--- title: "Off-Chance case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Off-Chance ($2.52) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.28% from 20 items with odds, observed 64.48% over 6,254 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance rendered: 2026-11-11T14:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Off-Chance](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Off-Chance A box on Cases.gg (Budget), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance?window=all) Price · $2.52 Advertised RTP · 89.28% · EV $2.25 from 20 items Observed RTP, 30d · 64.48% · 6,254 openings, odds method Variance · 144.5× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 286 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 210 openings · below min 7 days · 57.67% ±32.25 5,338 openings 30 days · 64.48% ±29.79 6,254 openings since tracking started · 64.48% ±29.79 6,254 openings 25.0% 293.5% 562.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance?window=24h) | 210 | 398.73% ±162.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance?window=7d) | 5,338 | 57.67% ±32.2 | −1.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance) | 6,254 | 64.48% ±29.8 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/off-chance?window=all) | 6,254 | 64.48% ±29.8 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 20 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,254 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [OFF-WHITE Odsy-1000 White/SIlver SS21 (US M 12) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-odsy-1000-white-silver-ss21-us-m-12) | 1 in 10,000 | $996 | 4.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White Green Strike (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-green-strike-us-11) | 1 in 10,000 | $980 | 4.4% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low Off-White Lot 1 (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-lot-1-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $970 | 4.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low Off-White Pine Green (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-pine-green-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $798 | 3.5% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Blazer Mid Off-White Grim Reaper (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-mid-off-white-grim-reaper-us-9) | 1 in 10,000 | $785 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Off-White Quote "FOR MONEY" Bifold Wallet Black/White other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-quote-for-money-bifold-wallet-black-white) | 1 in 10,000 | $760 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Converse Chuck Taylor All Star 70 Hi Off-White (US 11.5) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/converse-chuck-taylor-all-star-70-hi-off-white-us-11-5) | 1 in 10,000 | $694 | 3.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Dunk Low Off-White University Gold (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-university-gold-us-7) | 1 in 10,000 | $665 | 3.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-8) | 1 in 10,000 | $611 | 2.7% | 1 | 0.6 | — | | [OFF-WHITE Arrows Bucket Widebrim Hat Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-arrows-bucket-widebrim-hat-black) | 1 in 5,000 | $568 | 5.0% | 2 | 1.3 | 1.60× | | [Nike Dunk Low Off-White University Gold (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-university-gold-us-9) | 1 in 10,000 | $510 | 2.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [OFF-WHITE Debossed Quote Chain Wallet Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-debossed-quote-chain-wallet-black) | 1 in 10,000 | $420 | 1.9% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [OFF-WHITE Caravaggio Arrows Mesh Shorts Black/Multicolor other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-caravaggio-arrows-mesh-shorts-black-multicolor) | 1 in 5,000 | $305 | 2.7% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Mid Off-White Pine Green (US 7) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-mid-off-white-pine-green-us-7) | 1 in 5,000 | $260 | 2.3% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× | | [Nike Air Force 1 Mid Off-White Pine Green (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-mid-off-white-pine-green-us-9) | 1 in 5,000 | $250 | 2.2% | 1 | 1.3 | 0.80× | | [OFF-WHITE Virgil Square Frame Sunglasses other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-virgil-square-frame-sunglasses) | 1 in 10,000 | $245 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — | | [OFF-WHITE Industrial Belt Yellow/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-industrial-belt-yellow-black) | 1 in 667 | $190 | 12.7% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.75× | | [Nike Blazer Low Off-White University Red (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-low-off-white-university-red-us-8) | 1 in 667 | $140 | 9.3% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× | | [Nike Blazer Low Off-White Black Electro Green (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-blazer-low-off-white-black-electro-green-us-9) | 1 in 200 | $125 | 27.8% | 31 | 31.3 | 0.99× | | [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) | 99.0% | $0.01 | 0.4% | 6,202 | 6191.5 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White Green Strike (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-green-strike-us-11) [thejunespirit](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/thejunespirit) $2.52 $980 388.9x 2026-11-11 00:51 UTC [Nike Dunk Low Off-White Pine Green (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-dunk-low-off-white-pine-green-us-8) Hidden $2.52 $798 316.7x 2026-11-11 00:16 UTC [Nike Air Rubber Dunk Off-White UNC (US 8) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-rubber-dunk-off-white-unc-us-8) Hidden $2.52 $611 242.5x 2026-11-03 22:06 UTC [OFF-WHITE Arrows Bucket Widebrim Hat Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-arrows-bucket-widebrim-hat-black) Hidden $2.52 $568 225.4x 2026-11-09 20:04 UTC [OFF-WHITE Arrows Bucket Widebrim Hat Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-arrows-bucket-widebrim-hat-black) Hidden $2.52 $568 225.4x 2026-11-08 16:10 UTC [Nike Air Force 1 Mid Off-White Pine Green (US 9) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-air-force-1-mid-off-white-pine-green-us-9) Hidden $2.52 $250 99.21x 2026-11-08 16:11 UTC [OFF-WHITE Industrial Belt Yellow/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-industrial-belt-yellow-black) Hidden $2.52 $190 75.40x 2026-11-11 00:54 UTC [OFF-WHITE Industrial Belt Yellow/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-industrial-belt-yellow-black) Hidden $2.52 $190 75.40x 2026-11-08 19:56 UTC [OFF-WHITE Industrial Belt Yellow/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-industrial-belt-yellow-black) Hidden $2.52 $190 75.40x 2026-11-06 03:17 UTC [OFF-WHITE Industrial Belt Yellow/Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/off-white-industrial-belt-yellow-black) Hidden $2.52 $190 75.40x 2026-11-06 01:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=off-chance) [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) [SavagePlays](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SavagePlays) $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC [$0.01 Voucher other](https://gambatracker.com/items/0-01-voucher) Hidden $2.52 $0.01 0.00x 2026-11-11 14:43 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.52 | 89.28% | 20 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $980 (388.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.28 on average: an expected loss of $10.72 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt