--- title: "Pokémon case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pokémon ($87.20) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.49% from 18 items with odds, observed 73.68% over 390 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke rendered: 2026-11-11T18:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Pokémon](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Pokémon A box on Cases.gg (Pokemon), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke?window=all) Price · $87.20 Advertised RTP · 89.49% · EV $78.04 from 18 items Observed RTP, 30d · 73.68% · 390 openings, odds method Variance · 24.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 83 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 93.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 54 openings · below min 7 days · 276 openings · below min 30 days · 390 openings · below min since tracking started · 390 openings · below min -0.5% 106.8% 214.0% **Small sample.** 390 openings and 4.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke?window=24h) | 54 | 82.02% ±131.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke?window=7d) | 276 | 84.61% ±58.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke) | 390 | 73.68% ±48.8 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/poke?window=all) | 390 | 73.68% ±48.8 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 390 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Fendi x FRGMT x Pokemon FF Fabric Bag Baguette Pouch other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fendi-x-frgmt-x-pokemon-ff-fabric-bag-baguette-pouch) | 1 in 500 | $5,160 | 13.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Fendi x FRGMT x Pokemon Nappa Leather Bag Baguette other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fendi-x-frgmt-x-pokemon-nappa-leather-bag-baguette) | 1 in 1,000 | $5,085 | 6.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — | | [Daniel Arsham x Pokemon Crystalized Pikachu Future Relic (Edition of 500) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/daniel-arsham-x-pokemon-crystalized-pikachu-future-relic-edition-of-500) | 1 in 500 | $4,800 | 12.3% | 0 | 0.8 | — | | [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) | 1 in 500 | $2,520 | 6.5% | 3 | 0.8 | — | | [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) | 1 in 200 | $2,500 | 16.0% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× | | [Fendi x FRGMT x Pokemon FF Fabric Card Holder other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fendi-x-frgmt-x-pokemon-ff-fabric-card-holder) | 1 in 333 | $1,400 | 5.4% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× | | [100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Golden Bear Varsity Jacket - Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-golden-bear-varsity-jacket-black) | 1 in 200 | $1,087 | 7.0% | 1 | 1.9 | 0.51× | | [Baccarat x Pokemon Poke Ball Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/baccarat-x-pokemon-poke-ball-figure) | 1 in 200 | $600 | 3.8% | 6 | 1.9 | 3.08× | | [Higround x Pokemon Poké Ball Basecamp 65 Keyboard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/higround-x-pokemon-poke-ball-basecamp-65-keyboard) | 1 in 133 | $500 | 4.8% | 4 | 2.9 | 1.37× | | [The Wand Company Pokémon Original Poké Ball Authentic Replicas - Original Poké Ball other](https://gambatracker.com/items/the-wand-company-pokemon-original-poke-ball-authentic-replicas-original-poke-ball) | 1 in 100 | $500 | 6.4% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [Pokémon TCG 25th Anniversary Celebrations - Elite Trainer Box other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-tcg-25th-anniversary-celebrations-elite-trainer-box) | 1 in 100 | $445 | 5.7% | 3 | 3.9 | 0.77× | | [100 Thieves x Pokémon Bulbasaur Ivysaur Vest - Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-bulbasaur-ivysaur-vest-black) | 1 in 100 | $228 | 2.9% | 2 | 3.9 | 0.51× | | [Funko Pop! Games Pokemon Mewtwo (Flocked) SDCC Exclusive Figure #581 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/funko-pop-games-pokemon-mewtwo-flocked-sdcc-exclusive-figure-581) | 1 in 133 | $125 | 1.2% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.68× | | [Pokémon Legends: Arceus - US Version other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-legends-arceus-us-version) | 1 in 100 | $64.00 | 0.8% | 0 | 3.9 | 0.00× | | [Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Inspired by Self-Portrait with Grey Felt Hat Journal other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-center-x-van-gogh-museum-pikachu-inspired-by-self-portrait-with-grey-felt-hat-journal) | 1 in 50 | $45.00 | 1.2% | 6 | 7.8 | 0.77× | | [Pokemon Center x Van Gogh Museum: Pikachu Plush other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-center-x-van-gogh-museum-pikachu-plush) | 1 in 20 | $31.00 | 2.0% | 21 | 19.5 | 1.08× | | [Stainless Steel Vacuum Insulated Bottle, Pokemon other](https://gambatracker.com/items/stainless-steel-vacuum-insulated-bottle-pokemon) | 1 in 20 | $19.00 | 1.2% | 21 | 19.5 | 1.08× | | [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) | 80.0% | $3.00 | 3.1% | 316 | 312.0 | 1.01× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) Hidden $87.20 $2,520 28.90x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) Hidden $87.20 $2,520 28.90x 2026-11-10 14:27 UTC [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) Hidden $87.20 $2,520 28.90x 2026-11-07 01:22 UTC [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) Hidden $87.20 $2,500 28.67x 2026-11-09 22:28 UTC [Charizard GX 2017 Pokemon TCG, Burning Shadows Full Art #150/147, PSA 9 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/charizard-gx-2017-pokemon-tcg-burning-shadows-full-art-150-147-psa-9) Hidden $87.20 $2,500 28.67x 2026-11-03 16:53 UTC [100 Thieves x Pokémon Pikachu Golden Bear Varsity Jacket - Black other](https://gambatracker.com/items/100-thieves-x-pokemon-pikachu-golden-bear-varsity-jacket-black) Hidden $87.20 $1,087 12.47x 2026-11-10 06:33 UTC [Baccarat x Pokemon Poke Ball Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/baccarat-x-pokemon-poke-ball-figure) Hidden $87.20 $600 6.88x 2026-11-10 23:57 UTC [Baccarat x Pokemon Poke Ball Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/baccarat-x-pokemon-poke-ball-figure) Hidden $87.20 $600 6.88x 2026-11-06 08:02 UTC [Baccarat x Pokemon Poke Ball Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/baccarat-x-pokemon-poke-ball-figure) Hidden $87.20 $600 6.88x 2026-11-05 23:43 UTC [Baccarat x Pokemon Poke Ball Figure other](https://gambatracker.com/items/baccarat-x-pokemon-poke-ball-figure) [polaoetids](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/polaoetids) $87.20 $600 6.88x 2026-11-05 03:52 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=poke) [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Bearbrick Pokemon Pikachu Flocky 1000% other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bearbrick-pokemon-pikachu-flocky-1000) Hidden $87.20 $2,520 28.90x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) [EriksZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/EriksZ) $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-11 08:59 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC [Pokemon Cards other](https://gambatracker.com/items/pokemon-cards) Hidden $87.20 $3.00 0.03x 2026-11-10 23:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $87.20 | 89.49% | 18 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $2,520 (28.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.49 on average: an expected loss of $10.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt