---
title: "On The Hook case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "On The Hook ($19.82) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.46% from 18 items with odds, observed 115.39% over 226 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook
rendered: 2026-11-11T21:46Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [On The Hook](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · On The Hook

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook?window=all)

Price · $19.82

Advertised RTP · 89.46% · EV $17.73 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 115.39% · 226 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 10.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 75.1% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 12 openings · below min

7 days · 120.94% ±36.26 214 openings

30 days · 115.39% ±35.28 226 openings

since tracking started · 115.39% ±35.28 226 openings

-0.5% 101.8% 204.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook?window=24h) | 12 | 50.24% ±153.1 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook?window=7d) | 214 | 120.94% ±36.3 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook) | 226 | 115.39% ±35.3 | +1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/on-the-hook?window=all) | 226 | 115.39% ±35.3 | +1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 226 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [SAGE Maverick 890-4 Fly Rod : 8wt 9'0"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sage-maverick-890-4-fly-rod-8wt-90) | 1 in 333 | $780 | 13.2% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [PENN Spinfisher VII Spinning Reel and Fishing Rod Combo other](https://gambatracker.com/items/penn-spinfisher-vii-spinning-reel-and-fishing-rod-combo) | 1 in 167 | $385 | 13.0% | 3 | 1.4 | 2.21× |
| [Pflueger President Spinning Fishing Reel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pflueger-president-spinning-fishing-reel) | 1 in 50 | $88.00 | 9.9% | 9 | 4.5 | 1.99× |
| [TIDEWE Bootfoot Chest Wader, 2-Ply Nylon/PVC Waterproof Fishing Hunting Waders with Boot Hanger for Men other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tidewe-bootfoot-chest-wader-2-ply-nylon-pvc-waterproof-fishing-hunting-waders-with-boot-hanger-for-men) | 1 in 50 | $65.00 | 7.3% | 0 | 4.5 | 0.00× |
| [MATEIN Fishing Backpack Tackle Box, Water Resistant Fishing Storage Bag with Rod Holders & Cooler other](https://gambatracker.com/items/matein-fishing-backpack-tackle-box-water-resistant-fishing-storage-bag-with-rod-holders-and-cooler) | 1 in 50 | $56.00 | 6.3% | 6 | 4.5 | 1.33× |
| [PLUSINNO Floating Fishing Net other](https://gambatracker.com/items/plusinno-floating-fishing-net) | 1 in 25 | $33.00 | 7.4% | 8 | 9.0 | 0.88× |
| [KastKing Centron & Centron Lite Spinning Reel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-centron-and-centron-lite-spinning-reel) | 1 in 25 | $32.00 | 7.2% | 10 | 9.0 | 1.11× |
| [Fishing-Shirt Dont Be Dumb Bass other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fishing-shirt-dont-be-dumb-bass) | 1 in 20 | $24.00 | 6.8% | 16 | 11.3 | 1.42× |
| [KastKing Sol Armis UPF 50 Boonie Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-sol-armis-upf-50-boonie-hat) | 1 in 20 | $20.00 | 5.6% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [Mens T Shirt Funny Fishing Joke other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-t-shirt-funny-fishing-joke) | 1 in 20 | $18.00 | 5.1% | 9 | 11.3 | 0.80× |
| [KastKing Fish Scale other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-fish-scale) | 1 in 15 | $13.00 | 4.8% | 19 | 14.7 | 1.29× |
| [Flambeau Outdoors 4007 Tuff Tainer, Fishing Tackle Tray Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/flambeau-outdoors-4007-tuff-tainer-fishing-tackle-tray-box) | 1 in 13 | $9.50 | 4.0% | 17 | 17.0 | 1.00× |
| [Clear Fishing Wire other](https://gambatracker.com/items/clear-fishing-wire) | 1 in 13 | $6.00 | 2.7% | 20 | 18.1 | 1.11× |
| [Berkley Coated Fishing Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/berkley-coated-fishing-gloves) | 1 in 12 | $5.50 | 2.5% | 11 | 18.3 | 0.60× |
| [Multi Jointed Fishing Lures other](https://gambatracker.com/items/multi-jointed-fishing-lures) | 10.0% | $3.00 | 1.7% | 25 | 22.6 | 1.11× |
| [Rebel Lures Bumble Bug Topwater / Crankbait Fishing Lure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rebel-lures-bumble-bug-topwater-crankbait-fishing-lure) | 10.0% | $2.50 | 1.4% | 24 | 22.6 | 1.06× |
| [BOOYAH Boo Jig Bass Fishing Lure with Weed Guard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/booyah-boo-jig-bass-fishing-lure-with-weed-guard) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.6% | 20 | 22.6 | 0.88× |
| [Can of Corn other](https://gambatracker.com/items/can-of-corn) | 10.0% | $0.68 | 0.4% | 17 | 22.6 | 0.75× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[SAGE Maverick 890-4 Fly Rod : 8wt 9'0"other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sage-maverick-890-4-fly-rod-8wt-90) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $19.82 $780 39.35x 2026-11-06 06:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=on-the-hook)

[KastKing Fish Scale other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-fish-scale) Hidden $19.82 $13.00 0.66x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[KastKing Fish Scale other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-fish-scale) Hidden $19.82 $13.00 0.66x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[KastKing Fish Scale other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-fish-scale) Hidden $19.82 $13.00 0.66x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Rebel Lures Bumble Bug Topwater / Crankbait Fishing Lure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rebel-lures-bumble-bug-topwater-crankbait-fishing-lure) Hidden $19.82 $2.50 0.13x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Berkley Coated Fishing Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/berkley-coated-fishing-gloves) Hidden $19.82 $5.50 0.28x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[BOOYAH Boo Jig Bass Fishing Lure with Weed Guard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/booyah-boo-jig-bass-fishing-lure-with-weed-guard) [FamiChiki](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/FamiChiki) $19.82 $1.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 19:51 UTC

[Berkley Coated Fishing Gloves other](https://gambatracker.com/items/berkley-coated-fishing-gloves) Hidden $19.82 $5.50 0.28x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[BOOYAH Boo Jig Bass Fishing Lure with Weed Guard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/booyah-boo-jig-bass-fishing-lure-with-weed-guard) Hidden $19.82 $1.00 0.05x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[KastKing Centron & Centron Lite Spinning Reel other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kastking-centron-and-centron-lite-spinning-reel) Hidden $19.82 $32.00 1.61x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

[Mens T Shirt Funny Fishing Joke other](https://gambatracker.com/items/mens-t-shirt-funny-fishing-joke) Hidden $19.82 $18.00 0.91x 2026-11-11 15:14 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $19.82 | 89.46% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $780 (39.35x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.46 on average: an expected loss of $10.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt