--- title: "Pony Show case on Cases.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Pony Show ($415.36) on Cases.gg, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 89.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 96.39% over 102 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show rendered: 2026-11-11T19:58Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) / [Pony Show](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show) # [Cases.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/cases-gg) · Pony Show A box on Cases.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Cases.gg's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show?window=all) Price · $415.36 Advertised RTP · 89.50% · EV $371.74 from 12 items Observed RTP, 30d · 96.39% · 102 openings, odds method Variance · 89.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 200 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 99.1% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 102 openings · below min 30 days · 102 openings · below min since tracking started · 102 openings · below min -0.5% 384.3% 769.0% **Small sample.** 102 openings and 0.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show?window=24h) | 6 | 9.91% ±758.6 | — | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show?window=7d) | 102 | 96.39% ±184.0 | — | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show) | 102 | 96.39% ±184.0 | — | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/cases-gg/pony-show?window=all) | 102 | 96.39% ±184.0 | — | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items and odds · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 102 openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E GT other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-mustang-mach-e-gt) | 1 in 1,000 | $68.5K | 18.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Ford Bronco Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-big-bend) | 1 in 1,000 | $55K | 14.8% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Ford Mustang Ecoboost Premium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-mustang-ecoboost-premium) | 1 in 1,000 | $48.4K | 13.0% | 0 | 0.1 | — | | [2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-sport-big-bend) | 1 in 500 | $38.5K | 20.7% | 1 | 0.2 | — | | [2024 Ford Maverick XL other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-maverick-xl) | 1 in 500 | $31.9K | 17.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [2016 Ford Mustang Ecoboost Premium other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2016-ford-mustang-ecoboost-premium) | 1 in 500 | $17.1K | 9.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — | | [Ford Mustang Blue Neon Clock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-blue-neon-clock) | 1 in 20 | $228 | 3.1% | 7 | 5.1 | 1.37× | | [Battery Tender 5 AMP 12V Battery Charger and Maintainer other](https://gambatracker.com/items/battery-tender-5-amp-12v-battery-charger-and-maintainer) | 1 in 20 | $125 | 1.7% | 2 | 5.1 | 0.39× | | [Ford Logo Smart Backpack other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-logo-smart-backpack) | 1 in 20 | $88.00 | 1.2% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-trucks-f-150-flag-patch-hat) | 1 in 20 | $28.00 | 0.4% | 3 | 5.1 | 0.59× | | [Ford Mustang Car Mat Coaster Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-car-mat-coaster-set) | 1 in 20 | $15.00 | 0.2% | 4 | 5.1 | 0.78× | | [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) | 74.1% | $1.00 | 0.2% | 82 | 75.6 | 1.08× | Values are Cases.gg's own item prices for physical goods; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `cases-gg:api/cases/details`, 11 Nov, 14:54 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-sport-big-bend) Hidden $415 $38.5K 92.69x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=cases-gg&case=pony-show) [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) Hidden $415 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Ford Mustang Car Mat Coaster Set other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-car-mat-coaster-set) Hidden $415 $15.00 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) Hidden $415 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) Hidden $415 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) Hidden $415 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Ford Mustang Blue Neon Clock other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-mustang-blue-neon-clock) [KICK/JUSTSAN666](https://gambatracker.com/players/cases-gg/KICK%2FJUSTSAN666) $415 $228 0.55x 2026-11-11 19:42 UTC [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) Hidden $415 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC [Ford Keychain other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-keychain) Hidden $415 $1.00 0.00x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC [2024 Ford Bronco Sport Big Bend other](https://gambatracker.com/items/2024-ford-bronco-sport-big-bend) Hidden $415 $38.5K 92.69x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC [Ford Trucks F-150 Flag Patch Hat other](https://gambatracker.com/items/ford-trucks-f-150-flag-patch-hat) Hidden $415 $28.00 0.07x 2026-11-07 14:20 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $415 | 89.50% | 12 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed other 100.0% best hit $38.5K (92.69x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.50 on average: an expected loss of $10.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt