---
title: "Pen & Paper case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "Pen & Paper ($17.37) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.48% from 18 items with odds, observed 80.97% over 671 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper
rendered: 2026-11-11T23:32Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Pen & Paper](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Pen & Paper

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper?window=all)

Price · $17.37

Advertised RTP · 89.48% · EV $15.54 from 18 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.97% · 671 openings, odds method

Variance · 15.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 57 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 85.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 94 openings · below min

7 days · 92.98% ±35.89 461 openings

30 days · 80.97% ±29.75 671 openings

since tracking started · 80.97% ±29.75 671 openings

20.5% 100.8% 181.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper?window=24h) | 94 | 100.64% ±79.5 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper?window=7d) | 461 | 92.98% ±35.9 | +0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper) | 671 | 80.97% ±29.7 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pen-and-paper?window=all) | 671 | 80.97% ±29.7 | −0.6σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 671 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Montblanc Meisterstück Platinum Line Hommage à W.A. Mozart Ballpoint Pen (small size) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/montblanc-meisterstuck-platinum-line-hommage-a-w-a-mozart-ballpoint-pen-small-size) | 1 in 133 | $650 | 31.4% | 2 | 5.0 | 0.40× |
| [Lamy 2000 black - elegant Fountain Pen in robust fibreglass barrel - 14 ct. gold nib, partially platinum-plated - nib size F other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lamy-2000-black-elegant-fountain-pen-in-robust-fibreglass-barrel-14-ct-gold-nib-partially-platinum-plated-nib-size-f) | 1 in 100 | $310 | 19.9% | 6 | 6.7 | 0.89× |
| [Faber-Castell Ambition Coconut Wood Rollerball Pen other](https://gambatracker.com/items/faber-castell-ambition-coconut-wood-rollerball-pen) | 1 in 100 | $245 | 15.8% | 12 | 6.7 | 1.79× |
| [LEUCHTTURM1917 Bullet Journal Stealth Collector's Set - All Black Official BuJo Notebook, Drehgriffel Pen, and Pen Loop other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leuchtturm1917-bullet-journal-stealth-collectors-set-all-black-official-bujo-notebook-drehgriffel-pen-and-pen-loop) | 1 in 67 | $90.00 | 8.7% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [LEUCHTTURM1917 - Notebook Hardcover Medium A5-251 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/leuchtturm1917-notebook-hardcover-medium-a5-251) | 1 in 40 | $25.00 | 4.0% | 17 | 16.8 | 1.01× |
| [Sharpie Color Burst Permanent Marker Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sharpie-color-burst-permanent-marker-set) | 1 in 40 | $21.00 | 3.4% | 20 | 16.8 | 1.19× |
| [Classic Leather Notebook Journal, Softcover, Tuxedo Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/classic-leather-notebook-journal-softcover-tuxedo-black) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 3.2% | 11 | 16.8 | 0.66× |
| [Tombow 56189 Dual Brush Pen Art Markers other](https://gambatracker.com/items/tombow-56189-dual-brush-pen-art-markers) | 1 in 40 | $20.00 | 3.2% | 19 | 16.8 | 1.13× |
| [Rhodia #16 Wirebound Notepad 5.8" x 8.3" Dot Pad, Orange Cover other](https://gambatracker.com/items/rhodia-16-wirebound-notepad-5-8-x-8-3-dot-pad-orange-cover) | 1 in 20 | $7.75 | 2.5% | 31 | 33.6 | 0.92× |
| [Clairefontaine Classic Wirebound Notebooks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/clairefontaine-classic-wirebound-notebooks) | 1 in 20 | $6.00 | 1.9% | 37 | 33.6 | 1.10× |
| [3x Washi Tape other](https://gambatracker.com/items/3x-washi-tape) | 1 in 20 | $3.80 | 1.2% | 31 | 33.6 | 0.92× |
| [Pen Loop Holder for Notebooks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pen-loop-holder-for-notebooks) | 1 in 13 | $2.58 | 1.2% | 49 | 50.3 | 0.97× |
| [ZUFECY Pen Holder Stand for Desk other](https://gambatracker.com/items/zufecy-pen-holder-stand-for-desk) | 1 in 13 | $2.10 | 1.0% | 50 | 50.3 | 0.99× |
| [Ink Cartridges other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ink-cartridges) | 10.0% | $1.50 | 1.0% | 70 | 67.1 | 1.04× |
| [Pilot G2 Gel Rollerball Pen other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pilot-g2-gel-rollerball-pen) | 10.0% | $1.00 | 0.6% | 65 | 67.1 | 0.97× |
| [Sticky Notes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticky-notes) | 10.0% | $0.65 | 0.4% | 83 | 67.1 | 1.24× |
| [STAEDTKER Eraser other](https://gambatracker.com/items/staedtker-eraser) | 10.8% | $0.55 | 0.4% | 68 | 72.1 | 0.94× |
| [Binder Clip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/binder-clip) | 15.0% | $0.10 | 0.1% | 91 | 100.6 | 0.90× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Montblanc Meisterstück Platinum Line Hommage à W.A. Mozart Ballpoint Pen (small size) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/montblanc-meisterstuck-platinum-line-hommage-a-w-a-mozart-ballpoint-pen-small-size) [SavagePlays](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/SavagePlays) $17.37 $650 37.42x 2026-11-11 14:34 UTC

[Montblanc Meisterstück Platinum Line Hommage à W.A. Mozart Ballpoint Pen (small size) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/montblanc-meisterstuck-platinum-line-hommage-a-w-a-mozart-ballpoint-pen-small-size) Hidden $17.37 $650 37.42x 2026-11-06 06:50 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=pen-and-paper)

[Binder Clip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/binder-clip) Hidden $17.37 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Binder Clip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/binder-clip) Hidden $17.37 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Clairefontaine Classic Wirebound Notebooks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/clairefontaine-classic-wirebound-notebooks) Hidden $17.37 $6.00 0.35x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Binder Clip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/binder-clip) Hidden $17.37 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Lamy 2000 black - elegant Fountain Pen in robust fibreglass barrel - 14 ct. gold nib, partially platinum-plated - nib size F other](https://gambatracker.com/items/lamy-2000-black-elegant-fountain-pen-in-robust-fibreglass-barrel-14-ct-gold-nib-partially-platinum-plated-nib-size-f) Hidden $17.37 $310 17.85x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Pen Loop Holder for Notebooks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pen-loop-holder-for-notebooks) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $17.37 $2.58 0.15x 2026-11-11 15:13 UTC

[Sticky Notes other](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticky-notes) Hidden $17.37 $0.65 0.04x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[Binder Clip other](https://gambatracker.com/items/binder-clip) Hidden $17.37 $0.10 0.01x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[Pen Loop Holder for Notebooks other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pen-loop-holder-for-notebooks) Hidden $17.37 $2.58 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

[Pilot G2 Gel Rollerball Pen other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pilot-g2-gel-rollerball-pen) Hidden $17.37 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 14:37 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $17.37 | 89.48% | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit $650 (37.42x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.48 on average: an expected loss of $10.52 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt