--- title: "Polar Giftbox case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops" description: "Polar Giftbox ($4.67) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.36% from 8 items with odds, observed 81.11% over 736 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox rendered: 2026-11-11T22:25Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Polar Giftbox](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Polar Giftbox A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox?window=all) Price · $4.67 Advertised RTP · 89.36% · EV $4.17 from 8 items Observed RTP, 30d · 81.11% · 736 openings, odds method Variance · 6.2× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 84.0% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 68 openings · below min 7 days · 87.69% ±22.22 481 openings 30 days · 81.11% ±17.96 736 openings since tracking started · 81.11% ±17.96 736 openings 12.5% 72.3% 132.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox?window=24h) | 68 | 72.46% ±59.1 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox?window=7d) | 481 | 87.69% ±22.2 | −0.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox) | 736 | 81.11% ±18.0 | −0.9σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polar-giftbox?window=all) | 736 | 81.11% ±18.0 | −0.9σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 736 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [Shatterproof Christmas Ball Ornaments Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/shatterproof-christmas-ball-ornaments-set) | 1 in 200 | $100 | 12.0% | 4 | 3.7 | 1.09× | | [Bestbuy $50 Giftcard other](https://gambatracker.com/items/bestbuy-50-giftcard) | 1 in 67 | $50.00 | 18.0% | 10 | 11.0 | 0.91× | | [50 Hareruya Sleeves (Gold) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/50-hareruya-sleeves-gold) | 1 in 33 | $35.00 | 25.2% | 17 | 22.1 | 0.77× | | [Applebee's Gift Card other](https://gambatracker.com/items/applebees-gift-card) | 1 in 33 | $25.00 | 18.0% | 21 | 22.1 | 0.95× | | [Joyride Sweets Candy Sour Watermelon Wedges other](https://gambatracker.com/items/joyride-sweets-candy-sour-watermelon-wedges) | 1 in 25 | $14.00 | 13.4% | 24 | 29.4 | 0.82× | | [Cucumber Doll other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cucumber-doll) | 1 in 25 | $5.00 | 4.8% | 30 | 29.4 | 1.02× | | [Chocolate Bar other](https://gambatracker.com/items/chocolate-bar) | 15.0% | $1.50 | 5.4% | 120 | 110.4 | 1.09× | | [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) | 69.0% | $0.20 | 3.3% | 510 | 507.8 | 1.00× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 20:59 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=polar-giftbox) [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Joyride Sweets Candy Sour Watermelon Wedges other](https://gambatracker.com/items/joyride-sweets-candy-sour-watermelon-wedges) Hidden $4.67 $14.00 3.00x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) [Angry Cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Angry%20Cat) $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:30 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Cucumber Doll other](https://gambatracker.com/items/cucumber-doll) Hidden $4.67 $5.00 1.07x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC [Green Apple other](https://gambatracker.com/items/green-apple) Hidden $4.67 $0.20 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:29 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.67 | 89.36% | 8 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.36 on average: an expected loss of $10.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt