--- title: "Nintendo case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nintendo ($66.76) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 49.78% over 130 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop rendered: 2026-11-11T21:32Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Nintendo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Nintendo A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop?window=all) Price · $66.76 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $59.75 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 49.78% · 130 openings, odds method Variance · 31.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 50 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 85.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 124 openings · below min 30 days · 130 openings · below min since tracking started · 130 openings · below min -0.5% 247.8% 496.0% **Small sample.** 130 openings and 2.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop?window=24h) | 6 | 45.31% ±450.0 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop?window=7d) | 124 | 51.16% ±99.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop) | 130 | 49.78% ±96.7 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nintendo-shop?window=all) | 130 | 49.78% ±96.7 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 130 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Nintendo Switch Super Smash Bros. Ultimate Edition Console HACSKAELE other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-super-smash-bros-ultimate-edition-console-hacskaele) | 1 in 200 | $5,280 | 44.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Nintendo Switch Lite Pokemon Dialga & Palkia Edition (US Plug) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-pokemon-dialga-and-palkia-edition-us-plug) | 1 in 200 | $400 | 3.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Nintendo Switch Lite - Blue other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-blue) | 1 in 100 | $285 | 4.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [Gamecube System Console Indigo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamecube-system-console-indigo) | 1 in 100 | $264 | 4.4% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.54× | | [Nintendo Wii Console with Wii Sports other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-wii-console-with-wii-sports) | 1 in 100 | $190 | 3.2% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Nintendo Switch/Lite Pokemon Brilliant Diamond & Shining Pearl Twin Pack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-pokemon-brilliant-diamond-and-shining-pearl-twin-pack) | 1 in 100 | $185 | 3.1% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Nintendo Game Boy Advance SP - Onyx other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-game-boy-advance-sp-onyx) | 1 in 100 | $180 | 3.0% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [Nintendo Switch/Lite Super Mario 3D All-Stars Video Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-super-mario-3d-all-stars-video-game) | 1 in 100 | $179 | 3.0% | 4 | 1.3 | 3.08× | | [Nintendo 64 System - Video Game Console (Renewed) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-64-system-video-game-console-renewed) | 1 in 100 | $165 | 2.8% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.77× | | [Nintendo DS Lite Crimson / Black (refurbished) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-ds-lite-crimson-black-refurbished) | 1 in 50 | $140 | 4.7% | 4 | 2.6 | 1.54× | | [Game Boy Color - Atomic Purple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/game-boy-color-atomic-purple) | 1 in 100 | $126 | 2.1% | 3 | 1.3 | 2.31× | | [Joy-Con (L)/(R) - Pastel Purple/Pastel Green other](https://gambatracker.com/items/joy-con-l-r-pastel-purple-pastel-green) | 1 in 50 | $87.99 | 2.9% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [Pokemon Brilliant Diamond - Nintendo Switch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-brilliant-diamond-nintendo-switch) | 1 in 50 | $69.00 | 2.3% | 6 | 2.6 | 2.31× | | [Game & Watch: Super Mario Bros (Nintendo) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/game-and-watch-super-mario-bros-nintendo) | 1 in 50 | $64.00 | 2.1% | 1 | 2.6 | 0.38× | | [Minecraft Dungeons Ultimate Edition - Nintendo Switch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-dungeons-ultimate-edition-nintendo-switch) | 1 in 20 | $60.00 | 5.0% | 6 | 6.5 | 0.92× | | [Minecraft: Switch Edition - Nintendo Switch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/minecraft-switch-edition-nintendo-switch) | 10.0% | $32.99 | 5.5% | 11 | 13.0 | 0.85× | | [3 Pack Super Mario Merchandise Crew Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pack-super-mario-merchandise-crew-socks) | 10.0% | $18.00 | 3.0% | 10 | 13.0 | 0.77× | | [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) | 58.0% | $0.50 | 0.5% | 79 | 75.4 | 1.05× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nintendo-shop) [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [Nintendo Switch/Lite Super Mario 3D All-Stars Video Game other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nintendo-switch-lite-super-mario-3d-all-stars-video-game) Hidden $66.76 $179 2.68x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-11 08:52 UTC [3 Pack Super Mario Merchandise Crew Socks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pack-super-mario-merchandise-crew-socks) Hidden $66.76 $18.00 0.27x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC [Gamecube System Console Indigo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gamecube-system-console-indigo) Hidden $66.76 $264 3.95x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC [Item Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/item-box) Hidden $66.76 $0.50 0.01x 2026-11-10 06:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $66.76 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt