---
title: "Polo case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "Polo ($400.95) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 82.01% over 6 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo
rendered: 2026-11-13T04:45Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Polo](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo)

# [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Polo

A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo?window=all)

Price · $400.95

Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $358.85 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.01% · 6 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 86.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 6 openings · below min

30 days · 6 openings · below min

since tracking started · 6 openings · below min

-0.5% 82.0% 164.5%

**Small sample.** 6 openings and 1.7 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo?window=7d) | 6 | 82.01% ±82.0 | — | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo) | 6 | 82.01% ±82.0 | — | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/polo?window=all) | 6 | 82.01% ±82.0 | — | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [Dior x KAWS Long-Sleeved Polo Shirt US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/dior-x-kaws-long-sleeved-polo-shirt-us-l) | 1 in 133 | $3,433 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Louis Vuitton Embroidered Cotton Pique Polo US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/louis-vuitton-embroidered-cotton-pique-polo-us-m) | 1 in 100 | $2,520 | 7.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Miu Miu Wool And Cashmere Polo Sweater Navy US 38 other](https://gambatracker.com/items/miu-miu-wool-and-cashmere-polo-sweater-navy-us-38) | 1 in 133 | $1,880 | 3.9% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Polo Ralph Lauren Yankees Bear Sweater US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/polo-ralph-lauren-yankees-bear-sweater-us-m) | 1 in 50 | $1,190 | 6.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [Gucci x Adidas Piquet Polo Shirt Blue US S other](https://gambatracker.com/items/gucci-x-adidas-piquet-polo-shirt-blue-us-s) | 1 in 33 | $682 | 5.7% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Moncler Logo Polo Shirt Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/moncler-logo-polo-shirt-black-us-l) | 1 in 33 | $462 | 3.9% | 1 | 0.2 | — |
| [Nike x Cactus Plant Flea Market Longsleeve Polo Natural (Asia Sizing) ASIA XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-x-cactus-plant-flea-market-longsleeve-polo-natural-asia-sizing-asia-xl) | 1 in 33 | $458 | 3.8% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [adidas x Edison Chen Crochet Polo Shirt US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-x-edison-chen-crochet-polo-shirt-us-m) | 15.0% | $380 | 15.9% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [Burberry Hartford Check Placket Polo US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burberry-hartford-check-placket-polo-us-m) | 1 in 13 | $378 | 7.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Nike x Cactus Plant Flea Market Longsleeve Polo Multicolor (US L) other](https://gambatracker.com/items/nike-x-cactus-plant-flea-market-longsleeve-polo-multicolor-us-l) | 1 in 11 | $373 | 9.4% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Fear of God Essentials Fleece Polo (FW24) US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-fleece-polo-fw24-us-m) | 25.0% | $190 | 13.2% | 1 | 1.5 | 0.67× |
| [Polo Ralph Lauren Double-Knit Full-Zip Hoodie US XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/polo-ralph-lauren-double-knit-full-zip-hoodie-us-xl) | 30.0% | $185 | 15.5% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |

Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 13 Nov, 02:20 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=polo)

[Burberry Hartford Check Placket Polo US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burberry-hartford-check-placket-polo-us-m) Hidden $401 $378 0.94x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC

[Moncler Logo Polo Shirt Black US L other](https://gambatracker.com/items/moncler-logo-polo-shirt-black-us-l) Hidden $401 $462 1.15x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC

[Polo Ralph Lauren Double-Knit Full-Zip Hoodie US XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/polo-ralph-lauren-double-knit-full-zip-hoodie-us-xl) Hidden $401 $185 0.46x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC

[Burberry Hartford Check Placket Polo US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/burberry-hartford-check-placket-polo-us-m) Hidden $401 $378 0.94x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC

[adidas x Edison Chen Crochet Polo Shirt US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/adidas-x-edison-chen-crochet-polo-shirt-us-m) Hidden $401 $380 0.95x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC

[Fear of God Essentials Fleece Polo (FW24) US M other](https://gambatracker.com/items/fear-of-god-essentials-fleece-polo-fw24-us-m) [Palm Beach Pete](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/Palm%20Beach%20Pete) $401 $190 0.47x 2026-11-10 08:34 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $401 | 89.50% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed other 100.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt