--- title: "No Cap case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "No Cap ($98.97) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 88.04% over 108 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap rendered: 2026-11-11T14:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [No Cap](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · No Cap A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap?window=all) Price · $98.97 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $88.57 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 88.04% · 108 openings, odds method Variance · 4.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 15 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 82.3% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 88.04% ±38.29 108 openings 30 days · 88.04% ±38.29 108 openings since tracking started · 88.04% ±38.29 108 openings 39.0% 97.2% 155.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap?window=24h) | 48 | 97.16% ±57.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap?window=7d) | 108 | 88.04% ±38.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap) | 108 | 88.04% ±38.3 | −0.1σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/no-cap?window=all) | 108 | 88.04% ±38.3 | −0.1σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Louis Vuitton MNG Essential Cap Blue (Size 60) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-mng-essential-cap-blue-size-60) | 1 in 200 | $1,650 | 9.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Dior x Stone Island Baseball Cap Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-x-stone-island-baseball-cap-black-us-m) | 1 in 200 | $1,170 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Dior x CACTUS JACK Cashmere Knit Beanie Violet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-x-cactus-jack-cashmere-knit-beanie-violet) | 1 in 133 | $984 | 8.3% | 1 | 0.8 | — | | [Balenciaga x NASA Baseball Cap Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-nasa-baseball-cap-black-us-l) | 1 in 100 | $713 | 8.1% | 3 | 1.1 | 2.78× | | [Burberry Horseferry Embroidered-Logo Baseball Cap Black (US S) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burberry-horseferry-embroidered-logo-baseball-cap-black-us-s) | 1 in 80 | $480 | 6.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× | | [Canada Goose Black Canada Goose Logo Wool Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/canada-goose-black-canada-goose-logo-wool-beanie) | 1 in 80 | $430 | 6.1% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Burberry Vintage Check Baseball Cap Beige (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burberry-vintage-check-baseball-cap-beige-us-m) | 1 in 80 | $410 | 5.8% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× | | [Supreme Jerseys Box Logo New Era Fitted Hat Pink (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-jerseys-box-logo-new-era-fitted-hat-pink-us-8) | 1 in 40 | $340 | 9.6% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× | | [Palace Cordura Dog Ear 6-Panel Realtree APX other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-cordura-dog-ear-6-panel-realtree-apx) | 1 in 50 | $305 | 6.9% | 2 | 2.2 | 0.93× | | [Gallery Dept. French Logo Trucker Hat Flo Purple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gallery-dept-french-logo-trucker-hat-flo-purple) | 1 in 50 | $225 | 5.1% | 1 | 2.2 | 0.46× | | [Palace Yeti Beanie Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-yeti-beanie-black) | 1 in 44 | $199 | 5.1% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.41× | | [Palace Furry Ears Nein Cuff Beanie Leopard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palace-furry-ears-nein-cuff-beanie-leopard) | 1 in 40 | $190 | 5.4% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× | | [Supreme Coated Denim Camp Cap Red other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-coated-denim-camp-cap-red) | 1 in 25 | $92.00 | 4.2% | 2 | 4.3 | 0.46× | | [Venum Standard Baseball Hat Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/venum-standard-baseball-hat-black) | 1 in 13 | $36.00 | 3.0% | 11 | 8.1 | 1.36× | | [Long Brim Fishing Cap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/long-brim-fishing-cap) | 10.3% | $26.00 | 3.0% | 12 | 11.1 | 1.08× | | [Hard Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hard-hat) | 12.5% | $16.00 | 2.3% | 10 | 13.5 | 0.74× | | [Sony Playstation Embroidered Logo Patch Gaming Icons Youth Flat Bill Hat Multicolored other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sony-playstation-embroidered-logo-patch-gaming-icons-youth-flat-bill-hat-multicolored) | 15.0% | $12.95 | 2.2% | 13 | 16.2 | 0.80× | | [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) | 33.0% | $6.50 | 2.4% | 42 | 35.6 | 1.18× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Dior x CACTUS JACK Cashmere Knit Beanie Violet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-x-cactus-jack-cashmere-knit-beanie-violet) Hidden $98.97 $984 9.94x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [Balenciaga x NASA Baseball Cap Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-nasa-baseball-cap-black-us-l) Hidden $98.97 $713 7.20x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Balenciaga x NASA Baseball Cap Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-nasa-baseball-cap-black-us-l) Hidden $98.97 $713 7.20x 2026-11-10 23:54 UTC [Balenciaga x NASA Baseball Cap Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-nasa-baseball-cap-black-us-l) Hidden $98.97 $713 7.20x 2026-11-06 07:54 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=no-cap) [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Venum Standard Baseball Hat Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/venum-standard-baseball-hat-black) Hidden $98.97 $36.00 0.36x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) [Ncthcfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Ncthcfoodie%20code%20DGN) $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Jordan Beanie other](https://gambatracker.com/items/jordan-beanie) Hidden $98.97 $6.50 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC [Long Brim Fishing Cap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/long-brim-fishing-cap) Hidden $98.97 $26.00 0.26x 2026-11-11 05:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $98.97 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $984 (9.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt