---
title: "Nike vs Adidas case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Nike vs Adidas ($236.10) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 27 items with odds, observed 81.63% over 23 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas
rendered: 2026-11-12T04:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Nike vs Adidas](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Nike vs Adidas

A box on Cases.gg (Shoes), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas?window=all)

Price · $236.10

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $211.30 from 27 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.63% · 23 openings, odds method

Variance · 8.4× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 89.9% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 20 openings · below min

30 days · 23 openings · below min

since tracking started · 23 openings · below min

-0.5% 107.5% 215.5%

**Small sample.** 23 openings and 1.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas?window=7d) | 20 | 87.46% ±127.2 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas) | 23 | 81.63% ±118.6 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nike-vs-adidas?window=all) | 23 | 81.63% ±118.6 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 27 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 23 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White ComplexCon (AF100) (US 9.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-complexcon-af100-us-9-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.5K | 7.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low Day of the Dead (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-day-of-the-dead-us-8) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,599 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Gucci x adidas Nylon Down Jacket Yellow (EU 52) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-x-adidas-nylon-down-jacket-yellow-eu-52) | 1 in 500 | $5,885 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 Moonrock (US 12.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-moonrock-us-12-5) | 1 in 500 | $3,465 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [adidas Kerwin Frost YTI Track Pants Athletic Blue (XXL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-kerwin-frost-yti-track-pants-athletic-blue-xxl) | 1 in 333 | $2,079 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Presto Off-White (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-presto-off-white-us-8) | 1 in 500 | $2,040 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [adidas for Prada Re-Nylon Hooded Track Jacket Black (EU 44) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-for-prada-re-nylon-hooded-track-jacket-black-eu-44) | 1 in 333 | $1,969 | 2.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low Off-White Brooklyn (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-off-white-brooklyn-us-9) | 1 in 333 | $1,840 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-13) | 1 in 250 | $1,652 | 3.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [Supreme Nike Leather Duffle Bag Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-nike-leather-duffle-bag-red) | 1 in 200 | $1,132 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low StrangeLove Skateboards (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-strangelove-skateboards-us-7) | 1 in 250 | $1,080 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (US Men's 13.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-13-5) | 1 in 250 | $1,075 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike Air Max 90 Off-White Desert Ore (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-max-90-off-white-desert-ore-us-11) | 1 in 200 | $999 | 2.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk LowSupreme Stars Mean Green (2021) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-lowsupreme-stars-mean-green-2021-us-10) | 1 in 200 | $986 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350Turtledove (2022) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350turtledove-2022-us-10) | 1 in 167 | $740 | 2.1% | 1 | 0.1 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Core Black White (2016/2022) (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2core-black-white-2016-2022-us-8) | 1 in 133 | $615 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low What The Paul (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-what-the-paul-us-8) | 1 in 133 | $583 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Gucci x Adidas T-Shirt White/Red (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-x-adidas-t-shirt-white-red-us-m) | 1 in 167 | $570 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low Concepts Orange Lobster (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-concepts-orange-lobster-us-8) | 1 in 125 | $530 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nike Dunk Low SP City Market (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-sp-city-market-us-9) | 1 in 125 | $440 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Yellow (US Men's 5.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-yellow-us-mens-5-5) | 1 in 167 | $435 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Nike SB Dunk Low Green Apple (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-sb-dunk-low-green-apple-us-7) | 1 in 125 | $390 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Boost 350 V2Carbon Beluga (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350-v2carbon-beluga-us-7) | 1 in 111 | $185 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Foam RNNR Sand (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnnr-sand-us-10) | 1 in 111 | $150 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-us-12) | 25.0% | $125 | 14.8% | 7 | 5.8 | 1.22× |
| [Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White Black Pebbled Leather (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-white-black-pebbled-leather-us-10) | 25.0% | $89.00 | 10.5% | 6 | 5.8 | 1.04× |
| [adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) | 38.1% | $79.00 | 14.2% | 8 | 8.8 | 0.91× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 12 Nov, 03:04 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-13) Hidden $236 $1,652 7.00x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Boost 350Turtledove (2022) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350turtledove-2022-us-10) Hidden $236 $740 3.13x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nike-vs-adidas)

[adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) Hidden $236 $79.00 0.33x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Boost 350Turtledove (2022) (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-boost-350turtledove-2022-us-10) Hidden $236 $740 3.13x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-us-12) Hidden $236 $125 0.53x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White Black Pebbled Leather (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-white-black-pebbled-leather-us-10) Hidden $236 $89.00 0.38x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-13) Hidden $236 $1,652 7.00x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) [Nie](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Nie) $236 $79.00 0.33x 2026-11-10 07:08 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-us-12) Hidden $236 $125 0.53x 2026-11-06 09:37 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-us-12) [Henzair](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Henzair) $236 $125 0.53x 2026-11-06 09:37 UTC

[adidas Yeezy Foam RNR Onyx (US 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-yeezy-foam-rnr-onyx-us-12) Hidden $236 $125 0.53x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC

[Nike Air Force 1 Low '07 White Black Pebbled Leather (US 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-07-white-black-pebbled-leather-us-10) Hidden $236 $89.00 0.38x 2026-11-05 06:21 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $236 | 89.50% | 27 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $1,652 (7.00x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt