--- title: "Path of the Hokage case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Path of the Hokage ($45.64) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 101.01% over 376 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage rendered: 2026-11-13T02:50Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Path of the Hokage](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Path of the Hokage A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage?window=all) Price · $45.64 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $40.84 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 101.01% · 376 openings, odds method Variance · 2.8× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 12 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 78.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 48 openings · below min 7 days · 97.21% ±21.77 228 openings 30 days · 101.01% ±16.95 376 openings since tracking started · 101.01% ±16.95 376 openings 25.5% 73.5% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage?window=24h) | 48 | 73.35% ±47.4 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage?window=7d) | 228 | 97.21% ±21.8 | +0.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage) | 376 | 101.01% ±17.0 | +1.3σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/path-of-the-hokage?window=all) | 376 | 101.01% ±17.0 | +1.3σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 388 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-naruto-shippuden-kurama-mode-glow-gamestop-exclusive-6-inch-figure-97) | 1 in 133 | $557 | 10.2% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× | | [Crocs Classic Clog Naruto Itachi (US 11) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/crocs-classic-clog-naruto-itachi-us-11) | 1 in 100 | $300 | 7.3% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [Naruto - The Complete Series - Blu-ray - Limited Edition other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-the-complete-series-blu-ray-limited-edition) | 1 in 100 | $300 | 7.3% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [Higround Naruto x Kakashi Performance Base65 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-naruto-x-kakashi-performance-base65) | 1 in 100 | $288 | 7.1% | 5 | 3.9 | 1.29× | | [Naruto Box Set 1: Volumes 1-27 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-box-set-1-volumes-1-27) | 1 in 50 | $245 | 12.0% | 10 | 7.8 | 1.29× | | [Naruto Uzumaki G.E.M. Series 15th Anniversary Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-uzumaki-g-e-m-series-15th-anniversary-figure) | 1 in 40 | $150 | 9.2% | 8 | 9.7 | 0.82× | | [Naruto Shippuden - Akatsuki Letterman Jacket other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-shippuden-akatsuki-letterman-jacket) | 1 in 33 | $96.00 | 7.1% | 12 | 11.6 | 1.03× | | [Kakashi Hatake Nendoroid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kakashi-hatake-nendoroid) | 1 in 20 | $60.00 | 7.3% | 24 | 19.4 | 1.24× | | [Itachi Displate other](https://gambatracker.com/items/itachi-displate) | 1 in 20 | $58.00 | 7.1% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× | | [Naruto Shippuden Cloud Ramen Bowl Bundle other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-shippuden-cloud-ramen-bowl-bundle) | 1 in 20 | $28.00 | 3.4% | 25 | 19.4 | 1.29× | | [Youtooz Naruto 4.6" Sasuke Anime Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/youtooz-naruto-4-6-sasuke-anime-figure) | 1 in 20 | $27.49 | 3.4% | 19 | 19.4 | 0.98× | | [Naruto - Scroll Art other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-scroll-art) | 1 in 20 | $22.00 | 2.7% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× | | [Silver Naruto 8.7inch Kunai other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-naruto-8-7inch-kunai) | 1 in 13 | $19.00 | 3.5% | 32 | 29.1 | 1.10× | | [Naruto Hanging Poster Canvas other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-hanging-poster-canvas) | 1 in 20 | $17.15 | 2.1% | 18 | 19.4 | 0.93× | | [Kakashi’s Mask & Headband Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kakashis-mask-and-headband-set) | 1 in 13 | $14.00 | 2.6% | 23 | 29.1 | 0.79× | | [Naruto 7 Inch Sitting Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-7-inch-sitting-plush) | 10.0% | $12.00 | 2.9% | 35 | 38.8 | 0.90× | | [Naruto Shippuden Konoha Group A5 Notebook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-shippuden-konoha-group-a5-notebook) | 15.0% | $7.00 | 2.6% | 54 | 58.2 | 0.93× | | [Akatsuki Cloud AirPod Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/akatsuki-cloud-airpod-case) | 18.8% | $4.80 | 2.2% | 73 | 72.8 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-naruto-shippuden-kurama-mode-glow-gamestop-exclusive-6-inch-figure-97) Hidden $45.64 $557 12.20x 2026-11-06 23:04 UTC [Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-naruto-shippuden-kurama-mode-glow-gamestop-exclusive-6-inch-figure-97) Hidden $45.64 $557 12.20x 2026-11-06 02:59 UTC [Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-naruto-shippuden-kurama-mode-glow-gamestop-exclusive-6-inch-figure-97) [Ncthcfoodie code DGN](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Ncthcfoodie%20code%20DGN) $45.64 $557 12.20x 2026-11-06 02:58 UTC [Funko Pop! Animation Naruto Shippuden Kurama Mode (Glow) GameStop Exclusive 6 Inch Figure #97 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-animation-naruto-shippuden-kurama-mode-glow-gamestop-exclusive-6-inch-figure-97) Hidden $45.64 $557 12.20x 2026-11-06 02:56 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=path-of-the-hokage) [Kakashi’s Mask & Headband Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kakashis-mask-and-headband-set) Hidden $45.64 $14.00 0.31x 2026-11-12 22:24 UTC [Naruto Shippuden Konoha Group A5 Notebook other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-shippuden-konoha-group-a5-notebook) Hidden $45.64 $7.00 0.15x 2026-11-12 22:24 UTC [Naruto 7 Inch Sitting Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-7-inch-sitting-plush) Hidden $45.64 $12.00 0.26x 2026-11-12 22:24 UTC [Akatsuki Cloud AirPod Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/akatsuki-cloud-airpod-case) Hidden $45.64 $4.80 0.11x 2026-11-12 22:24 UTC [Silver Naruto 8.7inch Kunai other](https://gambatracker.com/items/silver-naruto-8-7inch-kunai) Hidden $45.64 $19.00 0.42x 2026-11-12 22:24 UTC [Naruto 7 Inch Sitting Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-7-inch-sitting-plush) [Rr1CSI](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Rr1CSI) $45.64 $12.00 0.26x 2026-11-12 22:24 UTC [Naruto Uzumaki G.E.M. Series 15th Anniversary Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/naruto-uzumaki-g-e-m-series-15th-anniversary-figure) Hidden $45.64 $150 3.29x 2026-11-12 20:47 UTC [Kakashi Hatake Nendoroid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kakashi-hatake-nendoroid) Hidden $45.64 $60.00 1.31x 2026-11-12 20:47 UTC [Kakashi Hatake Nendoroid other](https://gambatracker.com/items/kakashi-hatake-nendoroid) Hidden $45.64 $60.00 1.31x 2026-11-12 20:47 UTC [Akatsuki Cloud AirPod Case container](https://gambatracker.com/items/akatsuki-cloud-airpod-case) Hidden $45.64 $4.80 0.11x 2026-11-12 20:47 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $45.64 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $557 (12.20x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt