---
title: "NMD Collector case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "NMD Collector ($82.58) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 32 items with odds, observed 43.81% over 572 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:59Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [NMD Collector](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · NMD Collector

A box on Cases.gg (Shoes), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector?window=all)

Price · $82.58

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $73.91 from 32 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 43.81% · 572 openings, odds method

Variance · 95.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 333 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 97.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 6 openings · below min

7 days · 482 openings · below min

30 days · 572 openings · below min

since tracking started · 572 openings · below min

-0.5% 394.3% 789.0%

**Small sample.** 572 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector?window=24h) | 6 | 8.48% ±780.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector?window=7d) | 482 | 41.30% ±87.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector) | 572 | 43.81% ±79.9 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nmd-collector?window=all) | 572 | 43.81% ±79.9 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 32 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 572 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x Chanel (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-chanel-us-mens-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $16.8K | 22.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD\_Rimowa Backpack Aluminium Tech Beige/Night Cargo/Active Orange other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-rimowa-backpack-aluminium-tech-beige-night-cargo-active-orange) | 1 in 1,000 | $15.2K | 20.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x Chanel (US Men's 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-chanel-us-mens-7) | 1 in 1,000 | $9,350 | 12.7% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x BBC Cotton Candy (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-bbc-cotton-candy-us-mens-11-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $4,890 | 6.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Yellow (US Men's 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-yellow-us-mens-13) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,673 | 3.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-12) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,540 | 3.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x BBC Cotton Candy (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-bbc-cotton-candy-us-mens-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $2,160 | 2.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD Hu Pharrell Inspiration Pack Green (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-inspiration-pack-green-us-mens-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,490 | 2.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (US Men's 6) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-6) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,052 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD XR1 Mastermind (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-mastermind-us-mens-10-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $917 | 1.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $820 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $780 | 1.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD XR1 size? Henry Poole (US Men's 10) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-size-henry-poole-us-mens-10) | 1 in 1,000 | $720 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD XR1 Mastermind (US Men's 6) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-mastermind-us-mens-6) | 1 in 1,000 | $665 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 V2 Pulse Aqua (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-pulse-aqua-us-mens-11-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $660 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Adidas NMD S1 Edition 1 (US Men's 5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-s1-edition-1-us-mens-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $636 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 V2 Crackled Black Red (US Men's 7.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-crackled-black-red-us-mens-7-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $636 | 0.9% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Adidas NMD S1 Edition 1 (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-s1-edition-1-us-mens-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $556 | 0.8% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Tri Color Stripes Black (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-tri-color-stripes-black-us-mens-10-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $510 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 V2 Pulse Aqua (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-pulse-aqua-us-mens-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $481 | 0.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Yellow (US Men's 5.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-yellow-us-mens-5-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $435 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD XR1 size? Henry Poole (US Men's 6.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-size-henry-poole-us-mens-6-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $430 | 0.6% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-12) | 1 in 1,000 | $388 | 0.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-11-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $360 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Tri Color Stripes Black (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-tri-color-stripes-black-us-mens-4-5) | 1 in 1,000 | $360 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD C1 Trail Core Black (US Men's 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-c1-trail-core-black-us-mens-9) | 1 in 1,000 | $290 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Core Black Energy Pink (US Men's 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-core-black-energy-pink-us-mens-7) | 1 in 1,000 | $288 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD Hu Pharrell Inspiration Pack Green (US Men's 4) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-inspiration-pack-green-us-mens-4) | 1 in 1,000 | $210 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R1 Core Black Energy Pink (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-core-black-energy-pink-us-mens-11) | 1 in 1,000 | $89.00 | 0.1% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [adidas NMD R2 Black White (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r2-black-white-us-mens-4-5) | 1 in 200 | $79.00 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.70× |
| [adidas NMD R1 Trail Guardians of the Galaxy Groot (US Men's 4.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-trail-guardians-of-the-galaxy-groot-us-mens-4-5) | 1 in 200 | $72.00 | 0.5% | 3 | 2.9 | 1.05× |
| [3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) | 96.1% | $7.00 | 9.1% | 553 | 549.7 | 1.01× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[adidas Human Race NMD Pharrell x BBC Cotton Candy (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-human-race-nmd-pharrell-x-bbc-cotton-candy-us-mens-11-5) Hidden $82.58 $4,890 59.22x 2026-11-09 22:23 UTC

[adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Yellow (US Men's 13) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-yellow-us-mens-13) Hidden $82.58 $2,673 32.37x 2026-11-03 16:41 UTC

[adidas NMD R1 Bape Olive Camo (US Men's 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-bape-olive-camo-us-mens-12) [Oliveira16](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Oliveira16) $82.58 $2,540 30.76x 2026-11-07 17:08 UTC

[adidas NMD XR1 Mastermind (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-xr1-mastermind-us-mens-10-5) Hidden $82.58 $917 11.10x 2026-11-09 22:23 UTC

[adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-5) Hidden $82.58 $820 9.93x 2026-11-03 16:40 UTC

[adidas NMD HU Pharrell Human Race Scarlet (US Men's 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-hu-pharrell-human-race-scarlet-us-mens-11) Hidden $82.58 $780 9.45x 2026-11-07 11:43 UTC

[adidas NMD R1 V2 Pulse Aqua (US Men's 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-pulse-aqua-us-mens-11-5) Hidden $82.58 $660 7.99x 2026-11-07 17:08 UTC

[Adidas NMD S1 Edition 1 (US Men's 5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-s1-edition-1-us-mens-5) Hidden $82.58 $636 7.70x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC

[adidas NMD R1 V2 Crackled Black Red (US Men's 7.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-v2-crackled-black-red-us-mens-7-5) Hidden $82.58 $636 7.70x 2026-11-07 17:08 UTC

[adidas NMD R1 Tri Color Stripes Black (US Men's 10.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-r1-tri-color-stripes-black-us-mens-10-5) Hidden $82.58 $510 6.18x 2026-11-07 17:00 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nmd-collector)

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-11 08:58 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC

[Adidas NMD S1 Edition 1 (US Men's 5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-nmd-s1-edition-1-us-mens-5) Hidden $82.58 $636 7.70x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC

[3 Pair Flat Shoe laces other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3-pair-flat-shoe-laces) Hidden $82.58 $7.00 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:02 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $82.58 | 89.50% | 32 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $4,890 (59.22x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt