--- title: "NFL case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "NFL ($4.87) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.37% from 12 items with odds, observed 92.08% over 1,874 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl rendered: 2026-11-11T13:40Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [NFL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · NFL A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl?window=all) Price · $4.87 Advertised RTP · 89.37% · EV $4.35 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 92.08% · 1,874 openings, odds method Variance · 22.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 44 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 92.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 154 openings · below min 7 days · 86.66% ±24.23 1,470 openings 30 days · 92.08% ±21.46 1,874 openings since tracking started · 92.08% ±21.46 1,874 openings -0.5% 72.5% 145.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl?window=24h) | 154 | 70.07% ±74.9 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl?window=7d) | 1,470 | 86.66% ±24.2 | −0.2σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl) | 1,874 | 92.08% ±21.5 | +0.2σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nfl?window=all) | 1,874 | 92.08% ±21.5 | +0.2σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,874 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) | 1 in 200 | $300 | 34.5% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× | | [NFL Mini Metallic Hover Helmet - KC other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nfl-mini-metallic-hover-helmet-kc) | 1 in 133 | $65.00 | 11.2% | 23 | 14.1 | 1.64× | | [Riddell 32 Piece NFL Helmet Tracker Set - Gumball Size Helmets - All NFL Current Logo's - New 2023 Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/riddell-32-piece-nfl-helmet-tracker-set-gumball-size-helmets-all-nfl-current-logos-new-2023-set) | 1 in 100 | $50.00 | 11.5% | 27 | 18.7 | 1.44× | | [Madden NFL 25 - Xbox Series X other](https://gambatracker.com/items/madden-nfl-25-xbox-series-x) | 1 in 133 | $46.00 | 7.9% | 15 | 14.1 | 1.07× | | [Buffalo Bills 30oz Insulated Stainless Steel Travel Mug Tumbler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/buffalo-bills-30oz-insulated-stainless-steel-travel-mug-tumbler) | 1 in 100 | $34.00 | 7.8% | 15 | 18.7 | 0.80× | | [WILSON NFL Super Grip Composite Football other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wilson-nfl-super-grip-composite-football) | 1 in 100 | $30.00 | 6.9% | 17 | 18.7 | 0.91× | | [Packers Tabletop Stackers Block Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/packers-tabletop-stackers-block-game) | 1 in 100 | $24.00 | 5.5% | 25 | 18.7 | 1.33× | | [UNO NFL Card Game for Kids & Adults other](https://gambatracker.com/items/uno-nfl-card-game-for-kids-and-adults) | 1 in 100 | $13.00 | 3.0% | 20 | 18.7 | 1.07× | | [Dolphins Franklin Sports NFL Team Wristbands other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dolphins-franklin-sports-nfl-team-wristbands) | 1 in 100 | $9.00 | 2.1% | 14 | 18.7 | 0.75× | | [Las Vegas Raiders Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/las-vegas-raiders-keychain) | 1 in 20 | $3.00 | 3.4% | 89 | 93.7 | 0.95× | | [Dallas Cowboys Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dallas-cowboys-keychain) | 1 in 14 | $1.00 | 1.6% | 120 | 131.2 | 0.91× | | [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) | 80.0% | $0.25 | 4.6% | 1,502 | 1499.2 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) Hidden $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-09 21:08 UTC [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) Hidden $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-07 22:25 UTC [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) Hidden $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-05 11:31 UTC [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) [jesse42](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jesse42) $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-04 17:50 UTC [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) Hidden $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-03 19:40 UTC [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) Hidden $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-03 10:25 UTC [Mike Evans Tampa Bay Buccaneers Signed Riddell Lunar Eclipse Speed Mini Helmet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mike-evans-tampa-bay-buccaneers-signed-riddell-lunar-eclipse-speed-mini-helmet) Hidden $4.87 $300 61.60x 2026-11-03 06:45 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nfl) [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Dallas Cowboys Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dallas-cowboys-keychain) Hidden $4.87 $1.00 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Dallas Cowboys Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dallas-cowboys-keychain) Hidden $4.87 $1.00 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Dallas Cowboys Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dallas-cowboys-keychain) [jesse42](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/jesse42) $4.87 $1.00 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [Turf other](https://gambatracker.com/items/turf) Hidden $4.87 $0.25 0.05x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.87 | 89.37% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $300 (61.60x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.37 on average: an expected loss of $10.63 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt