Nerf Vortex Aero Howler Foam Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-vortex-aero-howler-foam-ball) Hidden $34.45 $3.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Nerf Zipfire Combat Blaster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-zipfire-combat-blaster) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $34.45 $7.00 0.20x 2026-11-11 15:28 UTC [Nerf Elite Digital Target Blue/Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-elite-digital-target-blue-orange) Hidden $34.45 $20.00 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Nerf Vortex Aero Howler Foam Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-vortex-aero-howler-foam-ball) Hidden $34.45 $3.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Nerf Elite Digital Target Blue/Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-elite-digital-target-blue-orange) [rekack](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/rekack) $34.45 $20.00 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:18 UTC [Nerf Vortex Aero Howler Foam Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nerf-vortex-aero-howler-foam-ball) Hidden $34.45 $3.00 0.09x 2026-11-11 08:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.45 | 89.49% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $780 (22.64x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt