--- title: "Nezuko’s Keepsake case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Nezuko’s Keepsake ($15.41) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 18 items with odds, observed 86.53% over 542 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake rendered: 2026-11-11T21:06Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Nezuko’s Keepsake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Nezuko’s Keepsake A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake?window=all) Price · $15.41 Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $13.79 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.53% · 542 openings, odds method Variance · 12.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 41 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 69 openings · below min 7 days · 96.22% ±31.72 466 openings 30 days · 86.53% ±29.41 542 openings since tracking started · 86.53% ±29.41 542 openings 29.5% 112.8% 196.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake?window=24h) | 69 | 112.77% ±82.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake?window=7d) | 466 | 96.22% ±31.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake) | 542 | 86.53% ±29.4 | −0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nezukos-keepsake?window=all) | 542 | 86.53% ±29.4 | −0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 542 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Crocs Echo Clog Demon Slayer Tanjiro (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-echo-clog-demon-slayer-tanjiro-us-11) | 1 in 200 | $510 | 18.5% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× | | [Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba - Nezuko Kamado Harmonia Humming Doll other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-nezuko-kamado-harmonia-humming-doll) | 1 in 200 | $360 | 13.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× | | [Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Manga Box Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-manga-box-set) | 1 in 154 | $300 | 14.1% | 2 | 3.5 | 0.57× | | [Demon Slayer - Swordsmith Village Arc - Blu-ray - Limited Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-swordsmith-village-arc-blu-ray-limited-edition) | 1 in 125 | $170 | 9.9% | 5 | 4.3 | 1.15× | | [Demon Slayer Kimetsu no Yaiba Mugen Train Arc Limited Edition Blu-ray other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-mugen-train-arc-limited-edition-blu-ray) | 1 in 100 | $100 | 7.3% | 8 | 5.4 | 1.48× | | [Funko Pop! Animation Demon Slayer Muichiro Tokito 2022 Funkon Exclusive Figure #1193 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-demon-slayer-muichiro-tokito-2022-funkon-exclusive-figure-1193) | 1 in 100 | $93.00 | 6.7% | 3 | 5.4 | 0.55× | | [Bandai Proplica Demon Slayer Kimetsu no Yaiba Tanjiro Kamado Nichirin Sword other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bandai-proplica-demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-tanjiro-kamado-nichirin-sword) | 1 in 100 | $87.00 | 6.3% | 4 | 5.4 | 0.74× | | [Funko Pop! Animation: Demon Slayer Kimetsu no Yaiba - Nezuko Kamado other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-demon-slayer-kimetsu-no-yaiba-nezuko-kamado) | 1 in 80 | $40.00 | 3.6% | 8 | 6.8 | 1.18× | | [Demon Slayer - Tamagotchi Nano: Nezuko Exploding Blood! other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-tamagotchi-nano-nezuko-exploding-blood) | 1 in 50 | $25.00 | 3.6% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× | | [Demon Slayer Hashira Wall Tapestry other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-hashira-wall-tapestry) | 1 in 50 | $21.00 | 3.0% | 10 | 10.8 | 0.92× | | [Demon Slayer - Tanjiro Nezuko Bucket Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-tanjiro-nezuko-bucket-hat) | 1 in 50 | $21.00 | 3.0% | 8 | 10.8 | 0.74× | | [Funko Plush: Demon Slayer - Nezuko, 7"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-plush-demon-slayer-nezuko-7) | 1 in 33 | $15.00 | 3.3% | 8 | 16.3 | 0.49× | | [Demon Slayer Mixed Icons Knit 5-Pack Women's Ankle Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-mixed-icons-knit-5-pack-womens-ankle-socks) | 1 in 20 | $7.00 | 2.5% | 30 | 27.1 | 1.11× | | [Demon Slayer - Tanjiro's Mask Patch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-tanjiros-mask-patch) | 1 in 20 | $5.00 | 1.8% | 26 | 27.1 | 0.96× | | [Silver Tanjiro Earrings other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-tanjiro-earrings) | 1 in 20 | $3.60 | 1.3% | 20 | 27.1 | 0.74× | | [Trends International Demon Slayer: Mugen Train Wall Poster other](https://gambatracker.com/items/trends-international-demon-slayer-mugen-train-wall-poster) | 1 in 20 | $3.00 | 1.1% | 31 | 27.1 | 1.14× | | [Tanjiro Demon Slayer Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tanjiro-demon-slayer-keychain) | 1 in 20 | $2.00 | 0.7% | 32 | 27.1 | 1.18× | | [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) | 59.3% | $0.01 | 0.0% | 333 | 321.4 | 1.04× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Crocs Echo Clog Demon Slayer Tanjiro (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-echo-clog-demon-slayer-tanjiro-us-11) Hidden $15.41 $510 33.10x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Crocs Echo Clog Demon Slayer Tanjiro (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-echo-clog-demon-slayer-tanjiro-us-11) Hidden $15.41 $510 33.10x 2026-11-09 05:37 UTC [Crocs Echo Clog Demon Slayer Tanjiro (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-echo-clog-demon-slayer-tanjiro-us-11) Hidden $15.41 $510 33.10x 2026-11-06 18:33 UTC [Crocs Echo Clog Demon Slayer Tanjiro (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-echo-clog-demon-slayer-tanjiro-us-11) Hidden $15.41 $510 33.10x 2026-11-05 00:47 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nezukos-keepsake) [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $15.41 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Tanjiro Demon Slayer Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tanjiro-demon-slayer-keychain) Hidden $15.41 $2.00 0.13x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $15.41 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Crocs Echo Clog Demon Slayer Tanjiro (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-echo-clog-demon-slayer-tanjiro-us-11) Hidden $15.41 $510 33.10x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Demon Slayer - Tamagotchi Nano: Nezuko Exploding Blood! other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-tamagotchi-nano-nezuko-exploding-blood) Hidden $15.41 $25.00 1.62x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Demon Slayer Hashira Wall Tapestry other](https://gambatracker.com/items/demon-slayer-hashira-wall-tapestry) [ave](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/ave) $15.41 $21.00 1.36x 2026-11-11 21:02 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $15.41 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $15.41 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $15.41 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC [Quote Rengoku - Demon Slayer Sticker other](https://gambatracker.com/items/quote-rengoku-demon-slayer-sticker) Hidden $15.41 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:35 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.41 | 89.46% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $510 (33.10x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt