--- title: "Noir Case case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Noir Case ($274.96) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 14 items with odds, observed 104.96% over 270 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case rendered: 2026-11-11T13:43Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Noir Case](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Noir Case A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case?window=all) Price · $274.96 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $246.09 from 14 items Observed RTP, 30d · 104.96% · 270 openings, odds method Variance · 110.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 125 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 240 openings · below min 30 days · 270 openings · below min since tracking started · 270 openings · below min -0.5% 423.8% 848.0% **Small sample.** 270 openings and 2.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case?window=24h) | 6 | 4.73% ±842.7 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case?window=7d) | 240 | 115.90% ±133.2 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case) | 270 | 104.96% ±125.6 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/noir-case?window=all) | 270 | 104.96% ±125.6 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 14 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 270 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2022 Mercedes-Benz S 580 BRABUS other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2022-mercedes-benz-s-580-brabus) | 1 in 10,000 | $240K | 9.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — | | [Rolex Yacht-Master 42 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-yacht-master-42) | 1 in 2,500 | $36.3K | 5.9% | 1 | 0.1 | — | | [Louis Vuitton Nike Air Force 1 Low By Virgil Abloh Black (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-nike-air-force-1-low-by-virgil-abloh-black-us-9) | 1 in 2,000 | $31.2K | 6.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [Rolex Submariner Date 40mm 126613LN Black Dial Two Tone Yellow Gold Black Ceramic Bezel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date-40mm-126613ln-black-dial-two-tone-yellow-gold-black-ceramic-bezel) | 1 in 1,000 | $20.5K | 8.3% | 1 | 0.3 | — | | [Rolex GMT-Master II 40mm 126710BLNR Batman Ceramic Bezel Oyster Steel Bracelet other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-gmt-master-ii-40mm-126710blnr-batman-ceramic-bezel-oyster-steel-bracelet) | 1 in 667 | $17.5K | 10.7% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Hermes Evelyne Amazone Clemence Gold 16 Mini/TPM Noir other](https://gambatracker.com/items/hermes-evelyne-amazone-clemence-gold-16-mini-tpm-noir) | 1 in 500 | $10K | 8.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — | | [KAWS Star Wars Darth Vader Companion with Cape Vinyl Figure Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kaws-star-wars-darth-vader-companion-with-cape-vinyl-figure-black) | 1 in 400 | $8,800 | 8.9% | 0 | 0.7 | — | | [Saint Laurent Denim-Style Lambskin Leather Jacket Black (EU 48) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saint-laurent-denim-style-lambskin-leather-jacket-black-eu-48) | 1 in 333 | $6,599 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Dior x RIMOWA 4-Wheel Cabin Suitcase Aluminium Dior Oblique Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-x-rimowa-4-wheel-cabin-suitcase-aluminium-dior-oblique-black) | 1 in 200 | $5,500 | 11.2% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Chrome Hearts Horse Shoe Floral Hoodie US XXL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chrome-hearts-horse-shoe-floral-hoodie-us-xxl) | 1 in 200 | $3,840 | 7.8% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Short-Sleeved Cotton Shirt Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/short-sleeved-cotton-shirt-black) | 1 in 200 | $2,268 | 4.6% | 1 | 1.4 | 0.74× | | [Saint Laurent 50s Signature Hoodie Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saint-laurent-50s-signature-hoodie-black-us-m) | 1 in 200 | $1,500 | 3.0% | 2 | 1.4 | 1.48× | | [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-black-us-xl) | 1 in 200 | $1,060 | 2.2% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.22× | | [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) | 96.4% | $13.00 | 5.1% | 260 | 260.3 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 08:49 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Rolex Yacht-Master 42 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-yacht-master-42) Hidden $275 $36.3K 131.8x 2026-11-06 06:22 UTC [Rolex Submariner Date 40mm 126613LN Black Dial Two Tone Yellow Gold Black Ceramic Bezel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rolex-submariner-date-40mm-126613ln-black-dial-two-tone-yellow-gold-black-ceramic-bezel) [Elon musk](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Elon%20musk) $275 $20.5K 74.56x 2026-11-06 12:26 UTC [Dior x RIMOWA 4-Wheel Cabin Suitcase Aluminium Dior Oblique Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-x-rimowa-4-wheel-cabin-suitcase-aluminium-dior-oblique-black) Hidden $275 $5,500 20.00x 2026-11-07 14:18 UTC [Chrome Hearts Horse Shoe Floral Hoodie US XXL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chrome-hearts-horse-shoe-floral-hoodie-us-xxl) Hidden $275 $3,840 13.97x 2026-11-07 14:12 UTC [Short-Sleeved Cotton Shirt Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/short-sleeved-cotton-shirt-black) Hidden $275 $2,268 8.25x 2026-11-06 07:43 UTC [Saint Laurent 50s Signature Hoodie Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saint-laurent-50s-signature-hoodie-black-us-m) Hidden $275 $1,500 5.46x 2026-11-09 17:13 UTC [Saint Laurent 50s Signature Hoodie Black (US M) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/saint-laurent-50s-signature-hoodie-black-us-m) Hidden $275 $1,500 5.46x 2026-11-06 11:52 UTC [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-black-us-xl) Hidden $275 $1,060 3.86x 2026-11-09 19:39 UTC [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-black-us-xl) Hidden $275 $1,060 3.86x 2026-11-09 17:15 UTC [Supreme Box Logo Hooded Sweatshirt Black (US XL) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/supreme-box-logo-hooded-sweatshirt-black-us-xl) Hidden $275 $1,060 3.86x 2026-11-04 12:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=noir-case) [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) [CODE: FREEMAN 400$ LB](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/CODE%3A%20FREEMAN%20400%24%20LB) $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-10 14:30 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC [Soft Black Cat Plush Toy Pillow other](https://gambatracker.com/items/soft-black-cat-plush-toy-pillow) Hidden $275 $13.00 0.05x 2026-11-09 19:41 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $275 | 89.50% | 14 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $36.3K (131.8x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt