--- title: "Nocturnal case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Nocturnal ($890.26) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 18 items with odds, observed 21.77% over 9 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal rendered: 2026-11-11T19:21Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Nocturnal](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Nocturnal A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal?window=all) Price · $890.26 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $796.78 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 21.77% · 9 openings, odds method Variance · 6.1× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 16 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 87.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 6 openings · below min 30 days · 9 openings · below min since tracking started · 9 openings · below min -0.5% 110.8% 222.0% **Small sample.** 9 openings and 0.6 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal?window=24h) | 6 | 23.72% ±197.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal?window=7d) | 6 | 23.72% ±197.4 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal) | 9 | 21.77% ±161.2 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/nocturnal?window=all) | 9 | 21.77% ±161.2 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh Black (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-low-by-virgil-abloh-black-us-9) | 1 in 400 | $31.2K | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Hermes Evelyne Amazone Clemence Gold 16 Mini/TPM Noir other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-evelyne-amazone-clemence-gold-16-mini-tpm-noir) | 1 in 250 | $10K | 5.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [KAWS Star Wars Darth Vader Companion with Cape Vinyl Figure Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-star-wars-darth-vader-companion-with-cape-vinyl-figure-black) | 1 in 133 | $8,800 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Saint Laurent Denim-Style Lambskin Leather Jacket Black (EU 48) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saint-laurent-denim-style-lambskin-leather-jacket-black-eu-48) | 1 in 100 | $6,599 | 8.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Dior and RIMOWA Cabin Suitcase Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-and-rimowa-cabin-suitcase-black) | 1 in 100 | $6,355 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Sur-Ron X other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sur-ron-x) | 1 in 67 | $4,840 | 9.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Tudor Black Bay Ceramic 41mm M79210CNU-0001Black Dial Leather/Rubber Strap other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tudor-black-bay-ceramic-41mm-m79210cnu-0001black-dial-leather-rubber-strap) | 1 in 67 | $4,609 | 8.7% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Dior And Shawn Wallet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-and-shawn-wallet) | 1 in 33 | $3,120 | 11.7% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [Balenciaga x Crocs Hardcrocs Sandal Black US M 7 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/balenciaga-x-crocs-hardcrocs-sandal-black-us-m-7) | 1 in 33 | $2,600 | 9.8% | 0 | 0.3 | — | | [GoPro HERO11 Black Mini other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gopro-hero11-black-mini) | 1 in 20 | $310 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Logitech G604 LIGHTSPEED Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g604-lightspeed-gaming-mouse) | 1 in 20 | $290 | 1.8% | 1 | 0.5 | — | | [WD 4TB My Passport, Portable External Hard Drive, Black, backup software with defense against ransomware, and password protection other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wd-4tb-my-passport-portable-external-hard-drive-black-backup-software-with-defense-against-ransomware-and-password-protection) | 20.0% | $250 | 6.3% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.22× | | [Off-White Bookish Classic Knit Beanie Black/White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-bookish-classic-knit-beanie-black-white) | 1 in 20 | $248 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Palm Angels Teddy Bear T-shirt Black (US XS) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/palm-angels-teddy-bear-t-shirt-black-us-xs) | 1 in 20 | $245 | 1.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Nike Air Force 1 Low Supreme Black (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-low-supreme-black-us-9) | 1 in 20 | $225 | 1.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [Ray-Ban Daddy-O II Sunglasses Black/Green (RB2016) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ray-ban-daddy-o-ii-sunglasses-black-green-rb2016) | 1 in 13 | $220 | 2.1% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Supreme Waist Bag (SS24) Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-waist-bag-ss24-black) | 10.1% | $130 | 1.6% | 2 | 0.9 | — | | [KAWS x Uniqlo x Peanuts Snoopy Plush (Medium)Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-x-uniqlo-x-peanuts-snoopy-plush-medium-black) | 25.0% | $97.00 | 3.0% | 2 | 2.3 | 0.89× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=nocturnal) [Supreme Waist Bag (SS24) Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-waist-bag-ss24-black) Hidden $890 $130 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [WD 4TB My Passport, Portable External Hard Drive, Black, backup software with defense against ransomware, and password protection other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wd-4tb-my-passport-portable-external-hard-drive-black-backup-software-with-defense-against-ransomware-and-password-protection) Hidden $890 $250 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [KAWS x Uniqlo x Peanuts Snoopy Plush (Medium)Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-x-uniqlo-x-peanuts-snoopy-plush-medium-black) Hidden $890 $97.00 0.11x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [WD 4TB My Passport, Portable External Hard Drive, Black, backup software with defense against ransomware, and password protection other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wd-4tb-my-passport-portable-external-hard-drive-black-backup-software-with-defense-against-ransomware-and-password-protection) Hidden $890 $250 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [WD 4TB My Passport, Portable External Hard Drive, Black, backup software with defense against ransomware, and password protection other](https://gambatracker.com/items/wd-4tb-my-passport-portable-external-hard-drive-black-backup-software-with-defense-against-ransomware-and-password-protection) Hidden $890 $250 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC [Logitech G604 LIGHTSPEED Gaming Mouse other](https://gambatracker.com/items/logitech-g604-lightspeed-gaming-mouse) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $890 $290 0.33x 2026-11-11 15:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $890 | 89.50% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt